The Numbers Game: Chelsea mark Champions League return with Bayern trip

Two-time European champions Chelsea are back at the top table after a two-year absence.

Chelsea will feature in the Champions League for the first time since the 2022-23 campaign, and their first match back is against heavyweights Bayern Munich.

A trip to Munich – the scene of one of their most famous nights – welcomes them back into the Champions League fold, and the Blues are going up against a team bang in form.

Vincent Kompany's Bayern were runaway Bundesliga champions last season, and they have started this season in style, scoring 14 goals in their three league matches and taking maximum points.

They routed Hamburger SV on Saturday, while Chelsea were pegged back to a 2-2 draw by Brentford.

Wednesday's clash is an intriguing prospect, with two teams who love to get on the front foot sure to serve up entertainment. Here, we delve into the key Opta statistics.

What's expected?

Bayern have won three of their last four games against Chelsea in the Champions League (D1, lost on penalties in the final in 2012), including winning both legs against them in the 2019-20 last 16, in their most recent meetings (3-0 away and 4-1 at home). 

Chelsea have lost 60% of their games against Bayern in the European Cup/Champions League (W1 D1 L3).

That is their highest loss percentage against any side they have faced on at least five occasions in Europe's premier club competition.

Indeed, only Barcelona (four) have more wins against the Blues than Bayern (three) in the European Cup/Champions League.

The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and Bayern came out victorious in 54.9% of them.

Chelsea are handed just a 23% win probability, while the likelihood of a draw is 22.1%.

When it comes to the overall tournament predictions, the model actually gives Chelsea a higher probability of becoming European champions than Bayern, with the Blues' chances ranked at 7% and Bayern's at 5%.

Bayern have scored more goals this term than any other team in Europe's top five leagues, outperforming their 8.6 expected goals (xG), which ranks joint-third, along with Real Madrid.

They are the only Bundesliga team with a 100% record in 2025-26, so Chelsea's defence – which has not looked particularly solid this term – could have their work cut out.

Bayern's league-phase expertise

Bayern were knocked out by eventual runners-up Internazionale in the last 16 of last season's Champions League, and it is fair to say Kompany's team did not always convince in Europe.

They suffered defeats to Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord in the league phase, and had to scrape past Celtic in a knockout stage play-off.

However, since 2003-04, when the second group stage was removed, Bayern have the highest win percentage in the group/league phase of the Champions League (73%), winning 93 of their 128 matches before the knockout stages.

Bayern also have a great recent record against English teams in the competition.

They have only lost one of their last 11 home games against English sides in the Champions League (W8 D2), with that defeat coming against Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool in March 2019 (3-1).

Bayern have beaten five different English sides in this run, including Chelsea (W3 v Arsenal, W1 v Manchester City, W2 v Manchester United and W1 v Tottenham).

Star forward Harry Kane continues to thrive for Bayern, and he will be out to do the damage against a team he has actually only scored against eight times, in 22 previous meetings.

Kane has started this season brilliantly, already netting 11 goals across all competitions (including the Club World Cup), outperforming his 5.3 expected goals (xG) by some distance in the process.

Feeding Kane will be the likes of Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry and Joshua Kimmich.

Gnabry has already provided four assists this season, leading Bayern along with Kane, while Olise, who once seemed on the verge of a transfer to Chelsea during his Crystal Palace days, is on three. Kimmich, meanwhile, has set up two goals from a team-high 4.3 expected assists (xA) and 28 chances created.

Across the last three seasons (since 2022-23), Kimmich leads all players in the Champions League for both completed passes (2,525) and chances created (83). Last season, he was the top-ranked player in the competition for line-breaking passes (219). 

Then there is Nicolas Jackson, who has joined Bayern on loan from Chelsea and could well feature against his parent club, albeit any appearance would likely be limited to a cameo from the bench.

Blues back where they belong

Since their last match in the Champions League in April 2023, the Blues have won 12 of their 13 European matches (excluding qualifiers).

That run, of course, comprises Chelsea's run to Conference League glory last season, while we should not forget that Enzo Maresca's team also triumphed at the Club World Cup this summer, thumping reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain in the final.

It has been a so-so start to the Premier League campaign for Chelsea.

They have won twice and drawn twice, though the manner of their draw against Brentford on Saturday - when Fabio Carvalho equalised in stoppage time - will have stung.

Chelsea have scored nine times already in the Premier League, though, which leads the division along with Arsenal and Liverpool.

So going forward, there are plenty of reasons for Maresca to be confident, especially given the return of Cole Palmer from injury.

Estevao is another exciting talent. He missed the Brentford game due to illness, but should he make his Champions League debut on Wednesday, he would do so at the age of just 18 years and 46 days.

Prior to the 2025-26 campaign, only three South American players had scored in the competition while aged younger than that – Endrick in 2024 (18y 58d), Roque Santa Cruz in 1999 (18y 71d) and Lionel Messi in 2005 (18y 131d).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Bayern Munich - Manuel Neuer

Neuer is currently sitting on 99 wins in the competition. Only three players have won 100 Champions League matches – Cristiano Ronaldo (115), Thomas Muller (111) and Iker Casillas (101).

The veteran campaigner (60) has kept the most clean sheets and made the most saves (413) of any goalkeeper in Champions League history. 

At 74.7%, Neuer has the fourth-best save percentage of any goalkeeper to make 50+ Champions League appearances, and the best save percentage of any active goalkeeper to make 50+ Champions League appearances.

And should he feature, as expected, then he would equal Toni Kroos on 151 Champions League games.

Only former Bayern stalwart Muller (163) has played more times in the competition among German players.

Chelsea - Cole Palmer

Palmer's return to fitness has provided a timely boost for Maresca.

The playmaker scored just five minutes after his introduction from the bench against Brentford. It was his first open-play goal in the Premier League since January, and he also had a game-leading five shots despite coming on in the 56th minute.

Palmer has been directly involved in eight goals in his last eight club games in international competitions (three goals, five assists), three of which came in his last such appearance in the Club World Cup final against PSG (two goals, one assist).

The 23-year-old has now scored 50 club goals, with 44 of those coming for Chelsea and six for Manchester City.