The Numbers Game: Chance for Tuchel to experiment as England return to Villa Park

Thomas Tuchel's appointment as Gareth Southgate's successor came with great fanfare, but his first four games as England manager have left many uninspired. 

Though the Three Lions have maximum points in their 2026 World Cup qualification group and are firmly on course for a spot at next year's tournament in the United States, Mexico and Canada, a 3-1 friendly defeat to Senegal in June brought plenty of criticism.

In the first international break of the season, Tuchel's side have a huge opportunity to inch closer to the World Cup, as they face Andorra on Saturday then go to Serbia on Tuesday.

That first match will be England's first at Villa Park since a goalless draw with the Netherlands in February 2005.

The Three Lions have won four of their nine games at the venue (D4 L1), their lowest win ratio at any home ground where they have played at least three times (44.4%).

It would be an almighty shock if they failed to improve on that record with three points, but the manner of victory will also matter to Tuchel as he attempts to put some credit in the bank.

With the help of Opta insights, we preview the game and ask what we can expect from the fourth match of England's World Cup qualification campaign.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer does not forecast Saturday's game to be the most competitive affair. England were victorious in 96.9% of the model's pre-match simulations, with 2% finishing level.

Andorra have won just one of their last 27 matches (D5 L21), a 2-0 friendly victory over San Marino in October 2024. They are given a 1.1% win probability.

England have won all seven of their matches against Andorra without conceding a single goal – they have only faced Luxembourg (nine times) and San Marino (eight) more often while winning every single game.

Andorra have lost their three previous away matches against England by an aggregate score of 15-0. They have only faced Iceland (seven times) more often without ever scoring.

Across all competitive fixtures, Andorra have failed to score in 21 hours and 38 minutes, going 14 matches without a goal (D2 L12) since Albert Rosas netted in a narrow 2-1 defeat to Israel in June 2023.

Should they fail to score on Saturday, it will be their second run of 15 competitive matches without a goal, having previously endured a drought of that length between 2010 and 2013.

New (and old) faces to stake midfield claims?

Games like Saturday's are often no-win scenarios for England, who will expect to win handsomely. 

The Three Lions enter the international break fourth in the FIFA World Rankings. Andorra have previously played 46 matches against nations ranked inside the top 20, losing all 46 by an aggregate score of 168-5.

England have nine points from three games at the start of this World Cup qualifying campaign, and their main rivals in Group K, Serbia, have already dropped points in a goalless draw with Albania.

There is little realistic chance of Tuchel's men failing to reach next year's tournament in North America, and back-to-back wins in this September window would all but rubber-stamp their berth.

For Tuchel, it all comes down to their performances next year. England have eased through qualifying for recent World Cups, going unbeaten in 34 qualifiers (W26 D8) since a 1-0 loss in Ukraine in October 2009. 

At home, they are unbeaten in their last 30 (W27 D3) since losing 1-0 to Germany in the final game at the old Wembley in October 2000, a result that led Kevin Keegan to resign as manager immediately after full-time. 

In short, it has been a long time since England were tested in World Cup qualifying. 

But Saturday's game offers Tuchel a chance to experiment, and after a series of underwhelming performances in March and June, he needs to inject some positivity.

England have had selection issues in central midfield for several years, but Elliot Anderson has emerged as a contender to partner Declan Rice following a breakout campaign with Nottingham Forest in 2024-25. 

Anderson, who is in England's senior squad for the first time after switching allegiance from Scotland, played 37 Premier League games last season as Forest finished seventh.

As well as scoring twice and supplying six assists, Anderson ranked fourth among Forest players for chances created, with 37, and second both for successful passes in the opposition half (645) and tackles won (56). 

Only Moises Caicedo (229) and Bruno Fernandes (213) won possession more often in the Premier League than Anderson (207) last season, while only Germany's Rocco Reitz (37) did so more often at the 2025 Under-21 European Championships, which England won (29).

A genuine midfield all-rounder, Anderson will hope for some gametime on Saturday, particularly after Crystal Palace's Adam Wharton withdrew with a groin injury.

Wharton's replacement, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, could win his first cap since November 2018, having withdrawn due to injury when he was last called up in March 2019.

Injuries limited Loftus-Cheek to just 19 Serie A appearances last season, but he scored the opener in the Rossoneri's 2-0 victory at Lecce on Friday, his first goal in Serie A since March 2024.

Loftus-Cheek has recorded 10 progressive carries of 10 yards or more in Milan's first two games of 2025-26, the most of any Serie A midfielder. He averages 3.9 per 90 minutes in the Italian top flight, and since he joined Milan, only Tijjani Reijnders (3.94) has bettered that figure among midfielders to play 3,200 minutes or more.

Loftus-Cheek will be determined to make up for lost time after being overlooked for three major tournaments, while Morgan Rogers is another hoping to stake a claim.

Rogers has appeared in all four of England's games under Tuchel, starting two of their three World Cup qualifiers, and the absences of injured trio Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka could ensure he is included from the off at Villa Park.

Rogers is one of three Villa players hoping to get a runout at their club home, alongside defender Ezri Konsa and striker Ollie Watkins.  

Can Andorra keep things tight?

Andorra are highly unlikely to be doing much but sitting back, soaking up the pressure and firmly parking that bus. Where's Jose Mourinho when you need him?

But, it is worth noting that Andorra did frustrate Tuchel's team back in June, when England only won 1-0. That was the first time in the seven meetings between these teams that the Three Lions had not scored at least twice.

Andorra really do not have another option, though, than to rely on their defence.

They have managed just two shots on target and only 16 attempts in total across their four World Cup qualifiers this year.

Four of Andorra's shots in qualifying so far came in that meeting with England back in June, but none hit the target, as the minnows accumulated only 0.3 xG.

Andorra are one of only three European teams, along with Liechtenstein and Malta, yet to score a goal in this qualifying cycle, while their 0.9 xG is the second-worst and no team has had fewer shots on target.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

England – Ollie Watkins

Harry Kane has been involved in 54 goals in 38 qualifying matches for major tournaments (World Cup/Euros), scoring 43 and assisting 11. 

He is also looking to score in six consecutive games for England for a fourth time – something only achieved six times by all other players in the Three Lions' history.

However, there is every chance Kane's minutes are limited, with Tuesday's match in Belgrade representing a bigger test. If that is the case, Villa striker Watkins will be desperate for a chance at his home stadium.

Watkins is yet to appear under Tuchel, having missed the previous two international windows through injury. His most recent England goal came against Greece in the Nations League last year, during Lee Carsley's spell as interim boss.

Watkins has endured a tough start to the Premier League season, with Villa yet to score after three matches. Among all players yet to find the net in 2025-26, he ranks joint-third for shots taken (eight) and second for expected goals (1.1 xG).

Andorra – Iker Alvarez

Iker Alvarez has taken the place of veteran Josep Gomes in the Andorra net, and the Cordoba goalkeeper will expect to be busy.

Only Finland's Lukas Hradecky (21) made more saves than Alvarez (20) in the first two match windows of World Cup qualifying.

Alvarez has conceded eight goals, though he has faced 9.84 expected goals on target (xGoT) in his four appearances.