The Numbers Game: Arsenal's stubborn rearguard goes up against Liverpool's fierce attack

Somehow, Liverpool have maximum points from their opening two Premier League games.

That is despite throwing away 2-0 leads against both Bournemouth and the 10 men of Newcastle United.

Federico Chiesa turned the game from the bench against Bournemouth at Anfield on August 16, and then Rio Ngumoha became the fourth-youngest scorer in Premier League history to seal a remarkable 3-2 win over Newcastle on Monday.

Liverpool are the first side to win both of their opening two games of an English top-flight season despite conceding multiple goals in each since Newcastle in 1960-61. The Magpies went on to be relegated that campaign.

We all like to make sweeping statements just two games into a new season. This term, it seems that Liverpool’s firepower is getting a vulnerable defence out of trouble.

Arne Slot seemed to criticise the physicality and intensity with which Newcastle played in that ill-tempered encounter at St James’ Park, but it should be noted that Liverpool committed 15 of the game’s 32 fouls (which is a high mark for the Premier League so far this season, albeit it is a small sample size).

And when it comes to physicality and fierce defending, there aren’t many teams better than Liverpool’s next opponents –– perennial nearly men Arsenal.

The pressure, at least from some quarters in the media, is seemingly on Mikel Arteta to go one step further this season after finishing second in the top flight in each of the past three campaigns.

Arsenal have spent big on Viktor Gyokeres to rectify their need for a striker, while they have added former Liverpool target Martin Zubimendi to their midfield and Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze to the attack.

But it’s at the back that Arsenal continue to shine. They have kept two clean sheets, beating Manchester United 1-0 and Leeds United 5-0, while their expected goals against (xGA) is 1.7 – the fifth-lowest in the division.

So, it’s a stern defence going up against an excellent attack in Sunday's early-season tussle between two likely title contenders. Indeed, this is the earliest the previous season’s top two sides are meeting in a Premier League campaign since 2017-18, when Chelsea won 2-1 at Tottenham in matchweek two.

Using Opta data, we preview Sunday's clash between Liverpool and Arsenal.

What’s expected?

Liverpool must be wary. They might have two wins from two, but their recent record against Arsenal is not good – the Reds are actually winless in six Premier League encounters with the Gunners (D4 L2), which is their longest winless run against Arsenal since a run of eight between October 2007 and April 2011.

However, Arsenal have a poor record at Anfield, where they are winless in 12 games since a 2-0 victory in September 2012, which saw Arteta start in the visitors' midfield.

The last three Premier League games between Liverpool and Arsenal at Anfield have all been drawn, and the Opta supercomputer is anticipating another tight encounter.

Liverpool are backed as the favourites, with a 44.9% win probability.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have a 29.7% chance of taking all three points, while this match finished level in 25.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.

And despite Arsenal’s excellent defensive record, you should expect goals in this one.

Only Liverpool versus Tottenham (206) has seen more goals, among all Premier League fixtures, than Arsenal against Liverpool (198). 

Since the 2015-16 campaign, it has seen the most goals of any fixture (78 in 20 games).

Arne's Slotters

It feels ridiculous to be overly critical of Liverpool given they have a 100% record, but Slot must know that his team are not performing to their maximum, and that will have to change if they are to maintain their (im)perfect start.

But although we have touched on Liverpool's unusually leaky defence, Slot's team have been excellent going forward, as they have been since the Dutchman took charge.

In fact, Liverpool have found the net in 98% of their Premier League matches under Slot (39/40) – the highest percentage of games scored in by any manager with 15 or more games in the competition's history.

The Reds have scored 93 league goals since the start of last season. They have netted 17 more than any other top-flight team in that time, while also having the highest xG (86.4).

Liverpool are now on the joint-third-longest Premier League scoring streak, having netted in their last 36 games in the competition. Only Arsenal (55 between 2001 and 2002) and Tottenham (39 between 2023 and 2024) have scored in more consecutive matches in the competition, and Slot's team are approaching a full calendar year since they last failed to find the net in a top-flight game (0-1 versus Nottingham Forest on September 14, 2024).

