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European Hot Shots: Stuttgart’s surprise package Serhou Guirassy

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It has been a season of surprise for VfB Stuttgart. 

By Sam McGuire

The 2022/23 campaign saw them avoid relegation after beating 2.Bundesliga side Hamburg in a play-off. They lost captain Wataru Endo to Liverpool, centre-back Konstantinos Mavropanos joined West Ham United, first-choice goalkeeper Florian Müller signed for Bundesliga rivals SC Freiburg while Borna Sosa, the highly-rated full-back, moved to Ajax. 

In one single summer, four key players departed the MHPArena. 

Many tipped them for another relegation battle yet as we head into April,  Sebastian Hoeneß has his side sitting in third place in the Bundesliga and in a strong position to claim an unlikely Champions League spot. 

VfB Stuttgart are six points clear of fourth-placed Borussia Dortmund and seven clear of RB Leipzig, the team currently in fifth. Only Bayern Munich (19) and Bayer Leverkusen (22) have won more games than Die Roten (18) this season. With just eight matches remaining in the Bundesliga, it would take something truly astonishing for Hoeneß and his players to miss out on a deserved top-four place. 

Key to their success this season has been Serhou Guirassy. 

The 28-year-old could best be described as a nomadic striker. Since making his debut during the 2013/14 campaign for Laval B in the third tier of French football, Guirassy has turned out for nine teams. Granted, a few of those have been B teams. But still, he has moved about an awful lot and has never really been able to find a home. 

He’s played for the likes of Lille, Rennes, Auxerre and FC Köln before finding himself on loan with VfB last season. Despite the team’s struggles, Guirassy had a successful year from an individual point of view. He found the back of the net on 11 occasions which, until this term, was a career-best return. 

With so much change for Stuttgart, few would’ve expected him to build on those performances having made his move a permanent one in the summer. Hoeneß, to his credit, has made it work though. In the recent win over Hoffenheim, the starting XI included four summer signings (five if you want to include Guirassy) while another two new faces made an appearance off of the bench. 

This squad overhaul has sparked something within this Stuttgart team though. Players have taken their game to new heights. Guirassy certainly falls into that category. 

Guirassy, now valued at €42million, has netted 22 goals and has one assist to his name in just 1,498 minutes. Reportedly a target for Bayern Munich, Spurs and Manchester United, he is second in the race for the Bundesliga Golden Boot while only Harry Kane (38) can eclipse his 23 goal contributions this term. 

Only Kane (one) has a higher Expected goals per 90 average than the Stuttgart forward (0.89) while no player in the German top-flight can better Guirassy’s return of 1.32 goals per 90. 

What makes all of this even more impressive is the fact he isn’t heavily reliant on volume. The No. 9 doesn’t rank in the top 10 for shots per 90 in the Bundesliga and is averaging 3.8 (13th highest). 

Yet there has been a jump in output this season when compared with last term. For example, he’s averaged more shots, up from the 2.6 he was attempting last season. This, in turn, has seen his Expected Goals average spike from 0.6 to 0.89. The big difference, however, is his shot placement. 

Last season, his Expected Goals on Target average was 0.62. He wasn’t necessarily adding value to his effort but he wasn’t devaluing them either. He was just a consistent threat. This season has been a different story. His Expected Goals on Target average has risen to 1.01 on a per 90 basis. 

His finishing has been better and this has resulted in him scoring more goals. It sounds simple, but to continuously add value to your efforts is not something many strikers can do. Guirassy’s is hitting the corners. He’s also landing over 50% of his efforts on target. This is a good combination and it is why he’s managed to jump from goal threat to goalscorer over the past 12 months. For context, last season he was only getting 40% of his shots on target. Still a good amount but he’s managed to scale things this term. 

Bayern reportedly viewed him as a back-up to Kane and it is easy to see why. He makes the most of his opportunities. He’s been the surprise package in the surprise team in the Bundesliga this term and that is some achievement.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every VfB Stuttgart game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

European Hot Shots: Stuttgart’s surprise package Serhou Guirassy

It has been a season of surprise for VfB Stuttgart. 

