Numbers Game: Ekitike and Thiago to go head-to-head as Liverpool visit Brentford

Liverpool got back to winning ways impressively in midweek, shaking off any concerns about their attacking downturn by blowing Eintracht Frankfurt away in a 5-1 Champions League win.

Hugo Ekitike, Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai were all on target in Germany, with the Reds' attack finding form after Arne Slot's bold decision to drop Mohamed Salah.

But they return to Premier League action already four points adrift of Arsenal after eight games, following successive 2-1 losses to Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Manchester United – seeing them concede in the 84th minute or later in all three. 

The Reds face a potentially tricky trip to the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday, with Brentford approaching the game in high spirits after Monday's 2-0 win at West Ham.

The Bees have only lost one of their five competitive home games under Keith Andrews, falling to a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City prior to the last international break.

Could they sting the champions and leave them even further off the title pace, or will the Reds follow up their morale-boosting midweek win with three important points? 

We dive into the Opta data to preview Saturday's late kick-off, picking out the key players and storylines to watch.

What is expected?

The Opta supercomputer is predicting a first Premier League victory in over a month for Liverpool, who were victorious in 54% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Brentford are given a 23.5% chance of taking all three points, and a 22.6% probability of holding their visitors to a draw.

Liverpool's recent slump has seen their hopes of retaining the title slip to 15.8% in the supercomputer's Premier League season predictions, making them third favourites behind Arsenal (55.2%) and Manchester City (18.2%). 

Brentford, meanwhile, are assigned a 38% chance of finishing in the top half, and their chances of being relegated are now down at 4.1%.

Liverpool only managed one victory in their first three Premier League meetings with Brentford (one draw, one defeat), but they have since won their most recent five.

The Reds were 2-0 victors in both fixtures between the teams last season, and they have scored at least once in all eight of their Premier League games against Brentford.

It is their second-best 100% scoring rate against a single opponent in the competition, having netted in all 14 of their meetings with Queens Park Rangers.

But Slot's team have a dire recent record in London, losing each of their last four Premier League away games there. They last lost on five consecutive league visits to the capital between March and November 1970.

Liverpool have lost five of their last eight away games in the Premier League overall (three wins), as many losses as they recorded in their previous 43 on their travels (23 wins, 15 draws).

They could now lose three consecutive away league matches for the first time since January and February 2023, and that run included a 3-1 defeat at Brentford, their only Premier League loss to the Bees.

Clinical Thiago could cause champions problems

Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak are names that come to mind when assessing the Premier League's prolific marksmen. 

But Brentford's Igor Thiago, who missed most of his debut campaign with the Bees in 2024-25 due to a serious knee injury, has put himself in that conversation this season.

Only Haaland (11) and Bournemouth star Antoine Semenyo (six) have more goals in the competition this term than the Brazilian, who moved to five goals for the campaign by netting the opener in Monday's 2-0 win at West Ham, also having another strike ruled out for a marginally offside decision.

Thiago has hit the target with exactly half of his Premier League shots this season (nine of 18). 

Excluding blocks, he has a shooting accuracy of 69.3%, and no player in the competition has attempted as many shots as Thiago, while remaining that accurate with their finishing. 

Against West Ham, Thiago had the most shots (six), shots on target (three), shots from inside the box (six) and touches in the opposition box (10) of any player on the pitch.

And though Liverpool's frontline found form in Germany on Wednesday, their defensive record remains very suspect. 

The Reds have not kept a clean sheet since beating Burnley 1-0 in early September, conceding in eight straight games across all competitions since then. They are, of course, without regular goalkeeper Alisson, so Giorgi Mamardashvili will deputise again.

Brentford – who have Liverpool's former title-winning captain Jordan Henderson in midfield – have won two of their last three Premier League matches, more than in their previous seven combined (W1 D2 L4). They should not be expected to make things easy. 

Salah and Isak struggles offer chance for Ekitike

Salah was limited to the role of a 74th-minute substitute against Eintracht, with even Federico Chiesa introduced before the Egyptian.

Chiesa came on at half-time, after British-record signing Isak was withdrawn due to a groin injury, which could threaten his prospects of facing Brentford. 

Isak's fitness setback could mean Salah is reintroduced into Slot's lineup, but after matching the single-season Premier League goal involvement record in 2024-25, he has been a shadow of his former self this campaign.

Per 90 minutes in the Premier League, Salah is averaging fewer goals (0.25 to 0.77), xG (0.3 to 0.68), shots (1.89 to 3.46), shots on target (0.76 to 1.63), touches in the opposition box (6.18 to 10.5), assists (0.25 to 0.48) and chances created (2.02 to 2.37) this season, compared to last term.

Salah has a good record versus Brentford, registering seven goal involvements (six goals, one assist) in seven Premier League outings against them. Only versus Watford (every 76 minutes) and Bournemouth (87) does he boast a better minutes-per-goal ratio in the top flight than against the Bees (96), among teams he has faced at least seven times.

But even if Salah returns to the starting XI, he has played a more peripheral role this season, following Liverpool's influx of new attacking talent.

Ekitike was one of those to make the move to Anfield, and he bit the hand that used to feed him on Wednesday, scoring Liverpool's equaliser to set them on course for a comfortable victory, just when it looked as though they might struggle again.

Ekitike's six goals in all competitions this season are at least two more than any other Liverpool player, and his shot conversion rate of 23.1% is also the best in the Reds' squad (minimum 10 shots attempted). 

The Frenchman, who has netted three times in just 415 minutes of Premier League action, also offers versatility across the front three. If Isak is sidelined and Salah's poor form continues, he could stand to emerge as Liverpool's new talisman.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Brentford – Michael Kayode

While Thiago has been Brentford's standout player this campaign, Kayode created seven chances for Brentford against West Ham, with six coming from open play.

That former figure is the joint-most by a player in a Premier League match this season, and those seven chances account for 37% of the opportunities Kayode has created across 20 appearances in the competition overall (7/19).

The right-back also boasts a troublesome long throw, so Van Dijk and Konate had better be prepared for an aerial bombardment.

Liverpool – Cody Gakpo 

Along with Ekitike, Gakpo is Liverpool's joint-leading scorer in the Premier League this season, with three goals.

However, he should have had more than one goal in last week's defeat to United, having missed a glaring late chance after hitting the woodwork three times.

That made him just the second Liverpool player on record (since 2003-04) to hit the woodwork three or more times in a single Premier League match, after Darwin Nunez against Chelsea in January 2024 (four times).

The Netherlands international will hope for more luck in West London.