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Would a move away from Milan unlock Rafael Leao’s true potential?

Would a move away from Milan unlock Rafael Leao’s true potential?

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For a while now, Rafael Leão has been a big fish in a small pond. 

By Sam McGuire

The 26-year-old has been the main man for AC Milan for four seasons. He may have signed for the Serie A club in 2019, moving from Lille for an initial €35million, but it took the versatile forward two years to fully acclimatise to life in Italy. After all, he was playing for a third team in three seasons at the age of just 20. Sometimes, patience is needed. 

Patience certainly paid off though. When Milan won the 2021/22 Serie A title, Rafael Leão was one of the key players for the Rossoneri. He had the most goal involvements for the club in the league and claimed a FotMob rating of 7.51, an average that only Theo Hernández could better.

Season summary for Leão’s time at Milan

Since then, he’s been fairly consistent for the Italian giants. During the 2022/23 campaign, he was the highest rated Milan player with a FotMob rating of 7.39. He also ranked first for goal involvements. He topped the average rating charts again in 2023/24 with a rating of 7.45 but had to settle for a third-place finish in the goal involvements chart. Last season, his 7.21 FotMob rating was third in the Milan squad, but he did rank second for league goal involvements (16) behind Christian Pulisic. 

So, across the past four seasons, he’s been ever present in the top three for FotMob rating and goal involvements. And this is even more impressive when you consider the changes at Milan over that time. 

Stefano Pioli, Paulo Fonseca and Sérgio Conceição have managed the club across these four seasons. Franck Kessié, Alessio Romagnoli, Sandro Tonali, Pierre Kalulu, Yacine Adli, Ismaël Bennacer and Oliver Giroud have all departed too. 

It hasn’t exactly been a consistent environment for Leão. It hasn’t been a club that has everything in place to allow him to flourish. He hasn’t fulfilled the abundance of potential he possesses. 

When he burst onto the scene with Sporting, he was tipped to be the next Cristiano Ronaldo. Many have been likened to the legendary forward in the past but few had the same traits as Leão. The versatile winger was taller than your average winger, he had a very upright, powerful dribbling stance and he was explosive over short and long distances. Not only was he quicker than most defenders but he also had the physique to physically bully them.

Leão’s player traits, with comparison against similar players in top 5 leagues

You could understand the similarities between Leão and Ronaldo, even at a glance. But, unlike his compatriot, Leão has allowed himself to get a little too comfortable.  

The Portugal international has regularly been linked with big-money moves but he seems quite content with Milan. Per reports, he’s the club’s top earner now. He wears the No. 10 jersey and he’s a key part of their attacking unit.

He’s coasting at Milan. He’s well compensated and is fairly free from any real pressures the majority of the time. There’s no real reason for him to seek a move.

But, if reports are accurate, the 2021/22 Serie A champions are clearing the decks this summer and starting again. Theo Hernãndez and Mike Maignan are said to be departing along with Tijjani Reijnders, who has already joined Manchester City. There’s also been talk in Italy that a number of clubs, including Bayern Munich and Liverpool, are looking at Leao.

And this could finally be the summer he moves out of his comfort zone. He could go from being the biggest fish in a small pond to being a small fish in a big pond. And you know what? It might be the best thing for his career. 

The Nations League final against Spain was a glimpse of how impactful Leão can be when he’s not the main man. When he’s part of the supporting cast, he can be quite unstoppable.

He played just 46 minutes in the final but was the most fouled player (six). The 26-year-old attempted four dribbles and had two touches in the box against the reigning European champions. Whenever he picked up possession, they looked worried. He was aggressive and direct with the ball. They didn’t really know how to deal with him, so they just kept fouling him. 

Put that sort of player in a star studded forward line and he’ll create chaos. Imagine him alongside Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala, for example. Or even in an attack made up of Mohamed Salah and Florian Wirtz. 

If he buys into it and accepts his role as a supporting attacker, with aspirations of being the best, the potential is outright scary. His numbers have been low-key quite good too over the years. 

Across his last four seasons in the Italian top-flight, he has 43 goals and 35 assists. During this period, he has an Expected Goals total of 37.2 and an Expected Assists average of 31.3. 

This works out at an average of 9.3 xG per campaign and 7.8 xA.

Last season, across 2,323 minutes in Serie A, Leão averaged 2.56 shots, 0.29 xG and 0.33 xA. That is a 0.62 xG Involvement on a per 90 basis, playing as a left-winger for a team that finished in eighth position.

Leão’s possession numbers, Serie A 2024/25

Leão, per the UEFA website, racked up a top speed of 36.5km/h too. He’s one of the quickest players in the world. The 40-cap Portugal international has a fairly long deal with Milan (2028 contract) but if they’re looking to rip it all up and start again, £50million could go quite far. 

Milan might want a fresh start but Leão definitely needs a fresh start if he’s to level up. He has all of the tools needed to be one of the best left wingers in Europe. He just needs the environment. 

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can track all the summer moves via the FotMob Transfer Centre. Download the free app here.

