Women's Super League predictions: Man City and Arsenal backed for derby victories, Chelsea eye record

Going into matchday nine, there is a new name at the top of the Women's Super League table.

Manchester City leapfrogged Chelsea at the summit by beating Everton 2-1 last week, while Sonia Bompastor's Blues could only manage a 1-1 draw at Arsenal.

Despite their new status as leaders, City are only assigned a 26.2% chance of winning the title by the Opta supercomputer, with Chelsea retaining their crown in 69.7% of simulations. The Blues are unbeaten in 33 league games, and they could make a piece of competition history on Sunday.

And Andree Jeglertz's team face a stern test this week, as Manchester United visit the Etihad Stadium for a huge derby matchup on Saturday.

That is not the only derby taking place this weekend, though, as North London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal square off on Sunday. Chelsea visit Liverpool, while the London City Lionesses will look to continue their strong form against Aston Villa.

There are also meetings between Brighton and Leicester City, and West Ham and Everton, on the calendar for Sunday. Here, we look ahead to the weekend's action using Opta data.

MANCHESTER CITY V MANCHESTER UNITED

The first game of the weekend is arguably the biggest, as City look to extend their seven-game winning streak in the WSL – their longest run since 14 straight victories from November 2023 to April 2024.

City have 21 points from their eight games this term (one loss), only earning more points at this stage of a campaign in 2017-18 (22).

They lost 4-2 to United at the Etihad in January, with that their first home defeat to their rivals in the WSL. They won four of their first five such matches, drawing the other.

And United are the only side to have a 100% record away from home in the WSL this season, winning on all four of their road trips. Only in 2020-21 have they won five away games in a row within a single season before.

City are the first team other than Chelsea to start a WSL matchday at the top of the table since matchday 21 of the 2023-24 campaign. The Citizens were also top on that occasion, but they ultimately finished as runners-up on goal difference, under Gareth Taylor.

City – who handed England international Alex Greenwood a new two-year contract on Wednesday – are assigned a 55% chance of victory by Opta's predictive model, with United winning 21.8% of simulations and 23.2% finishing level. 

ASTON VILLA V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

The London City Lionesses visit Aston Villa in one of four early games on Sunday, having won four of their last six WSL matches (two defeats). 

That is as many victories as all newly promoted teams had earned across their previous 51 games in the competition combined (eight draws, 39 defeats).

Jocelyn Precheur's team could now become only the third newly promoted team to reach five wins in their first nine games of a WSL season, after Manchester United in 2019-20 (five wins) and Sunderland in 2015 (six wins). 

They are just one place and two points above Villa in the table, with Natalia Arroyo's team having only lost one of their last 12 games in the competition (seven wins, four draws).

They are unbeaten in five since a 3-1 home defeat to Chelsea on matchday two (two wins, three draws). Villa are favourites with a 51.5% win probability, with the Lionesses at 23.8% and the draw at 24.7%.

Villa have also lost just one of their eight WSL matches against promoted teams, winning five and drawing two, though that one defeat did come in their most recent such match, 3-1 away at Crystal Palace in March.

BRIGHTON V LEICESTER CITY

Brighton and Leicester are both in the bottom half of the table, but with buffers of seven and five points, respectively, to bottom club West Ham.

They face off on Sunday, with Brighton having won two of their last three top-flight meetings with the Foxes, having only won one of their first five (one draw, three defeats).

Brighton have won just two of their eight WSL games this season (two draws, four defeats), only claiming fewer wins at this stage in their very first two top-flight campaigns (one point in both 2018-19 and 2019-20).

Part of their issue has been a tendency to fall behind. Brighton have trailed in each of their last four games in the WSL (one draw, three defeats), and they could go behind in five consecutive matches for the first time since October 2022 to March 2023 (11 in a row).

The supercomputer makes them favourites, though, with a 49.8% win probability compared to Leicester's 24.9%. 

