The Numbers Game: Title hopefuls Chelsea and Man City kick off new WSL season

All eyes are back on the Women's Super League this weekend, and it gets underway with a clash between familiar foes.

Reigning champions Chelsea won their sixth straight WSL title last season, with Sonia Bompastor impressing in her debut campaign, and they welcome Manchester City to Stamford Bridge for their opener.

The Citizens were not at their best in 2024-25, resulting in Gareth Taylor's departure mid-season, and Andree Jeglertz, former Denmark head coach, has stepped into the dugout to try and change their fortunes.

It has been nearly 10 years since City got their hands on their sole league trophy, but they face a tough task if they want to stop Chelsea from running away with a seventh straight triumph.

The teams faced off five times in all competitions last season, providing endless entertainment, and both sides will be keen to gain an early advantage in the title race.

So, who will keep out on top? Here, using Opta data, we preview Friday's clash.

What's expected?

Chelsea and City became very familiar with each other last season, and they might be keeping a close eye on each other this campaign, too, with both predicted to be in the title fight.

Unsurprisingly, given they have won the last six WSL titles in a row, Chelsea are expected to lift the trophy again in May, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances at 72.3%.

City are their closest competitors according to the predictive model, with a 13.7% chance of winning the title, while Arsenal are not far behind them at 10.1%. Manchester United are the only other team in the mix, though their hopes are a slim 3.9%.

For now, that is still a long way off, not that either manager will want to give the opposition an early advantage here.

Recent history sits in Chelsea's favour, with the Blues winning four of their five meetings with City last season (L1). They have also won six of their last seven home matches against the Citizens (L1), including both games to nil last term.

And City have won just one of their last four WSL games against Chelsea across the last two campaigns (D1 L2), though that victory did come away from home in February 2024 (1-0), marking the Blues' only loss across their last 48 home league games (W45 D2).

Jeglertz's side will have to upset the odds in order to kick off their season with a win, though, as Chelsea are strong favourites, winning 61.3% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations.

City came away from Stamford Bridge with all three points in 18.3% of those, while their chances of a draw are slightly higher at 20.4%.

Does Bompastor still have the magic touch?

Bompastor seamlessly picked up where Emma Hayes left off in her first season, overseeing an unbeaten WSL campaign, to win the title as part of a domestic treble.

She became just the second manager to win the WSL in her debut season, after Arsenal's Laura Harvey, who would also clinch top spot in her second campaign in 2012.

Chelsea are unbeaten in each of their last 25 WSL games (W22 D3), with only the Blues themselves (33 games between February 2019 and January 2021) and City (31 games between May 2015 and May 2017) ever putting together longer such streaks.

They set a new points record for a single season, finishing with 60 points, two more than their previous best of 58 in 2022-23, and also set the best points-per-game rate of a campaign of 2.73, bettering Arsenal's 2.7 in 2018-19 (54 points).

It is safe to say, Bompastor took the league by storm, and she boasts the best win rate in WSL history (86%), ahead of Arsenal's Renee Slegers (78%).

Chelsea's success was helped by an impressive defensive base. They conceded just 13 goals in the league, the best in the WSL, with Hannah Hampton keeping 13 clean sheets across the season.

In fact, seven of Chelsea's 19 WSL wins last season came by a 1-0 scoreline, the most wins by the same exact score by a team in a single season in the competition's history.

Should Bompastor's side triumph against City, the Frenchwoman will pick up her 20th WSL win in her 23rd match, seeing her reach the milestone two games sooner than the previous quickest manager (Jonas Eidevall, 25).

And that is a strong possibility as Chelsea are often quick out of the blocks, especially when starting a season on home soil.

The Blues are unbeaten in their last eight such matches (W6 D2), since a 1-0 loss to Arsenal in the first game played in WSL history in 2011.

A new era at City

Man City endured a tumultuous 2024-25 season, with Nick Cushing in interim charge following Taylor's departure days before their League Cup final against Chelsea, which they subsequently lost.

City ended up missing out on a top-three spot, with a draw against Manchester United on the penultimate matchday consigning them to a fourth-place finish.

They recorded their worst points-per-game rate in a WSL season (2.0 – 43 from 22) since their first campaign in the competition back in 2014 (1.4).

But Jeglertz, who joined City after Denmark's group-stage exit from Euro 2025, will be keen to make his mark and, given that City lost just one of their final nine games last term (W5 D3), he has a strong base to build on.

One key area that needs improvement is in defence. Last season, City scored the third most goals (49 from 46.7 expected goals), but conceded 28, more than the three teams that finished above them (Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd). The Citizens faced 25.3 expected goals against (xGA), meaning they let in more goals than expected.

However, they were also known for their resilience, recovering 13 points from losing positions in the WSL in 2024-25 – more than any other team – a trait Jeglertz will be keen to keep.

He will be the third Swedish manager to take charge of a WSL game, with the previous two also seeing their first game in the competition come against Chelsea (Eidevall, 3-2 win with Arsenal and Robert Vilahamn, 2-1 loss with Tottenham).

City will play away from home in their opener for the sixth consecutive season, but they have won just one of their last three MD1 fixtures, beating West Ham in 2023-24 (D1 L1), with Jeglertz knowing a win against Chelsea could be exactly the early boost they need in his tenure.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Chelsea – Lucy Bronze

Bronze showed her strength at the Euros over the summer, playing through the tournament with a fractured tibia. She played 598 minutes across the tournament, a total only bettered by three other players for England.

Now returning to league action, she is looking to continue an impressive run. Bronze has not ended on the losing side in any of her last 69 league appearances across the WSL and Spanish Primera Division (W65 D4), since losing to Chelsea with Man City in February 2022.

Her 28-game unbeaten streak specifically in the WSL (W25 D3) is the longest by a player since Leah Williamson between February 2021 and February 2023 (31).

Manchester City – Lauren Hemp

Hemp is aiming to become the second player in WSL history to assist in five straight appearances after Beth Mead in 2018-19, managing six assists in that run.

The Englishwoman finished as the leading assister in the 2024-25 campaign despite playing just 10 matches (eight assists – her joint-best tally in the competition).

She also created more chances than anyone else in the City team (35), with nine of them being classed as 'big' opportunities for her team-mates.