The Numbers Game: Liverpool aim to get back on track as Man Utd visit Anfield

Anfield will be the venue for two Premier League giants locking horns this Sunday, with Liverpool renewing their rivalry with Manchester United.

Liverpool went into the international break with their indifferent performances having caught up with them.

After scraping to last-gasp victories early on in the campaign, the Reds suffered three straight defeats in the space of a week, losing to Crystal Palace and Chelsea in the league, either side of going down to Galatasaray in Europe.

Arne Slot will be desperate for his team to get back on track quickly. The season might be young, but time can run out fast in a title race, and by the time Sunday's game rolls around, Liverpool could well be four points adrift of the leaders, with Arsenal playing against Fulham on Saturday.

United, meanwhile, have alternated between winning and losing in their last four games. They beat Sunderland 2-0 at Old Trafford last time out to head into the international window on a high.

However, a crisis never seems far away for Ruben Amorim, who could do with a big result to show his team really are on the right course.

With the help of Opta data, we look at the pre-match statistics ahead of this huge clash on Merseyside.

What's expected?

A fixture once dominated by United during the days of Alex Ferguson is now a distant memory, with Liverpool often coming out on top against their fiercest rivals.

Indeed, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 14 Premier League meetings with the Red Devils (W7 D6), a 1-2 defeat at Old Trafford in August 2022.

Since the start of 2018-19, this is the fewest defeats any side to face United three or more times in the competition has had against them.

United are winless in their last nine Premier League games at Anfield since a 1-0 win in January 2016 under Louis van Gaal (D5 L4).

Liverpool could become just the second side to avoid defeat in 10+ successive Premier League home games against the Red Devils, after Chelsea (10 from August 2002 to February 2012).

But Slot's side are going through a rough patch of late, losing three straight games across all competitions for the first time during the Dutchman's stellar tenure since filling the enormous shoes left behind by Jurgen Klopp.

However, despite their recent run of form, they are backed heavily to get their title tilt back on track, according to the Opta supercomputer.

Liverpool are given a 73.3% chance of victory, the highest total for any team across its MD8 predictions. United's hopes of claiming all three points are given a probability of 11.2%, while a draw happened in 15.5% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Will this be the game that Liverpool's stars finally click?

Liverpool have lost both of their last two Premier League games, after winning their first five of the season beforehand; it was not until their 31st league match of last season that they suffered their second defeat. The Reds could lose three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since February 2021 (four).

The Reds' seven Premier League games this season have already seen four 90th-minute (or later) winning goals (two for, two against). Only in 2008-09 have Liverpool ever been involved in more games with 90th-minute winners in a season in the competition (five – four for, one against).  

Defensive fragility was not something associated with Liverpool last season, but this time around, they certainly have not looked as convincing.

Ibrahima Konate's form is a concern, and Virgil van Dijk cannot do it all on his own at the back.

Liverpool are missing Trent Alexander-Arnold, too. Jeremie Frimpong has not been able to establish himself just yet, while Conor Bradley is leading the Reds for fouls committed (nine). Indeed, he has been booked in five of his last 10 Premier League appearances, including in three of his last five.

In conceding nine goals, Liverpool have shipped three more than Manchester City (six) and six more than Arsenal (three) – their expected title rivals.

But it is not just at the back that the Reds are having trouble.

Their star-studded attack, it is fair to say, is not clicking.

Mohamed Salah looks way short of his best form. Indeed, his per-90 averages for goal involvements (0.6), goals (0.3), expected goals (0.3), shots (1.7) and shots on target (0.7) are all way down on last season. The Egyptian is averaging only 0.14 non-penalty goals per 90, and just 0.17 non-penalty xG.

Alexander Isak is yet to score a Premier League goal since signing from Newcastle United, though Hugo Ekitike has started his Liverpool career brilliantly.

Then there is Florian Wirtz, who is yet to register a goal or assist in the Premier League despite having nine shots and creating 11 chances – his 20 combined shots and chances created are the most of any player yet to score or assist in the competition this term.

It is far from a disastrous start for Liverpool, of course. They sit second, and would have been top if not for those last-minute concessions against Palace and Chelsea.

But Slot has work to do to get his new-look team to gel. A statement win on Sunday would be just the tonic.

Amorim's shot at redemption?

Amorim (W19 D12 L19) became the first Manchester United manager to win his 50th game in charge of the club since Ferguson, who did so in November 1987 against Bury.

For all the furore over his future, it looks as though Amorim is going to be given time, though if United did succumb to a heavy defeat, the pressure would no doubt be ramped right up again.

United won away to the reigning Premier League title-holders Man City last season, but they have not beaten the defending English champions away from home in back-to-back league seasons since 1906-07 (Liverpool) and 1907-08 (Newcastle United).

Amorim could actually become only the third boss to win both of his first two Premier League away games at reigning champions, after Manuel Pellegrini and Antonio Conte.

But United are winless in their last eight Premier League away games (D2 L6) since beating Leicester City 3-0 in March. The Red Devils last went longer without a league win on the road in September 1989 (11). Their last two away matches have seen them ship six goals, scoring just one in return.

However, the underlying metrics, at least in an attacking sense, are pointing in the right direction.

No Premier League team can match United's 14.1 xG, but they have scored just nine times, though – their xG-to-goals differential of -5.1 is the worst in the top flight.

Amorim will hope that Benjamin Sesko's form will change that, though. The striker has scored in his last two league games, something he had not managed to do since January, when he was at RB Leipzig.

At the other end of the pitch, only Arsenal (56) and Newcastle (62) have faced fewer shots than United (64) in the Premier League this season, but despite this, the Red Devils have the fourth-highest expected goals against figure in the division (10.1).

Indeed, their average xG-per-shot faced of 0.16 is the highest of any Premier League side in 2025-26.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Salah has failed to reach the heights of his 29-goal Premier League campaign in 2024-25, but you would fancy Liverpool's superstar to have a say here.

That is because Salah has more goals (13) and goal involvements (19 – 13 goals, six assists) against the Red Devils than any other player in the history of the Premier League.

Only Les Ferdinand (20 against Everton), Alan Shearer (21 against Everton and Leeds United), Frank Lampard (21 against Bolton Wanderers), Harry Kane (22 against Leicester City) and Wayne Rooney (23 against Newcastle United) have recorded 20+ goal involvements against a single opponent in the competition.

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

Despite a slow start to the season, Fernandes is United's joint-leading scorer in the Premier League this season with two, level with summer arrival Sesko.

The Portugal international has created the most chances of any player in the Premier League this season (19), but he is yet to register an assist for his team-mates.

However, he has a poor record against the Reds in the top flight. Fernandes has only ever been on the winning side once in his nine Premier League meetings against them (D3 L5).