The Premier League’s most costly under-performing forwards of the 2023/24 season
The 2023/24 Premier League season didn’t ultimately bring a whole lot of surprises, at least in terms of the champions, the relegated clubs, and most of those who earned a European spot. But that doesn’t mean there weren’t plenty of hidden stories, a clutch of sides who over-or under-performed…and players within those squads who did particularly well, or poorly. Much of that, of course, could go on to determine the summer plans of various clubs.
With that in mind, here are the worst attacking offenders in the Premier League this season, defined by a blend of expected goals per 90 minutes as opposed to actual goal tally, shots on target and conversion rates and, on a more subjective level, player cost, perceived importance to the team – plus what the club was attempting to achieve this term, and what they eventually managed.
5. Nicolas Jackson, Chelsea
Five goals in three games towards the end of the campaign definitely spared the Senegalese striker a place higher up this chart, which he was trending towards around April. But in the end, 14 goals feels a reasonable return, if not stellar.
Even so, he should have had far more. Indeed, he underperformed his expected goals by over 4.5 – suggesting he should have had a minimum of 18 – and while his game time fluctuated, he could certainly have been a 20-goal front man for the campaign had he managed to even finish the average of the chances presented to him. That’s assuming he would have therefore had more minutes of course, which seems a sensible conclusion to draw if he was scoring at a more normal rate.
The positive for Jackson is a 17% conversion rate – easily the best of the bunch on this list and which compares well to the likes of Mohamed Salah, Phil Foden or Dominic Solanke. Still, his misses were costly – Chelsea snared sixth but they could so easily have been a top-four contender.
4. Beto, Everton
Comfortably the worst overall performer on this list in terms of converting the chances he had, the only reason Beto is outside the top three is he was decidedly second-choice for Everton.
A total of 939 Premier League minutes mean the damage he inflicted was relatively minor, but had the Toffees remained in relegation contention he would have been higher.
Ultimately, Beto scored just three goals this season from an xG theoretical potential of almost seven, with just a 7% conversion rate of the shots he had. His season xG per 90 – in other words, how many he might score per full game if he got chances at a similar rate throughout the campaign – was around 0.65, which across a full year equates to nearly a 25-goal striker…he actually finished those chances like an 11-goal one, though.
3. Darwin Núñez, Liverpool
By the end it looked as though Jürgen Klopp had given up hope of coaxing the best out of Núñez – and the Uruguayan was very good when he did show his best. That was extremely infrequently, however.
The long and short of it is that he underperformed his xG for the season by more than five goals, only managing 11 in the league in the end, and with just a 10% conversion rate from his chances.
On a shots per 90 minutes basis he’s the busiest or best in the league, averaging 4.8 a game – but not when it comes to putting them away. Erling Haaland, for example, has a conversion rate more than twice as good. Núñez missing chances cost Liverpool a bigger say in the title fight.
2. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Everton
In almost 2,200 minutes he managed just seven goals and had the worst underperformance of all the league’s main forwards – he should have had almost double his actual tally, effectively (12.9 xG).
His conversion rate on chances is worse than Núñez’s too, at only 9%, putting him in the bottom 20% of all forwards in similar leagues this season for goals from chances on a per 90 basis. He managed the same goals per 90 as Beto (0.29). Played a lot more minutes, with not much more to show for it.
1. Brennan Johnson, Spurs
Top of the flops in front of goal was Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson, who had a miserable conversion rate, wildly underperformed his xG and failed to even manage a 0.2 goals per 90 rate across the campaign – and contributed considerably to his team missing out on the Champions League in the process.
Johnson played over 2,300 minutes, with his five-goal haul a pitiful return in an overall disappointing season, in end product terms.
His xG places him ahead of 85% of similar players in the league; his actual goals ahead of only 45%. A 9% conversion rate is, to be blunt, dismal – he played from wide a lot of the time but so too did Jack Grealish (14%), Mykhailo Mudryk (14%), Raheem Sterling (15%) and Marcus Rashford (11%). None are seen as having had a good campaign but they all outperformed him in conversion and three of the four scored the same or more actual goals as him.
Spurs need a lot more from Johnson next year – but it’ll be in the Europa, not the Champions League.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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