The Numbers Game: Will Tuchel's contentious squad selections pay off?

England finally clicked into gear under Thomas Tuchel last month, as they hammered Serbia 5-0 in World Cup qualifying.

The Three Lions' dominant win in Belgrade came on the back of another underwhelming performance against Andorra, in a 1-0 win at Villa Park.

Whether it was a case of Tuchel letting the handbrake off or England's players taking it upon themselves to show what they can really do, they swatted Serbia aside with the type of quality that had rarely been shown in the opening fixtures of the German's tenure.

Noni Madueke, Ezri Konsa and Marc Guehi were on target in that win, making it only the third time England had three or more players score their first international goals in the same game since winning the 1966 World Cup, after October 2020 v Wales (Danny Ings, Conor Coady, Dominic Calvert-Lewin) and November 2024 v Republic of Ireland (Anthony Gordon, Conor Gallagher, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jarrod Bowen).

But Tuchel has again made waves in the build-up to the October international break, with eyebrows raised over his squad selection for this month's games.

England face Latvia in qualifying next week, but first, Tuchel has the chance to test out his squad in a friendly against Wales at Wembley.

But there will be no Jude Bellingham, despite the Real Madrid star having returned to fitness. Phil Foden has also missed out, as have Jack Grealish, who has shone for Everton this term, and Crystal Palace's excellent young midfielder Adam Wharton.

Tuchel still has a squad packed with talent, with Wales boss Craig Bellamy describing the depth in England's ranks as "ridiculous".

But England's fans will demand there is no let-up following that thumping win in Serbia, even with Tuchel likely taking the opportunity to shuffle his pack on Thursday.

What's expected?

This will be the first time England have met Wales since the 2022 World Cup, when the Three Lions cruised to a 3-0 group-stage victory in Doha.

England have won each of their last seven meetings with Wales across all competitions and the Three Lions are only currently on longer winning streaks against three nations: Luxembourg (nine), Andorra (eight) and San Marino (eight).  

Wales have only won one of their 24 away games against England since World War II (D6 L17), a 1-0 win at the old Wembley in May 1977.

On that occasion 48 years ago, Leighton James scored the winning goal from the penalty spot.

It is no surprise, then, that England are made the favourites by Opta's supercomputer.

The Three Lions came out on top in 70.9% of the model's 10,000 simulations. Wales have just a 12.6% win probability, while there is a 16.5% chance of a draw.

Will Tuchel's gamble pay off?

England have won eight consecutive competitive games for the first time since winning 10 in a row in Euro 2016 qualifying between September 2014 and October 2015 under Roy Hodgson, and it would take a capitulation of epic proportions for them to miss out on next year's World Cup.

The Three Lions, who did lose their last friendly against Senegal in June, have also scored in each of their last 16 games across all competitions, their joint-longest run this century – they last scored in 17 straight between June 1990 and June 1991.

That being said, Tuchel has caused a stir with his latest squad selection.

Madueke has been a standout performer under Tuchel and has been involved in four goals in his nine games for the Three Lions (one goal, three assists). However, the Arsenal winger is out due to injury.

The winger's club-mate Bukayo Saka is back in the fold after his return to fitness, but there was surprisingly no place for either Bellingham or Foden.

While Bellingham did miss the start of Real Madrid's season after undergoing shoulder surgery, he is a player who has consistently stepped up for England in the big moments. Foden, meanwhile, has come back into form for a resurgent Manchester City in recent weeks.

Grealish, the Premier League's leading chance creator from open play this season (16) and joint-leading assister (four), has also not made the cut, though Tuchel did say the playmaker appears to be close to being back at his best.

The 30-year-old has recorded 1.9 open-play expected assists (xA) in the Premier League this season, more than any other player. His eight chance-ending carries is another chart-topping tally.

Wharton is another curious omission, though Tuchel will likely point to the form of midfield duo Elliot Anderson and Jordan Henderson.

Across his first two caps in September, Anderson led all England players for successful passes (182), possession regains (23), tackles (five), forward passes (48) and successful long passes (10).

Anderson has been involved in 37 open-play shot-ending sequences for Nottingham Forest in the league this term, while he is shining in a variety of metrics.

The 22-year-old is top for passes attempted under high-intensity pressure (249), successful passes under high-intensity pressure (208) and second for line-breaking passes (90) and line-breaking passes leading to a shot (eight). Though the Ange Postecoglou era at Forest has thus far been miserable, Anderson has continued to stand out.

Henderson, meanwhile, has been instrumental for Brentford.

The former Liverpool captain's experience is hugely valued by Tuchel, but Henderson does offer plenty in possession too. He leads Brentford's squad for defensive line-breaking passes (seven) and assists (two), while he ranks behind only Mikkel Damsgaard (five) for chances created (four).

Henderson declared on Tuesday that he is not in the England squad to be a "cheerleader", and it is likely Tuchel will involve him against Wales.

A big challenge for Bellamy

Each of the last eight England managers have won their first meeting with a fellow Home Nation (excluding those that didn’t face one), with Don Revie versus Northern Ireland in May 1975 the last to fail to record a victory (0-0 draw).

So, Tuchel has history on his side and the scale of the task facing Wales boss Bellamy cannot be overstated.

Wales have lost two of their last three matches (W1), after losing just one of 19 games beforehand (W9 D9).

They have not lost back-to-back games since June 2023 (against Armenia and Turkiye).

Plus, Wales are winless in each of their last 11 away friendly matches (D1 L10), since a 1-0 win in Denmark. In fact, it was Bellamy who got the goal against the Danes, back in November 2008.

Wales have also failed to score in each of their last 10 such games, going 938 minutes without a goal since last netting in a 2-1 loss to Montenegro in 2009.

England have, though, lost their last two friendly matches, 0-1 vs Iceland in June 2024 and 1-3 vs Senegal in June 2025, last losing three non-competitive games in a row in 1985 under Bobby Robson. 

So perhaps there is some hope for Wales.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

England - Harry Kane

Kane has, of course, been selected by Tuchel. He is Europe's most in-form player.

The Three Lions captain has already plundered 18 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich this season, three more than any player across Europe's top five leagues.

Kane is into the top five most-capped players of all time for England, having overtaken Bobby Moore (108) when he played against Serbia to make his 109th appearance.

The 32-year-old is now behind only Peter Shilton (125), Wayne Rooney (120), David Beckham (115) and Steven Gerrard (114).

Wales - Brennan Johnson

Tottenham forward Johnson will be out to make his mark at Wembley, and he is no doubt Wales' biggest threat.

Johnson has scored two goals in the Premier League so far this season, but that is in just 269 minutes of action. He has averaged 3.4 open-play shot-ending sequence involvements per 90 in the top flight in 2025-26, which ranks joint-fifth in Spurs' squad.

However, he has only netted once in Wales' five World Cup qualifiers so far.