The Numbers Game: Haaland targets Premier League pick-me-up against Brentford

Manchester City have looked vulnerable throughout the opening weeks of the season, not least in Wednesday's 2-2 Champions League draw with Monaco.

Erling Haaland struck twice in the first half of that game, but Monaco twice fought back from a goal down, with Eric Dier's last-gasp penalty salvaging a point. 

Those dropped points led to some... interesting post-match comments from Haaland, who has 11 goals already this season but has been frustrated by City's inconsistency.

But in the Premier League, Pep Guardiola's men did close the gap to early-season pacesetters Liverpool to five points last week, thrashing Burnley 5-1 while the Reds were beaten by Crystal Palace.

In Sunday's late kick-off, City visit a Brentford team that are looking up, rather than down, after continuing their strong home form with a 3-1 victory over Manchester United last time out.

Ahead of the game, we dive into the Opta data to pick out the storylines and players to keep an eye on.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is backing City to stretch their unbeaten run in the Premier League to four games on Sunday.

They are assigned a 48.9% chance of victory, compared to Brentford's 27.2% win probability. The remaining 23.9% of pre-match simulations finished level.

In Opta's latest Premier League season predictions, City are still third-favourites for the title, topping the pile in 10.3% of scenarios. Liverpool are still out in front at 41.9% with Arsenal at 37.7%, while Guardiola's men get the consolation prize of a top-four finish in 60.8% of projections.

Brentford, meanwhile, are now seen as more likely to make the top six (11.2%) than they are to suffer relegation (8.8%), having been tipped to struggle following the departure of Thomas Frank and the sales of Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Christian Norgaard and Mark Flekken.

City have only lost once in four Premier League trips to the Gtech Community Stadium (W2 D1), with that defeat coming on the final day of 2022-23, when they had the title wrapped up and were on their way to a memorable treble.

That win completed a Premier League double for Brentford over City, but since then, the Bees are winless in their last four head-to-head meetings in the competition (D1 L3).

Keith Andrews has managed to make the Gtech a fortress again in his early weeks at the helm, with Brentford winning two of their three home Premier League games this season and drawing the other against Chelsea.

Overall, the Bees have won four of their last six Premier League home games (D1 L1), having endured an eight-match winless run on their own turf under Frank last season, failing to score on five occasions during that streak.

Clinical Brentford eye Manchester double

Having ruthlessly exploited Ruben Amorim's under-fire Man Utd side last week, Brentford have a very rare feat within their grasp.

In Premier League history, only one team has previously faced both Manchester clubs in back-to-back fixtures and emerged with maximum points, with Tottenham beating United 4-1 and City 1-0 back in January 1996.

While United were masters of their own downfall on multiple occasions last week, Brentford will hope to reap more rewards from their rapid counter-attacking style.

A comprehensive opening-day defeat at Nottingham Forest prompted some concern from the Bees' supporters, but since then, Andrews has delivered results while staying true to the dynamic, efficient brand of football they played under Frank.

Although Brentford have attempted the joint-fewest shots in the Premier League this season (51), they rank joint-sixth for goals scored (nine), with only City (18.4%) bettering their 17.7% shot conversion rate.

City and Brentford have also scored the joint-most goals from fast breaks in the competition, with three apiece, so Sunday's game could be something of an end-to-end affair. 

And if Brentford are to earn another headline-making win, they may need Igor Thiago to continue his fine form in front of goal. 

The Brazilian has scored five goals from six shots on target in all competitions this season, and in the Premier League, he has netted four times from just 10 total attempts, giving him the highest shot conversion rate of any player to register 10 or more shots (40%).

Guardiola targets 250th win, Haaland looks to shake off frustrations

Guardiola has already written his name into the Premier League record books on numerous occasions, and another record will be his very soon. 

The former Barcelona and Bayern Munich boss has won 249 Premier League games with City, meaning he could pass the 250-mark in just his 349th match in the competition.

Whenever City next taste victory, he will obliterate the previous record for the fewest Premier League games needed to bring up 250 wins by a manager, with Arsenal legend Arsene Wenger doing so in 423 matches.

While City cruised past Burnley last week, Guardiola will be desperate for them to improve defensively, if they are to mount a serious challenge for Liverpool's title.

City squandered two leads against Monaco in midweek, and across their last two away games in the Premier League – versus Brighton and Arsenal – they have spent over two hours ahead on the scoreboard without winning either match (D1 L1).

After that game, Haaland made his feelings clear about City's up-and-down form, telling BBC Sport: "I'm p***** off, I think everyone should be. It's not good enough."

"Of course I don't feel good, we didn't win. We do something unnecessarily in the second half and we don't think we played well enough. We didn't deserve to win.

"We need more energy. We need to get at them more as we did in the first half and dominated much more."

At least the Citizens can continue to rely on the big Norwegian, whose midweek brace took him to 52 Champions League goals, in just 50 outings in the competition. 

That is at least nine more than any other player managed in their first half-century of games in Europe's premier club competition (Ruud van Nistelrooy scored 43), while nine of the 51 teams to reach 50 Champions League games did not manage as many goals in that span as Haaland has.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Brentford – Caoimhin Kelleher

While Brentford were good value for their victory over United last week, things could have been so different had Kelleher not saved a second-half penalty from Bruno Fernandes.

Kelleher has saved four of the seven penalties he has faced in all competitions in his top-flight club career for Liverpool and Brentford (57%).

Manchester City – Phil Foden

Foden has only scored more Premier League goals against Brighton (eight) than he has against Brentford (seven), with six of his goals against the Bees coming at the Gtech Community Stadium.

Most memorably, he hit a hat-trick on the ground in a 3-1 victory for City in 2023-24, as they edged out Arsenal over the back end of the season to retain the Premier League title.