The Numbers Game: Haaland and Salah eye records as Man City face Liverpool

Ten weeks into the Premier League season, Arsenal boast a six-point buffer at the top of the table, with two familiar rivals giving chase.

They are Manchester City and Liverpool, who are only separated by a single point in second and third, respectively.

Both Pep Guardiola and Arne Slot will know there is little margin for error when they go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, following encouraging Champions League victories for both teams in midweek.

Liverpool followed up their 2-0 Premier League win over Aston Villa with an impressive 1-0 triumph over Real Madrid, while City routed Borussia Dortmund 4-1.

And in Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah, both teams have a player eyeing a place in the Premier League record books.

Here, we use Opta insights to preview the game.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is siding with City ahead of Sunday's match, but not by a decisive margin.

City won 46.9% of the supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations, with 26.7% going Liverpool's way and the remaining 26.4% finishing all square. 

The supercomputer also fancies City to end above Liverpool in the season predictions. Guardiola's side finish second in 30.8% of projections – their most common position.

Second is also considered Liverpool's most likely position, though their chances of being runners-up are rated at 26.8%.

But it is Arsenal that are huge favourites to claim the crown, doing so in 71.5% of season simulations. City top the pile in 13.5% and Liverpool do so in 9.7%.

City lost both of their Premier League meetings with Liverpool by a 2-0 scoreline last season. Only against Manchester United, in 2020, has Guardiola ever seen one of his teams go three straight games without a goal against a particular side (in all competitions).

That is as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 12 games against the Reds (four wins, six draws), and they last lost more consecutively against them between March 2015 and December 2016 (four).

Liverpool could now win consecutive away games against City for the first time since a run of three straight road victories between 1987 and 1991, at the old Maine Road.

But City have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against reigning champions (one draw, one defeat), most recently a 4-1 victory against Liverpool at Anfield in February 2021.

Century in Haaland's sights

Haaland may just be in the form of his life.

He is coming off the back of a Champions League goal against his former club Dortmund, having also netted twice in City's 3-1 league win over Bournemouth last Sunday.

The City striker has now scored a brace in each of his last four Premier League appearances at the Etihad. Should that run continue here, he would reach a century of Premier League goals.

Haaland currently has 98 goals in 107 outings in the competition, and the current record for the fewest games required to reach 100 goals belongs to Alan Shearer, with 124. 

The Norwegian will smash that record at some point, but few would bet against him doing so this weekend.

Haaland leads all players for goals (13), expected goals (10.25 xG), shots (43) and shots on target (25) in the 2025-26 competition. 

And the 25-year-old would relish achieving his landmark goal against Liverpool, an opponent he has generally struggled against.

Haaland has only scored once in four Premier League appearances against the Reds, only versus Newcastle United and Aston Villa (both one goal in five games) does he have a worse goal-per-game ratio in the competition. 

He has scored 65% of City's Premier League goals this season (13/20), but with his supporting cast stepping up in recent weeks, suggestions that Guardiola's side are overly reliant on their star striker appear unfounded.

Just five players have created at least 20 chances in the Premier League this season, and Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku (both 20) are among them. They are both enjoying their best-ever Premier League campaigns for chances created per 90 minutes, with Doku averaging 3.3 and Foden on 2.9. 

Salah close to record as Reds bounce back

Liverpool halted their four-game losing streak in the Premier League last week, with Salah getting his 250th goal for the club in their routine triumph over Villa at Anfield.

Of all his goals for the club, few have come easier. Emiliano Martinez played an errant pass straight to the feet of the Egyptian, who simply side-footed into an unguarded net.

Salah now stands on the brink of another Premier League record, having recorded 276 goal involvements for Liverpool (188 goals, 88 assists) in the competition.

Wayne Rooney (183 goals and 93 assists for Manchester United) is the only other player to match that figure for a single club, and Salah will attempt to overhaul the England great against an opponent he has had plenty of joy against.

Salah has nine goals and six assists against City in the Premier League – the most any player has achieved when facing them in the competition's history.

With Salah continuing to contribute, and Slot confirming ahead of the game that Alexander Isak would join team training on Friday, Liverpool's main issue this season has not been a lack of firepower. Instead, the Dutchman has repeatedly referenced his team's struggles when defending long balls.

But that is a problem the Reds may not have to concern themselves with this week. 

City's 60 build-up attacks in the Premier League this season are almost double the tally achieved by their closest competitors, Arsenal (36), and Guardiola's men also lead the way for sequences containing 10 passes or more, with 174.

Only Chelsea, West Ham and Wolves move the ball upfield with a slower direct speed than City, who progress the play by 1.66 metres per second. Liverpool rank second in the league by the same metric, and the two most recent teams to beat the Reds – Crystal Palace and Brentford – are first and third, respectively.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Ryan Gravenberch 

Gravenberch returned from injury in last week's victory over Villa and brought both guile and grit to Slot's midfield, also getting through 90 minutes during Tuesday's win over Madrid.

Since the start of 2023-24, Liverpool have won 66.2% of the Premier League games in which Gravenberch has appeared (47/71).

Their win rate without the Dutchman drops to 53.3% (8/15), while their points-per-game average drops from 2.2 to 1.8.

Manchester City – Rayan Cherki

While Doku and Foden have earned plenty of plaudits in recent weeks, Cherki has also stepped up, recording two assists in last week's 3-1 victory over Bournemouth and scoring late on against Dortmund.

In all competitions, he has achieved multiple assists in five different games this calendar year – the most such matches by any player from Europe's top five leagues.