A goal in this game would see Liverpool set a new club record, after the Reds also went 36 successive games with a goal under Jurgen Klopp between 2019 and 2020.

Liverpool were clinical in the extreme against Newcastle, scoring from three of their five attempts. Indeed, after the Reds scored their second goal through Hugo Ekitike in the 46th minute, they did not have another attempt until Ngumoha curled home deep into stoppage time.

On top of their scoring streak, Liverpool also love a late goal. They have won more Premier League games via last-minute goals than any other side in the history of the competition, with Ngumoha's strike being their 46th. Arsenal rank second on the list with 34.

It was a teenage dream for Ngumoha, who became just the second 16-year-old to score a winning goal in a Premier League game, after Wayne Rooney in October 2002 for Everton, versus Arsenal.

Injury concerns hampering Arteta?

Arsenal's 5-0 defeat of Leeds did come at a cost, with Arteta losing both Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka to injury.

Saka went off with a hamstring problem just before Gyokeres opened his Arsenal account to make it 3-0 to the Gunners, while Odegaard had gone off with a shoulder problem in the first half.

Saka is now set for around a month on the sidelines, according to reports, and he was left out of Thomas Tuchel's latest England squad on Friday.

Odegaard, meanwhile, was named in Norway's squad for their upcoming fixtures and there is more hope regarding his potential participation.

Visiting the champions without Saka would put even more strain on Arsenal's defence, of course, so it is a good job for Arteta that the Gunners have been so resolute.

When Saka has not featured for Arsenal in the league since he broke into the team, the Gunners' average goals per game drops to 1.5, compared to 2.0 with the England winger in the side.

Without their most enterprising wide player, there will be even more pressure on Arsenal to create chances from set-pieces.

Since the start of 2023-24, Arsenal have scored 33 corner goals in the Premier League – more than any other side in Europe’s big five leagues in that timeframe. The Gunners have also scored from a corner in their last three games – they have never done so in four games in a row before.

And if Arteta's team were to come away with a win and a clean sheet, it would be the first time Arsenal have won their opening three league matches without conceding since 1924-25. 

Eze, meanwhile, will hope to make his debut following his big-money move from Crystal Palace. He has already beaten Liverpool once this season, with the Eagles having overcome the Reds in the Community Shield.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool - Mohamed Salah

Ekitike, with three goals in the space of three competitive matches for Liverpool, has made a flying start to life in England, while Salah - by his lofty standards - has been kept relatively quiet.

Yet the Egyptian nevertheless scored against Bournemouth and teed up Liverpool's winner at Newcastle. Salah (272 for Liverpool) now ranks outright second, behind Rooney (276 for Manchester United) when it comes to Premier League goal involvements for one club.

Salah has also plundered 30 of Liverpool's top-flight goals under Slot, while he also leads the Reds’ squad for xG (25.6), assists (19) and goal involvements (49) in that time. He has netted 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal, with only Harry Kane (14) and Rooney (12) scoring more against the Gunners.

One of Salah's goals against the Gunners came for Chelsea, while the other 10 have been for Liverpool – only Roberto Firmino has more against Arsenal for the Reds (11).

Arsenal - Viktor Gyokeres

Gyokeres was the leading scorer in Europe’s top 10 leagues in 2024-25, plundering 39 Primeira Liga goals, eight more than next-best Kylian Mbappe.

Indeed, only Salah (47) registered more goal involvements in Europe’s top 10 leagues than Gyokeres (46).

However, thriving in the Portuguese game with Sporting CP is different to hitting it off in the Premier League, so the Sweden international will have been delighted to get off the mark with a double against Leeds.

His brace came after a frustrating debut against Man Utd, in which he failed to have a single shot in a league game for the first time since April 2023, for Coventry City against Blackburn Rovers in the Championship. That ended a run of 69 league appearances in which he had registered at least one attempt. 

Grabbing a goal at Anfield would certainly help Gyokeres prove he is up to the task.