Would a move away from Milan unlock Rafael Leao’s true potential?

For a while now, Rafael Leão has been a big fish in a small pond. 

By Sam McGuire

The 26-year-old has been the main man for AC Milan for four seasons. He may have signed for the Serie A club in 2019, moving from Lille for an initial €35million, but it took the versatile forward two years to fully acclimatise to life in Italy. After all, he was playing for a third team in three seasons at the age of just 20. Sometimes, patience is needed. 

Patience certainly paid off though. When Milan won the 2021/22 Serie A title, Rafael Leão was one of the key players for the Rossoneri. He had the most goal involvements for the club in the league and claimed a FotMob rating of 7.51, an average that only Theo Hernández could better.

Season summary for Leão’s time at Milan

Since then, he’s been fairly consistent for the Italian giants. During the 2022/23 campaign, he was the highest rated Milan player with a FotMob rating of 7.39. He also ranked first for goal involvements. He topped the average rating charts again in 2023/24 with a rating of 7.45 but had to settle for a third-place finish in the goal involvements chart. Last season, his 7.21 FotMob rating was third in the Milan squad, but he did rank second for league goal involvements (16) behind Christian Pulisic. 

So, across the past four seasons, he’s been ever present in the top three for FotMob rating and goal involvements. And this is even more impressive when you consider the changes at Milan over that time. 

Stefano Pioli, Paulo Fonseca and Sérgio Conceição have managed the club across these four seasons. Franck Kessié, Alessio Romagnoli, Sandro Tonali, Pierre Kalulu, Yacine Adli, Ismaël Bennacer and Oliver Giroud have all departed too. 

It hasn’t exactly been a consistent environment for Leão. It hasn’t been a club that has everything in place to allow him to flourish. He hasn’t fulfilled the abundance of potential he possesses. 

When he burst onto the scene with Sporting, he was tipped to be the next Cristiano Ronaldo. Many have been likened to the legendary forward in the past but few had the same traits as Leão. The versatile winger was taller than your average winger, he had a very upright, powerful dribbling stance and he was explosive over short and long distances. Not only was he quicker than most defenders but he also had the physique to physically bully them.

Leão’s player traits, with comparison against similar players in top 5 leagues

You could understand the similarities between Leão and Ronaldo, even at a glance. But, unlike his compatriot, Leão has allowed himself to get a little too comfortable.  

The Portugal international has regularly been linked with big-money moves but he seems quite content with Milan. Per reports, he’s the club’s top earner now. He wears the No. 10 jersey and he’s a key part of their attacking unit.

He’s coasting at Milan. He’s well compensated and is fairly free from any real pressures the majority of the time. There’s no real reason for him to seek a move.

But, if reports are accurate, the 2021/22 Serie A champions are clearing the decks this summer and starting again. Theo Hernãndez and Mike Maignan are said to be departing along with Tijjani Reijnders, who has already joined Manchester City. There’s also been talk in Italy that a number of clubs, including Bayern Munich and Liverpool, are looking at Leao.

And this could finally be the summer he moves out of his comfort zone. He could go from being the biggest fish in a small pond to being a small fish in a big pond. And you know what? It might be the best thing for his career. 

The Nations League final against Spain was a glimpse of how impactful Leão can be when he’s not the main man. When he’s part of the supporting cast, he can be quite unstoppable.

He played just 46 minutes in the final but was the most fouled player (six). The 26-year-old attempted four dribbles and had two touches in the box against the reigning European champions. Whenever he picked up possession, they looked worried. He was aggressive and direct with the ball. They didn’t really know how to deal with him, so they just kept fouling him. 

Put that sort of player in a star studded forward line and he’ll create chaos. Imagine him alongside Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala, for example. Or even in an attack made up of Mohamed Salah and Florian Wirtz. 

If he buys into it and accepts his role as a supporting attacker, with aspirations of being the best, the potential is outright scary. His numbers have been low-key quite good too over the years. 

Across his last four seasons in the Italian top-flight, he has 43 goals and 35 assists. During this period, he has an Expected Goals total of 37.2 and an Expected Assists average of 31.3. 

This works out at an average of 9.3 xG per campaign and 7.8 xA.

Last season, across 2,323 minutes in Serie A, Leão averaged 2.56 shots, 0.29 xG and 0.33 xA. That is a 0.62 xG Involvement on a per 90 basis, playing as a left-winger for a team that finished in eighth position.

Leão’s possession numbers, Serie A 2024/25

Leão, per the UEFA website, racked up a top speed of 36.5km/h too. He’s one of the quickest players in the world. The 40-cap Portugal international has a fairly long deal with Milan (2028 contract) but if they’re looking to rip it all up and start again, £50million could go quite far. 

Milan might want a fresh start but Leão definitely needs a fresh start if he’s to level up. He has all of the tools needed to be one of the best left wingers in Europe. He just needs the environment. 

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can track all the summer moves via the FotMob Transfer Centre. Download the free app here.