The Numbers Game: Man Utd and Arsenal's winning starts on the line in WSL

Two of the early pacesetters in the Women's Super League go head-to-head on Sunday, with their perfect records on the line.

Manchester United sit top of the table heading into matchday two, and their visitors to Leigh Sports Village, Arsenal, are just behind them on goal difference.

Both sides have scored nine goals so far, with United only conceding once to Arsenal's two, setting up an intriguing clash.

Unlike their visitors, the Red Devils were in midweek action, overturning a 1-0 first-leg deficit to beat Brann and reach the Champions League's main draw for the first time, thanks to Elisabeth Terland's hat-trick.

Though it is so early in the season, this match could set a precedent in the title race, with both sides looking to keep pace with champions Chelsea and surprise package Tottenham as the only teams on six points.

But will either side be able to preserve their 100% record this weekend? We delve into the Opta data to preview this standout WSL clash.

What's expected?

Man Utd will be full of confidence heading into Sunday's match, but history is not on their side against Arsenal.

They have failed to win any of their last four WSL meetings with the Gunners (D2 L2), since a 1-0 home win in April 2023, with that victory coming courtesy of an Alessia Russo goal.

Arsenal have won two of their last three games against United (D1), as many as in their previous eight meetings with them in all competitions (W2 D2 L4).

That run includes a huge 4-3 victory for Arsenal on the final day of last season at the Emirates, with those three points ensuring they finished second in the table, ahead of United.

Only against Chelsea (five games) have United failed to win more games on home soil in the WSL than they have against Arsenal (four – D2 L2), but that does not stop the Opta supercomputer from favouring them this weekend.

United are given a 40% chance of maintaining their perfect start to the campaign, while Arsenal's hopes of preserving their same record sit at 33.4%.

Both teams could still come out of the weekend unbeaten after their first three WSL matches, with a draw occurring in 26.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

United find free-flowing front line

Last season, Man Utd's top-three push was built on a strong defence, and while they have carried that form into the new campaign, Marc Skinner has also seen improvements in their forward play.

Already, United have blown their old records out of the water; their previous best goal tally after two games of a WSL season was six goals (2020-21 and 2022-23).

So far, United have won both of their last two WSL games by four or more goals, netting five last time out for the first time in a league game since November 2023 against West Ham.

The Red Devils have never before won three successive matches in the competition by four or more goals.

Though it would seem likely that Arsenal will end that run, United's impressive finishing has caught the eye so far, and they sit joint-top of the scoring charts along with the Gunners, while Melvine Malard is the current leading goalscorer (four goals).

Some goals have even come from an unlikely source, with Maya Le Tissier both scoring and assisting in two of her last three WSL matches, after never doing so in her previous 123 appearances in the competition.

After the first two matches, United have the second-highest expected goals (xG) total (4.9), behind Arsenal (5.2), and have had the third-most shots (31), but they boast the highest shot conversion rate at 29%.

And United have home advantage on their side. They have lost just one of their last 12 games at home in the WSL (W8 D3), 1-0 against Chelsea in April earlier this year.

United's resolute defence will be key to ensuring that continues, though; only Spurs (0 goals) have conceded fewer than Skinner's side this season, despite them conceding 17 shots worth 2.3 xG.

Comeback queens ready to strike

Renee Slegers will be delighted with the fight her side have shown in recent weeks, but she will be hoping for a more straightforward affair in Manchester.

In both matches so far this season, Arsenal have gone 1-0 down, marking the first time in WSL history that they have won back-to-back matches by coming from behind.

In fact, should the same happen again at Leigh Sports Village, the Gunners would become the first team in WSL history to be losing in three consecutive games before coming back to win all of them.

Some nerves may start to set in if they do concede the first goal, though, as Arsenal have lost two of their last three away matches in the WSL (W1), as many defeats as in their previous 13 (W9 D2).

However, the Gunners have only faced 1.1 expected goals against (xGA) across the first two matchdays, also conceding just nine shots, with both of those totals the lowest in the league so far.

They did win their last game on the road 5-1 against West Ham, last enjoying a bigger margin of victory away from home in April 2022 (5-0 versus Leicester City).

Like United, Slegers' side have treated their fans to free-flowing forward play, and they scored five goals for the fifth time in the WSL under the Dutchwoman against the Hammers.

Arsenal average 3.4 goals per game under Slegers, the best rate of any manager in the competition's history, meaning this match is likely to promise goals.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Melvine Malard

Malard is enjoying somewhat of a resurgence this season, having already matched last season's goal haul in her two starts this term.

She is the sixth player to score at least twice in both of a team's opening two games of a WSL season, though none have ever done so in a side's first three matches.

The only players to score more than four times in a team's first three matches of a campaign are Rachel Williams in 2011 (five goals), Jill Roord in 2020-21 (six) and Vivianne Miedema in 2021-21 (five).

Malard has scored with all four of her shots on target so far this season, netting her haul from chances worth 1.7 expected goals (overperformance of 2.3).

Arsenal – Alessia Russo

Russo is once again returning to her old club, and this time, she has a landmark in sight.

She has scored 48 goals in 91 Women's Super League appearances and could become the fifth-fastest player to reach a half-century of strikes in the competition, with only Vivianne Miedema (50 matches), Khadija Shaw (57), Sam Kerr (62) and Fran Kirby (75) doing so quicker.

Russo has already netted two goals this term, getting both late on in their dominant win over West Ham last time out.

She has only previously scored one goal against United, but it came in Arsenal's last away match against the Red Devils, in a 1-1 draw.