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By Tom Hancock

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Here, we preview the Championship, League One and League Two play-off finals, with places in the Premier League, Championship and League One at stake.

Championship: Hull vs. Middlesbrough

What a wild ride it’s been to this year’s Championship play-off final. Has there ever been a build-up like it? Until Tuesday just gone, the ‘richest game in football’ (as well as a place in the Premier League, there’s £220m in prize money up for grabs) was meant to be between Hull City and Southampton – but the ‘Spygate’ saga lingered over the latter.

Rumbled when a man was caught filming a Middlesbrough training session prior to the first leg of their play-off semi-final against Southampton, it came to light that the Saints had spied on opponents on multiple occasions. The club admitted as much and, after a disciplinary hearing, were thrown out of the play-offs – having originally beaten Boro 2-1 on aggregate – and slapped with a four-point deduction for the start of next season.

Southampton lost an appeal against their punishment on Wednesday and Middlesbrough, whose players had been on standby and returned to training following the verdict, will face Hull at Wembley. Both sides are looking to end nine-year top-flight absences, having been relegated from the Premier League together at the end of the 2016/17 season.

The whole saga has affected both teams, Hull having been expecting to play Southampton and Middlesbrough having been unsure if they’d even be playing at all until a week after their initial semi-final elimination. Whether that will be any kind of leveller on Saturday remains to be seen, but Hull and Boro each beat the other away from home during the regular season – so it’s all square in that sense.

Hull climbed into the play-offs on the final day, ending a run of six games without victory to come from behind and beat Norwich City. And that seemed to give them a big boost for the semis, where they drew 0-0 with Millwall in the home first leg before producing a dominant performance to win 2-0 away in the second leg and on aggregate – keeping back-to-back clean sheets for the first time since February, a run they’ll hope they can extend with the likes of heroic goalkeeper Ivor Pandur and experienced defender John Egan – the latter twice promoted to the Premier League with Sheffield United.

Winger Mohamed Belloumi was Hull’s hero that night in South East London, coming off the bench to inspire the Tigers to Wembley, so he might just have played his way into Sergej Jakirović’s starting 11 for the final. And Jakirović will be relying on the likes of Belloumi and 18-goal top scorer Oli McBurnie to prise open a Middlesbrough side which gave up the lowest Expected Goals (xG) during the Championship regular campaign (44.1 at an average of 0.95 per game).

Boro were in contention for a top-two finish on the final day, but they still have a shot at promotion amid a season of managerial upheaval, Kim Hellberg having succeeded Rob Edwards in November after Edwards left for Wolves. Their aforementioned stinginess at the back has underpinned their push towards a Premier League return, with Teesside-born captain Dael Fry and Luke Ayling – a veteran of three EFL promotion-winning campaigns – often joined by January signing Adilson Malanda in a back three – which Hull also deployed in the second leg of the semis.

At the other end, Middlesbrough will hope that Tommy Conway and David Strelec can rekindle the scoring form that saw them bag eight goals between them in the final six regular-season matches, as they go in search of their first Wembley goal since Fabrizio Ravanelli struck against Leicester City in the 1997 EFL Cup final.

Hull are looking to make it three Championship play-off final wins out of three, having triumphed 1-0 in 2008 and 2016; Boro will be out to banish the memory of their last appearance in this game, a 2-0 defeat to Norwich in 2015.

League One: Bolton vs. Stockport

It’s an all-Greater Manchester affair in League One, where either Stockport County or Bolton Wanderers will reach the Championship at their local rivals’ expense. Stockport haven’t played second-tier football for 24 years and were in the fifth tier as recently as 2019 – when Bolton’s latest Championship stint came to an end.

The League One play-offs were the tightest in the EFL this season, with just two points separating the four semi-finalists – and, indeed, these two teams. Stockport did have the edge during the regular campaign, beating Bolton 2-0 at home on the opening day – but last month’s reverse fixture finished 2-2, which might just be a stronger indicator of how this crunch clash will play out.

Managed by Dave Challinor – who has four non-League play-off successes on his CV – Stockport recorded the joint third-most victories in the third tier this term, winning 22 of their 46 regular-season games. They also boast the joint second-highest scorer in League One, Kyle Wootton (19 goals) – who, along with playmaking master Ollie Norwood (11 assists), will be key to the Hatters’ chances at Wembley.

Bolton somewhat stumbled into the play-offs, managing only one win in six before rediscovering form to beat Bradford City 1-0 in both legs of the semis. In Steven Schumacher, they have a boss who knows what it takes to get out of this league, having guided Plymouth Argyle to the title three years ago. And the Trotters’ promotion hopes could hinge on their defensive rigidity – founded on a centre-back partnership of Eoin Toal and Chris Forino, Bolton gave up the second lowest Expected Goals (xG) in League One this term.

Both these sides have won play-off finals in the past – Stockport one and Bolton two – though both lost on their last visit to the national stadium. This time, only one of them will experience that unwanted feeling.

League Two: Notts County vs. Salford

League Two sees another Greater Manchester side vying for promotion in Salford City – aiming to reach the third tier for the very first time – who take on Notts County, looking to make it back to League One after 11 years away. Salford and County saw off Grimsby Town and Chesterfield respectively in the semi-finals.

Salford are coached by Karl Robinson, who’s looking to make it fifth time lucky in the play-offs after two unsuccessful campaigns apiece with MK Dons and Oxford United. In the Notts County dugout is former Northern Ireland international Martin Paterson – still early in his managerial career but a Championship play-off winner with Burnley back in 2009.

Finishing the regular season fourth and fifth respectively, Salford and Notts County were, statistically, the best two teams in the League Two play-offs – indeed, Salford won more games than any other team in the division (25), with County just one behind them in that regard. Salford are among the fourth tier’s top creators, averaging 1.49 xG per game; County rank joint second for xG conceded (1.02 per game) – it could be an intriguing battle of wits in the capital, where temperatures are forecast to top 30C on Monday.

Psychologically, Salford might just have the upper hand, having beaten Notts County 2-1 home and away during the regular campaign. But both sides have tasted Wembley glory in recent times, Salford winning the National League play-off final there in 2019 and County doing likewise in 2023.

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(Images from IMAGO)

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