By Sam McGuire

The 2022/23 campaign saw them avoid relegation after beating 2.Bundesliga side Hamburg in a play-off. They lost captain Wataru Endo to Liverpool, centre-back Konstantinos Mavropanos joined West Ham United, first-choice goalkeeper Florian Müller signed for Bundesliga rivals SC Freiburg while Borna Sosa, the highly-rated full-back, moved to Ajax. 

In one single summer, four key players departed the MHPArena. 

Many tipped them for another relegation battle yet as we head into April,  Sebastian Hoeneß has his side sitting in third place in the Bundesliga and in a strong position to claim an unlikely Champions League spot. 

VfB Stuttgart are six points clear of fourth-placed Borussia Dortmund and seven clear of RB Leipzig, the team currently in fifth. Only Bayern Munich (19) and Bayer Leverkusen (22) have won more games than Die Roten (18) this season. With just eight matches remaining in the Bundesliga, it would take something truly astonishing for Hoeneß and his players to miss out on a deserved top-four place. 

Key to their success this season has been Serhou Guirassy. 

The 28-year-old could best be described as a nomadic striker. Since making his debut during the 2013/14 campaign for Laval B in the third tier of French football, Guirassy has turned out for nine teams. Granted, a few of those have been B teams. But still, he has moved about an awful lot and has never really been able to find a home. 

He’s played for the likes of Lille, Rennes, Auxerre and FC Köln before finding himself on loan with VfB last season. Despite the team’s struggles, Guirassy had a successful year from an individual point of view. He found the back of the net on 11 occasions which, until this term, was a career-best return. 

With so much change for Stuttgart, few would’ve expected him to build on those performances having made his move a permanent one in the summer. Hoeneß, to his credit, has made it work though. In the recent win over Hoffenheim, the starting XI included four summer signings (five if you want to include Guirassy) while another two new faces made an appearance off of the bench. 

This squad overhaul has sparked something within this Stuttgart team though. Players have taken their game to new heights. Guirassy certainly falls into that category. 

Guirassy, now valued at €42million, has netted 22 goals and has one assist to his name in just 1,498 minutes. Reportedly a target for Bayern Munich, Spurs and Manchester United, he is second in the race for the Bundesliga Golden Boot while only Harry Kane (38) can eclipse his 23 goal contributions this term. 

Only Kane (one) has a higher Expected goals per 90 average than the Stuttgart forward (0.89) while no player in the German top-flight can better Guirassy’s return of 1.32 goals per 90. 

What makes all of this even more impressive is the fact he isn’t heavily reliant on volume. The No. 9 doesn’t rank in the top 10 for shots per 90 in the Bundesliga and is averaging 3.8 (13th highest). 

Yet there has been a jump in output this season when compared with last term. For example, he’s averaged more shots, up from the 2.6 he was attempting last season. This, in turn, has seen his Expected Goals average spike from 0.6 to 0.89. The big difference, however, is his shot placement. 

Last season, his Expected Goals on Target average was 0.62. He wasn’t necessarily adding value to his effort but he wasn’t devaluing them either. He was just a consistent threat. This season has been a different story. His Expected Goals on Target average has risen to 1.01 on a per 90 basis. 

His finishing has been better and this has resulted in him scoring more goals. It sounds simple, but to continuously add value to your efforts is not something many strikers can do. Guirassy’s is hitting the corners. He’s also landing over 50% of his efforts on target. This is a good combination and it is why he’s managed to jump from goal threat to goalscorer over the past 12 months. For context, last season he was only getting 40% of his shots on target. Still a good amount but he’s managed to scale things this term. 

Bayern reportedly viewed him as a back-up to Kane and it is easy to see why. He makes the most of his opportunities. He’s been the surprise package in the surprise team in the Bundesliga this term and that is some achievement.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every VfB Stuttgart game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.