The Numbers Game: Haaland aims for Premier League century at Shearer's former stomping ground

Erling Haaland scores goals. He scores lots of them.

And on Saturday, as Manchester City head to Newcastle United, Haaland will aim to hit a century of Premier League goals.

Haaland sits on 99 goals from 108 games in England's top flight. The current record holder in the competition for the fastest player to 100 goals in terms of games played is Newcastle legend Alan Shearer, who did it in 124 appearances, back in the 1995-96 season.

It is fitting, then, that Haaland could well smash the record at St James' Park, Shearer's former stomping ground.

The 25-year-old comes into this match on the back of scoring twice in 90 seconds for Norway in their 4-1 defeat of Italy last week, which came three days after he had scored another double for his country against Estonia.

Haaland will be the main man as Norway head to next year's World Cup, but for now his focus will switch back to being the focal point for City, as Pep Guardiola's team aim to keep the pressure on league leaders Arsenal.

Here, we delve into the key storylines ahead of Newcastle versus Man City, with the help of Opta data.

What's expected?

City's emphatic 3-0 win over Liverpool last time out saw them close the gap on Premier League leaders Arsenal to four points.

With the Gunners not in action until they face rivals Tottenham on Sunday, Guardiola will be licking his lips at the chance to really apply the pressure.

This time last year, City's capitulation began, but they are now rediscovering their rhythm, even if they have been extremely reliant on Haaland's goals. More on that to come.

City are made the favourites by Opta's supercomputer, with the visitors winning 43.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations run by the model.

Newcastle came out on top in 31.1%, while there is a 25.2% chance of a draw.

And while City are just four points behind Arsenal, with the chance to close the gap to one prior to the Gunners facing Spurs on Sunday, Newcastle are languishing just two points above the bottom three on the back of successive defeats to West Ham and Brentford.

Newcastle also have a torrid recent record against City.

They have won just one of their last 35 Premier League meetings with City (D6 L28), a 2-1 home victory in January 2019 under Rafael Benítez.

City have won 12 Premier League away games against Newcastle, their joint-most away victories against an opponent in the competition (also 12 vs Everton).

In fact, City have scored in each of their last 33 Premier League games against Newcastle. Only three sides have had a longer scoring streak against an opponent in top-flight history – Chelsea v Newcastle (37 from 1933-1969), Spurs v Newcastle (35 from 1922-1961) and Everton v Blackburn (34 from 1925-1962).

City lost two of their first three Premier League games this season (W1), conceding four goals in the process. Since then, they have lost one of their last eight (W6 D1), conceding just four more goals in this run.

Eddie Howe, meanwhile, has won none of his 18 Premier League meetings with City (D2 L16) – it is the most a manager has faced an opponent in the competition without ever winning.

Newcastle's defence their best hope?

Newcastle suffered against the prowess of Brentford's long throws last time out, and goalkeeper Nick Pope went off with a concussion in that defeat, to be replaced by Aaron Ramsdale. It looks as though the Magpies should have their first-choice shot-stopper back, though, after Howe told BBC Newcastle Pope had passed the necessary protocols. 

Dan Burn had a bit of a nightmare against the Bees and will be suspended following his red card at the Gtech Community Stadium, leaving Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw to anchor their backline this week.

And given how much City rely on Haaland to score their goals in the league (the striker has netted 14 of their 21 goals this season, a 66.7% share), it could be a case of stop Haaland, stop City.

That is easier said than done, but if there is a defence that could be set up to have some success against City's fearsome number nine, then Newcastle's has a good shout.

Only City (10.4) and Arsenal (6.1) can boast a lower expected goals against (xGA) figure than Newcastle (11.4) in the Premier League this season; Howe's team have also kept five clean sheets, which ranks joint-second, behind Arsenal's seven.

It has been at the other end that Newcastle have had issues.

Nick Woltemade has made a bright start to life on Tyneside, but with Yoane Wissa injured and Anthony Gordon in blunt form, goals have been hard to come by. The Magpies have scored just 11 times in the league, which ranks above only Wolves (seven), Leeds United (10) and Nottingham Forest (10).

Newcastle took the lead in both of their last two league games, but went on to lose each of them.

They have actually lost three Premier League games despite scoring first this season. That is as many such defeats as they suffered in the previous two campaigns combined (one in 2024-25, two in 2023-24), while they last lost more in 2021-22 (four).

Newcastle have never lost three straight Premier League matches in which they have taken the lead, while they last suffered more than two successive top-flight defeats back in January 2024, when they lost four in a row.

Haaland hunts history

It would take a quite remarkable drop-off for Haaland to fail to shatter the record for the quickest player to 100 Premier League goals. He has 15 matches to play with, after all.

But he will want to hit the mark as soon as possible and continue his incredible scoring run.

Haaland has played 15 times for City in all competitions this season and has failed to score in only two of those games, in defeats to Spurs and Aston Villa.

He already has 19 goals to his name in all competitions, with 14 of those coming in the Premier League, almost twice as many as the division's next-highest scorer (Igor Thiago, eight).

No other City player has managed more than one league goal this term, so there will be a dash of concern there for Guardiola, even if Haaland is proving almost unstoppable right now.

To put Haaland's impending achievement into perspective, after Shearer, the next-quickest player to 100 Premier League goals is Harry Kane (141 appearances).

Since Haaland made his Premier League debut in 2022, he has plundered 29 more goals than any other player (Mohamed Salah ranks second, on 70). His 91.1 minutes-per-goal ratio is better than any other player to net over 10 goals in that time, while he ranks top for shots (397) and shots on target (206).

Haaland's 14 goals this term is the second-highest tally a player has had in the competition after 11 matches of a season, after Haaland himself (17) in 2022-23.

Only taking into account players to have scored at least 10 goals in the division since the start of the 2022-23 campaign, Haaland has the fifth-highest shot conversion rate (24.9%).

However, he has only scored once in the top flight against Newcastle.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Newcastle United - Nick Woltemade

Woltemade had big shoes to fill following the departure of Alexander Isak, but he has certainly shown flashes of real quality since his big-money arrival from Stuttgart.

Interestingly, all three of the Germany international's non-penalty goals for Newcastle this season have been from first-time shots. Only Jean-Philippe Mateta (four) has scored more Premier League goals this season with 100% of them coming from first-time finishes.

Woltemade's four league goals have come from 3.0 xG, while he is operating at a 30.7% shot conversion rate, which is roughly in line with Haaland's 31.1%.

Manchester City - Jeremy Doku 

Doku ran Liverpool ragged before the international break and was the standout player in City's dominant win over the defending champions.

The Belgium international, who also impressed for his country in recent days, has attempted 66 dribbles in the league this term, ranking behind only Mohammed Kudus (73).

He has completed 34 of them, which leads the league along with Kudus, but there is certainly an end product to his approach play, too.

Doku already has four assists to his name in the league, while he has created the joint-most chances from open play (23), along with Jack Grealish.