The Numbers Game: Arteta aiming for third straight home win over Guardiola

Arsenal defeated Athletic Bilbao on Tuesday to kick-start their Champions League campaign, making it four wins from five this season.

The Gunners have not shipped a single goal across those four victories, three of which have come in the Premier League.

Only Liverpool have managed to breach Arsenal's defence this season, in the one game Mikel Arteta's team have lost.

So, it really could be a case of an immovable object meeting an unstoppable force when Manchester City visit Emirates Stadium on Sunday.

That is, of course, if City show the kind of form they displayed in their emphatic defeat of Manchester United last week, rather than replicating the poor displays they turned in against Tottenham and Brighton in August.

City followed up their derby-day triumph by overcoming Napoli 2-0 in their Champions League opener, with Erling Haaland scoring his 50th goal in the competition before a superb solo effort from Jeremy Doku made the points safe.

Now, Pep Guardiola will look to end a recent hoodoo at the Emirates, and using Opta data, we preview Sunday's crunch clash between two of the Premier League's heavyweights.

What's expected?

City have lost both of their last two league visits to Arsenal, as many as their previous 14 beforehand (W7 D5 L2). It is their longest losing run away to the Gunners since April 2009 (four in a row).

With City winless in four Premier League games against Arsenal, Guardiola could go five games without a top-flight league win against an opponent for the very first time.

Arteta, then, could also become the first manager ever to go five league games unbeaten against Guardiola.

Arsenal have won two of their last four league meetings with City (D2), as many as their previous 22 beforehand (D5 L15). The Gunners could win back-to-back league games against the Citizens for the first time since December 2015.

Given Arsenal's recent record against City at home, Opta's supercomputer is backing the Gunners.

Arsenal have a 52.2% win probability, while City's chances are ranked at 23.4%, slightly lower than the likelihood of a draw (24.4%).

Rock solid

Arsenal have won their last three Premier League home games by an aggregate score of 9-0.

Two of those have come this season. A 5-0 thrashing of Leeds United was followed by the Gunners dispatching Ange Postecoglou's Nottingham Forest 3-0 last week.

The Gunners, then, are in mean form defensively. In fact, only Newcastle United (2.1) have registered a lower expected goals against (xGA) figure than Arsenal's 2.4 in the division this season.

They are one of four Premier League teams to have kept three shutouts so far this term, along with Tottenham, Crystal Palace and Newcastle.

Arsenal have, however, faced 39 shots, which is more than Leeds United (38), Bournemouth (36), Liverpool (34) and the Magpies (26).

Set-pieces continue to be a real threat for the Gunners, and Declan Rice has become a maestro from such situations.

Rice has created four chances in the league in 2025-26, with all of those coming from set-pieces. Only Andreas Pereira (37) and Bruno Fernandes (33) have created more chances from set-pieces in the Premier League than the England international's 30 since the start of last season.

Noni Madueke, meanwhile, has filled in well in the absence of the injured Bukayo Saka, and leads Arsenal for chances created (eight) in the league this season. Eberechi Eze may be hoping to get the nod to play centrally if Martin Odegaard remains sidelined, though Arteta could be more likely to go with Mikel Merino ahead of Rice and Martin Zubimendi.

Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard, meanwhile, come into this one fresh from scoring as substitutes in the win over Bilbao.

Arsenal are hunting a fourth straight home league win without conceding in December 2021, while they last won their first three at home in a season without conceding in 1960-61. And defeating City would certainly show that the Gunners are Liverpool's primary title rivals.

Can City prove they are back for good?

This is a rebuilding season for Guardiola, and two defeats in City's first three games was certainly not part of the plan.

It marked the first time City had lost two of their first three games since the 2004-05 campaign, while it was the fewest points Guardiola had ever collated over his first three league matches of a season.

City put the record straight with that hammering of United, but there is certainly still lots of work to do.

While Arsenal have been defensively resilient, they are going up against the team that leads the Premier League for expected goals (xG) this season, with City netting eight times from 8.5 xG. Arsenal rank fifth, with 6.5 xG.

Much of the focus will be on in-form Haaland and City's other attacking talents, but Guardiola will hope the acquisition of Gianluigi Donnarumma from Paris Saint-Germain helps bring some grit at the back, too.

Donnarumma made two saves and kept a clean sheet on his Premier League debut last weekend. The only goalkeepers to record a clean sheet in their first two starts for the Citizens are Kasper Schmeichel (August 2007) and Stefan Ortega (May 2023).

This match also comes just shy of a year to the anniversary of Rodri sustaining an ACL injury, in a match against Arsenal, which ultimately derailed City's 2024-25 campaign.

Rodri has played 40 league games for Man City since the start of 2023-24, while he has missed 40 matches in the competition in that time.

City have won 30 of the matches in which Rodri has played in that time, losing just twice (75% win rate). Of the matches the midfielder has missed, City have claimed 21 wins and suffered 12 defeats (52.5% win rate). Their points per game with him in the team in that span is 2.5, compared to 1.8 without.

An additional worry for City, though, on top of the fact that the Gunners have had an extra 48 hours of rest, is that they have lost five of their last seven Premier League games immediately following a European game in midweek (W2), including a 5-1 loss at Arsenal in February. Their previous five such defeats came over a period of 46 games in five years (W27 D14).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal - Viktor Gyokeres

Gyokeres already has three Premier League goals to his name, and he has been clinical with the chances that have come his way.

The Sweden international has had only seven shots, getting three of those on target. The Arsenal forward has the league's third-highest xG total (2.1).

Of the players to score at least two Premier League goals this term, Gyokeres has the fifth-best shot conversion rate (42.9%), while he has a minutes-per-goal ratio of 102.

Manchester City - Erling Haaland

Haaland is the league's leading scorer, with five goals, while he has also had the most shots (19) and shots on target (eight).

The 25-year-old has scored four goals in six Premier League appearances against Arsenal, while he has 19 goals in 20 league games in London. Among players to play 1,000+ minutes in away Premier League games in the capital, Haaland has the best minutes per goal ratio (one every 93 minutes).

He also comes into this clash on the back of becoming the fastest player to score 50 Champions League goals, having achieved the feat in just 49 appearances.

That is at least 13 fewer than any other player in the competition's illustrious history, with Ruud van Nistelrooy doing so in 62.