The Numbers Game: Pickford clear as Tuchel's number one as England close in on World Cup place

Although Thomas Tuchel was disappointed not to see his England side build on a three-goal lead against Wales on Thursday, he was impressed with the performance of goalkeeper Jordan Pickford.

The Everton shot-stopper wrote his name into the history books after his clean sheet against Wales at Wembley Stadium, becoming the first England goalkeeper to go eight consecutive games without conceding a goal for the Three Lions.

Pickford surpassed his previous joint record of seven from 2021 and Gordon Banks' run of shutouts in 1966, which was ended by Portugal's Eusebio in the World Cup semi-final that year.

The 31-year-old has maintained his role as England's number one since the 2018 World Cup, despite several goalkeepers hoping to challenge him for the role over the past few seasons.

Aaron Ramsdale fought for the spot during his time as Arsenal's starting goalkeeper, while Nick Pope, Dean Henderson and Sam Johnstone all put their names in the hat too.

But after all the competition he faced, and still faces, Pickford continues to go from strength to strength when wearing the England badge on his chest.

And with Pickford standing firm behind a resolute defence, England are now closing in on qualification for the 2026 World Cup. 

Following Serbia's loss to Albania on Saturday, a win for England in Riga on Tuesday would see the Three Lions secure a place at next year's tournament.

What's expected?

This will be the second meeting between Latvia and England, with the first coming in March this year when the Three Lions won 3-0 at Wembley thanks to goals from Reece James, Harry Kane and Eberechi Eze.

Latvia will be the 72nd nation England have played an away match against; they have won their last three maiden away games against a nation (3-2 v Slovenia in 2015, 3-0 v Lithuania in 2015 and 4-0 v Kosovo in 2019).

England have won each of their last five away games in all competitions, their best run since November 2008 – the Three Lions last won six consecutive away games between May 1970 and December 1971.

They have also won each of their last eight competitive fixtures, their longest winning run since winning 10 straight under Roy Hodgson between September 2014 and October 2015. 

England have been backed as overwhelming favourites for this fixture by the Opta supercomputer, which has run 10,000 data-led simulations.

The Three Lions have been given an 84.3% chance of victory, while hosts Latvia were handed a 7.3% probability of causing a major upset. The likelihood of a draw comes in at 8.4%.

Will Pickford prove vital for Tuchel like he was for Southgate?

Speaking about Pickford after their win against Wales, Tuchel said: "He’s a fantastic shot stopper. There is no doubt about it.

"There was a challenge for him because they pressed us high. And we want to escape the pressing. We want to have the chance to escape the pressing, also with short passes, and not only with long shots from him. So, he did very well.

"He kept his composure. He kept calm. This is basically what we demand of him. He stayed calm, kept his focus."

England are yet to concede a competitive goal in five matches under Tuchel, with Pickford's five clean sheets in UEFA 2026 World Cup qualifiers the most of any goalkeeper.

The Three Lions have kept eight clean sheets in their last nine matches; their only blemish in this run was a 3-1 friendly defeat against Senegal in June, during which Crystal Palace's Henderson played the full 90 minutes.

Pickford has only had to make one save in the five qualifying matches so far, however, and that is also largely down to England's strength at the back.

Prior to this October international break, 24 of the 54 European nations competing in World Cup 2026 qualification had only played two games compared to England's five, but the Three Lions had faced fewer shots on target than any other nation (one), going 316 minutes since last facing one against Latvia in March.

Nevertheless, Pickford also played a key role in the transformation of the England national team under Southgate.

He became the first England goalkeeper to win more than one penalty shoot-out at a major tournament, doing so at the 2018 World Cup against Colombia and Euro 2024 versus Switzerland.

In the four major tournaments Pickford has participated in between 2018 and 2024, he has conceded 18 goals from 19 expected goals on target (xGoT), which came from 73 shots on target.

He has now kept 40 clean sheets for his country, 18 short of England's all-time leading appearance-maker, Peter Shilton's record.

And though England's defensive solidity seemed to come at the expense of attacking flair during Tuchel's opening matches in charge, the Three Lions have shown their bite in the final third in their most recent games, plundering eight goals across two fixtures.

Under Tuchel, England are averaging 643 successful passes per game, 17 shots per game and 42 touches in the opposition box per game, all far higher totals than their averages under Southgate (526 successful passes, 13 shots and 28 touches in the opposition box). 

Latvia's near-impossible task

Following their 2-2 draw against Andorra, Latvia will have to beat England if they want to have any chance of reaching the play-offs for the World Cup.

However, Latvia have lost their last 14 matches against sides in the top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings by an aggregate score of 41-1.

They last avoided defeat against such an opponent in a 0-0 draw at Euro 2004 against Germany.

This will be Latvia's seventh game against a nation ranked inside the top five of the FIFA world rankings, losing each of the previous six by an aggregate score of 19-0 – that includes their 3-0 loss to England in March this year.

Latvia have lost 13 of their 15 matches against Home Nations, with the exceptions being wins against Northern Ireland in June 1995 and September 2007.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Latvia – Vladislavs Gutkovskis

Vladislavs Gutkovskis scored from the penalty spot in Latvia's draw against Andorra before also seeing a potential winner ruled out for offside moments later.

The 30-year-old had just one shot, which was the spot-kick, while his 27 touches were the fewest of any Latvian outfielder to start the game.

If Latvia are to stand a chance of claiming an unlikely victory, they will need to get their number nine more involved.

England – Harry Kane

Harry Kane missed England's 3-0 win against Wales, but after featuring in their final training session on Monday, and an injury to Ollie Watkins, the Three Lions skipper could feature against Latvia.

Kane has 35 goals involvements in 36 away appearances for England (25 goals, 10 assists), most recently finding the back of the net in a 5-0 win in Serbia in September.

He has also enjoyed a fast start to his season with Bayern, scoring 11 goals and registering three assists in six Bundesliga games.