The Numbers Game: Arsenal out to extend lead over Chelsea in Stamford Bridge tussle

Arsenal are six points clear at the top of the Premier League, but their nearest rivals are now Chelsea.

The Blues beat Burnley last week and, with Manchester City losing to Newcastle United, it is now Enzo Maresca's team who sit second heading into the weekend.

That could change by the time Sunday's game at Stamford Bridge rolls around, but both teams come into this clash on the back of wins over European heavyweights in the Champions League.

Chelsea's confidence will be sky-high after they thrashed Barcelona 3-0.

It was their biggest margin of victory over Barcelona in the competition, while the Blues also became just the third side to beat Barca at least five times in the competition after Bayern Munich (10) and Paris Saint-Germain (six).

The Gunners, however, beat Bayern 3-1 on Wednesday to follow up their 4-1 thrashing of Tottenham in the north London derby.

And although Chelsea strengthened their self-proclaimed ‘Pride of London’ title by winning the Club World Cup in the summer, Arsenal are currently the top dogs in the capital.

Since the start of the 2022-23 campaign, Arsenal have lost just three of their 40 London derby matches in the Premier League (W28 D9), with just one of those defeats coming away from home (1-2 vs Fulham in December 2023).

Arteta’s side have already beaten West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Tottenham in the league this season, while they face Brentford following their trip to Chelsea.

Now, Chelsea have the chance to make a statement in their bid to prove they are title challengers, while Arsenal could extend the gap even further.

Here, we dive into the best Opta statistics ahead of this huge clash.

What's expected?

Chelsea have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Arsenal (D3 L7) and are winless in seven (D2 L5) since a 2-0 win at Emirates Stadium in August 2021.

And having lost six of their seven away games in the league against Chelsea between 2013 and 2018 (D1), Arsenal are now unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge (W3 D3).

This will be just the fifth time Arsenal have faced Chelsea while top of the table in the Premier League, with the Gunners winning each of the previous four – 3-2 in January 2003, 2-1 in February 2004, 1-0 in December 2007 and 5-0 in April 2024.

The Opta supercomputer expects the Gunners to continue their fine run against the Blues.

Arsenal have been given a 41.9% chance of victory, while Chelsea have a 32.6% probability of halving their rivals’ lead at the top of the Premier League.

A draw has been given a likelihood of 25.5%, but after their respective wins over Barcelona and Bayern, neither side will want to settle for a point.

Pretenders to contenders?

A Chelsea win on Sunday would see them move to within three points of the Gunners, and perhaps really show they should be considered as title contenders this term.

That being said, Opta's model makes Chelsea most likely to finish second or third (both 19.6%), with the Blues' chances of winning the title rated at just 4.8%. That probability would surely change, though, if they were to win here.

A fast start could be crucial, and Chelsea have opened the scoring in each of their last seven league games. It is their longest run of scoring first since April 2024 (also seven), a run that was ended by a 5-0 loss to Arsenal.

However, it must be said that Chelsea’s home record has been far from impressive in the league in 2025-26.

Just 43.5% of Chelsea’s Premier League points this season have come in home games (10/23), with only Tottenham (28%) earning a lower share of their points at home.

Nevertheless, their 3-0 win over Barca meant they have now scored six goals without reply in their last two home games after also beating Wolves by the same scoreline.

Chelsea have won five of their last six Premier League games (L1), winning three successive league matches to nil for the first time since March 2022 after a 2-0 victory against Burnley last time out.

Arteta not feeling the Blues

On Wednesday, Arsenal claimed their first win over Bayern since 2015, ending a winless run of five matches against the German giants; they were also boosted by the return of captain Martin Odegaard.

The Norway international missed eight fixtures in all competitions after suffering a knee injury against West Ham in early October, but he will be desperate to extend his excellent record against Chelsea.

Odegaard is unbeaten in eight games against the Blues (W6 D2), and with two goals and five assists, he has been directly involved in more Premier League goals against Chelsea than any other opponent (seven).

Arteta also boasts a strong record against the Blues.

The Spaniard has the third-highest Premier League win rate against Chelsea (58.3% - 7/12) of any manager to take charge of 10+ games against them, behind Pep Guardiola (61.1%) and Kenny Dalglish (76.9%).

Arsenal have scored 24 goals and conceded 13 in 12 games against Chelsea since Arteta took charge of the team, though his first defeat at the helm came against the Blues in December 2019.

Trossard was taken off during the first half of Arsenal’s win over Bayern, with Arteta revealing they did not want to take a risk with the winger, who had aggravated an injury.

Only against Liverpool (six) has Trossard scored more Premier League goals than he has against Chelsea (four).

His next goal will be his 50th in the English top-flight, and he will be the fifth Belgian to reach this milestone after Romelu Lukaku (121), Christian Benteke (86), Eden Hazard (85) and Kevin De Bruyne (72).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Chelsea - Pedro Neto

Neto has been involved in five goals in his last five Premier League games (three goals, two assists), and is looking to score in three matches on the spin for the first time.

The Portuguese winger has been involved in three goals in his last four starts against Arsenal (two goals, one assist), netting the Blues’ equaliser in the corresponding fixture last season, which finished 1-1.

Arsenal - Eberechi Eze

Eberechi Eze has registered four goal involvements in his last two games, scoring a hat-trick against Tottenham before assisting Gabriel Martinelli against Bayern.

In fact, Eze has now scored four goals in his last four league appearances for Arsenal, albeit three of those, of course, came last week against Spurs.

He registered one goal and one assist against Chelsea last season in the English top-flight, while he also had a goal disallowed at Stamford Bridge when Crystal Palace held the Blues to a 0-0 draw on the opening weekend.