Preview: Man United vs. Palace and the battle of the back threes
Perhaps tough love was what Manchester United needed all along, who knew? Well, that and a head coach capable of a solid tactical setup. Do they finally have both in place?
By Karl Matchett
Battle of the back threes
Not a regular occurrence in the Premier League these days, but this fixture will see two managers go head-to-head who are wedded to a tactical ideal which stems from playing a three-man defence. For Rúben Amorim, he has been super clear: United hired me to play this way so the players better get on board and show they can do so. A lot of moving parts still have to be sorted out and no doubt new signings will still change a lot of the XI by the time August rolls around, but it’s still clear to see that the foundations are being put in place for what Amorim believes will work long term.
Oliver Glasner has had a few extra months to put those foundations in place in similar fashion, and after a terrible start this term, seems to have rediscovered the formula to get his team moving up the table. Palace can look sensational in attack in short bursts, and if the ability of Michael Olise has been sorely missed this term, the boss will also point to injuries down the spine of the team which has hampered consistency and progression at times.
These teams rank 10th and 13th for xG, 14th and 16th for goals actually scored. They might both be slightly better than the league table shows right now, but only one has the expectation and pressure which rightly comes with the outrageous expenditure they’ve made.
Recent form
Five wins in the last six for United, but in league terms it’s still just two wins from seven, so starting to find consistency is of paramount importance if Amorim wants this period to be more than two steps forward, one and a half steps back. Palace had won four and drawn two of their last six before defeat to Brentford last time out – and they’ve not lost away in the Premier League since late October.
Team news
The names are familiar for Manchester United who’ll be missing in action: Luke Shaw, Mason Mount, Jonny Evans. For Palace it’s still the midfield pivot pairing of Adam Wharton and Cheick Doucouré who are the big absentees, with Joel Ward, Franca and Chadi Riad all sidelined too – the latter is out for the whole season.
Key player
It seems obvious and boring to pick out Bruno Fernandes but…it’s Bruno Fernandes. He’s still United’s chief lock-unpicker, most likely to take a half-chance and has the best movement in tight matches. Palace rank ninth for lowest xG conceded, while United are ninth-lowest for shots on target. They’re fifth-worst for shot conversion too, with Palace even lower down that list. Fernandes – highest xG in the team, highest key passes, most big chances created, top of the league in his role for long passes per 90 – is the one who can find or force a breakthrough.
Prediction
Only a goal in it either way…so we’re just about leaning towards a home win: United 1 Palace 0.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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