Preview: Newcastle and Chelsea meet in lunchtime kickoff
Newcastle are struggling for consistency this term as they balance expectancy after success with the demands of top-tier European action – and now they face Chelsea, who have one of the best away records in the Premier League.
By Karl Matchett
Blues sound on the road
While Enzo Maresca has only tasted victory in half of his league games at Stamford Bridge this season, away from home is…well, actually it’s the exact same story, four wins from eight – but that’s far more impressive on away days than it is for home form.
It leaves Chelsea with the second-best points haul (14) on the road this term (behind Crystal Palace, 16), and they’ve also scored more goals on the road than Newcastle have managed at home. That said, they have stuttered slightly of late: it was one win in five away games in all competitions prior to a midweek cup triumph at Cardiff, including defeats at Leeds and Atalanta.
Defensive concerns
Newcastle have basically been two different sides this year: very good at home, shocking away. It unsurprisingly leaves them mid-table (12th) as we approach the halfway stage, but they are at least above Chelsea in the recent form guide and can point to wins over Man City, Athletic Club and Tottenham as reason for confidence. Yet matters have been eroding in the defensive third. It’s nine games without a clean sheet now, Aaron Ramsdale hasn’t proven himself an able deputy for Nick Pope in goal and Tino Livramento has picked up an injury to add him to a list which already included at least five other defenders.
Chelsea’s approach isn’t a secret: they’ll attack, their wingers will be prominent and Cole Palmer’s creativity is back on the table too – it might be a mismatch in that area of the pitch.
Recent form
How optimistic should Magpies fans be? Eight wins from nine at home, or three wins from their last seven overall? Chelsea have won back-to-back games after a four-match winless streak but have been fairly impressive across the board.
Team news
Dan Burn, Jamaal Lascelles, Emil Krafth, Kieran Trippier and Sven Botman are all out for Newcastle, plus Pope and Livramento – and Lewis Hall is a doubt too. Lewis Miley might get pressed into action at full-back.
For Chelsea it’s Roméo Lavia, Estêvão, Liam Delap and Levi Colwill who are notable absentees.
Key player
If Chelsea are to make their attacking superiority count, they first need to match-up to the hosts’ midfield combative nature. That means Moisés Caicedo has to be at the top of his game – which is a very high ceiling. He ranks above 86% of central midfielders for defensive contributions and his all-round style is highlighted by per-90 Premier League stats this term: above 86% for touches, 90% for tackles, 88% for pass success, 97% for interceptions and, with 3 goals, 90% there too.
Prediction
Hard to see Newcastle keeping out an attack-minded Chelsea side given the limitations at the back Eddie Howe is facing: Newcastle 1-2 Chelsea.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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