Leicester could make a piece of unwanted history, too. They are without a win in their last 20 away WSL games (seven draws, 13 defeats), matching Yeovil Town (between April 2017 and February 2019) for the all-time record, which they could now take outright.

LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA

Chelsea could also make a piece of WSL history on Sunday, though theirs would be a far more positive landmark.

The Blues are unbeaten in their last 33 WSL games (28 wins, five draws), matching their own record-breaking streak between February 2019 and January 2021, under Emma Hayes.

During their current run, which started on matchday 20 of the 2023-24 season, Chelsea have won 89 points, at least 20 more than any other side in the division (Arsenal – 69).

They will set a new mark with another win or draw at Liverpool, who are winless in each of their last 10 WSL games (two draws, eight defeats) and could equal their joint-longest run without victory in the competition (11, previously set twice, in August 2011 and January 2020).

Chelsea have also scored in each of their last 29 away WSL matches, since a 2-0 loss at Man City in March 2023. Only Arsenal, with a 30-match streak between them April 2011 and April 2015, have ever netted in more consecutive away matches in the competition.

The Blues have won 13 of their last 16 WSL games against Liverpool (one draw, two defeats), completing the league double over the Reds last season for the first time since 2018-19 (3-0 away, 1-0 home).

Liverpool will have to be particularly wary of Aggie Beever-Jones, who has scored four of Chelsea's last seven WSL goals against Liverpool. Her five goals versus the Reds are her most against any specific opponent in the competition.

The supercomputer gives Chelsea a huge 91.1% chance of setting a new record unbeaten run, winning in 79.7% of scenarios and drawing in 11.4%. Liverpool are assigned just an 8.9% chance of pulling off a major upset.

WEST HAM V EVERTON 

West Ham finally picked up their first point of the campaign at the eighth time of asking last week, drawing 1-1 with Leicester after seven straight defeats.

Throughout 2025, the Hammers have only put together a single run of more than one game unbeaten (five between March and April, with two wins and three draws).

But they are still enduring the longest winless start to a season since Leicester in 2022-23 (first nine), as well as the worst-ever by a club from London.

Everton, meanwhile, are just four points above the division's bottom club, having failed to win any of their last seven games (two draws, five defeats) after starting with a win.

The Toffees last went eight WSL matches without winning in the same campaign when failing to win any of their first eight games of 2018-19 (two draws, six defeats).

The predictive model struggles to split the teams, with West Ham given a 37.7% chance of victory to Everton's 35.9%, with the draw at 26.4%.

But one thing that should be anticipated is entertainment. Only games involving the London City Lionesses and Man City (29 each) have contained more total goals than those involving Everton this season (27 – 11 for, 16 against).

TOTTENHAM V ARSENAL

The weekend's action is rounded off by another derby at Brisbane Road, with Tottenham and Arsenal level on 15 points apiece after the first eight matchdays.

Spurs have won just one of their 11 WSL meetings with Arsenal (one draw, nine defeats), a 1-0 win in December 2023, which saw them attempt just five shots while facing 31.

But Martin Ho's team now have an opportunity to win three straight home games in the WSL for the very first time, having won three of four games on their own turf this season (one defeat).

Spurs' tally of five victories this season is actually one more than Arsenal have managed – the Gunners last won fewer than five of their opening nine games since 2014 (three).

Arsenal have scored at least 12 more goals than any other side in the WSL in 2025, with their 60 goals from 20 games a tally they have only bettered in one previous calendar year, netting 69 in 23 matches in 2018.

The European champions have also recorded the most build-up attacks in the WSL this season (28), while only Leicester (one) have recorded fewer than Tottenham's two. The Gunners have had the most touches in the opposition box this season (319) and only Man City (113) have bettered their 106 shots from inside the area.

Arsenal were victorious in 64.1% of the supercomputer's simulations compared to Tottenham's 16.7%, with 19.2% finishing level.