The Numbers Game: Can West Ham cause another Old Trafford upset?

Manchester United got back to winning ways last weekend, but are now back at home, looking to build some momentum.

They stumbled last time out at Old Trafford, but having now lost just one of their last seven matches, United are keeping themselves in the mix in the congested middle of the Premier League table.

However, West Ham have proven a bogey team over the last couple of years and provide another hurdle for Ruben Amorim's side to try and clear.

But the Hammers are chasing a response to last weekend's loss to reigning champions Liverpool, which ended their unbeaten streak.

Nuno Espirito Santo's side have struggled on the road, but can he get his side firing and cause another shock at Old Trafford?

Here, we look at the Opta data to preview Thursday's clash.

What's expected?

Going into this match, recent history seems to favour West Ham, who have got the better of United in the pair's recent meetings.

United have lost four of their last five league games against West Ham (W1), more than they had in the 28 beforehand (W19 D6 L3).

And West Ham won this exact fixture 2-0 in May, ending a 16-game winless streak away to the Red Devils in the top-flight (D3 L13).

They have not won consecutive league visits to Old Trafford since March 1934, however.

The Hammers did the league double over United in 2024-25 and are looking to win three in a row against them for the first time since December 2006 and December 2007.

Despite all of that, the Opta supercomputer believes United's home advantage will work in their favour, with Amorim's side winning 59.4% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

West Ham do get that third consecutive win against United in 19.4% of those, with a further 21.2% chance of leaving Manchester with a point.

United hoping for home comforts

United's 1-0 loss to 10-man Everton is the only blip on their recent record, with Amorim overseeing four wins and two draws besides that since the start of October.

It had looked like United had turned Old Trafford into a hard place to visit before that result, having won four consecutive games on home soil after their opening-day loss to Arsenal.

But Amorim has lost nine of his 19 Premier League games at the stadium (W8 D2).

Should they lose this match, he would become the fastest United boss to suffer 10 such top-flight defeats – the current fastest is 23 games by AH Albut between 1892 and 1894.

And December has not been favourable for United in the recent past either, as they have lost nine of their last 14 league matches in the month (W4 D1), including each of the last three without scoring.

Prior to that run, they had been unbeaten in 15 games in December (W12 D3), which is form that Amorim will be keen to tap into.

It does help that United are unbeaten in their last 17 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League home games (W14 D3), winning the last eight.

In the 2-1 win over Palace, Joshua Zirkzee, who has been reinstated to the United line-up in the injured Benjamin Sesko's absence, found his shooting boots again. He netted his first league goal since a brace against Everton in December 2024, ending a run of 364 days without one.

However, it is at the other end where Amorim will be keen to find some stability. Senne Lammens kept a clean sheet in his first appearance in the 2-0 win over Sunderland.

That is United's only shutout in 2025-26 so far, though, and they have conceded 20 goals in 13 matches from 18.8 expected goals against (xGA).

Overall, they have faced 144 shots, with 50 of those on target. In the nine games he has played, Lammens has made 16 saves from the 25 shots on target he has faced.

Nuno looking to end away woes

Like United, West Ham have wrongs they will want to put right, especially after the disappointing nature of their 2-0 loss to Liverpool, in which Lucas Paqueta was sent off.

After 13 games, they have just 11 points (W3 D2 L8) – only in 2010-11 (nine) and 2017-18 (10) have they had fewer at this stage of a Premier League campaign.

Prior to that result, West Ham were unbeaten in three matches, winning both at home in that run, but drawing the only away game, giving up a 2-0 half-time lead against Bournemouth.

And West Ham's struggles on the road have been clear this season. Since a 3-0 win over Nuno's Nottingham Forest side in August, they are winless in their last four away games (D2 L2), all of which have come under their new boss.

The last Hammers boss to fail to win any of his first five was Avram Grant back in 2010 (his first nine games).

But, in better news for Nuno, West Ham have lost just two of their 13 Premier League games played on a Thursday (W6 D5).

Only two of those have come outside of London (wins against Southampton in 2018 and 2024), but it is still a good omen for them.

Despite their failure to get an away win since the end of August, West Ham have a more solid defensive base on the road, conceding 10 goals compared to the 17 they have shipped at the London Stadium.

As such, it is at the other end they need to improve if they want to catch out United, given they have only scored seven times away from home, though they have slightly outperformed their 6.0 expected goals (xG).

Their total shots (56) are also down on their travels (71 at home), with just 20 of those testing the opposition goalkeeper. Only four West Ham players have had more than one shot on target, with Callum Wilson responsible for seven.

Wilson has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games, including a brace against Bournemouth in their last away match.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

Bruno Fernandes has played more Premier League games against West Ham without scoring than any other club (11).

He has failed to score with any of his 27 shots against the Hammers during that time.

Fernandes will still attempt to have an impact in front of goal, though. He provided his 55th and 56th assists for United in the Premier League against Palace, moving him past Paul Scholes (55). Only Ryan Giggs (162), Wayne Rooney (93), and David Beckham (80) have provided more for the Red Devils in the competition.

West Ham – Jarrod Bowen

Jarrod Bowen scored in both of West Ham's meetings with United in the Premier League last season (two goals).

The last player to score in three games in a row against them for the Hammers was Jermain Defoe (2001-2002).

However, Bowen has not hit the back of the net since the end of September, scoring against Everton, and has gone seven games without a goal, despite having 16 shots worth 0.9 (xG) since that game.