Kovac to hold off on Dortmund judgement

Niko Kovac will not judge Borussia Dortmund's start to the Bundesliga season until six games have passed, warning that their first opponents St. Pauli will be a "tough nut to crack".

Dortmund snuck into fourth place on the final day of the 2024-25 season, clinching Champions League qualification after spending 30 matchdays outside the top four.

Kovac was appointed in January following the dismissal of Nuri Sahin, when Dortmund were 11th in the table.

But they won 22 of 24 possible points (seven wins, one draw) over the last eight matchdays of the season – a league-best total. 

Dortmund also finished the campaign with five successive wins, their best streak since 2023, scoring at least three goals in each match.

A run of six consecutive Bundesliga wins with at least three goals would equal the club's record, which was set back in 2015.

But ahead of Saturday's trip to the Millerntor-Stadion, Kovac is not expecting a flying start, pointing out Dortmund are still recovering from their run to the quarter-finals of the Club World Cup.

"I don't judge a start based on the first Bundesliga matchday, but rather after six games – three home and three away games," Kovac said.

"Then you can say approximately where you stand and what you can still expect. The body needs six to eight weeks to adapt. 

"Last season, we were still working on stamina and playing games at the same time – that will certainly be the case for some time this season too."

St. Pauli finished 14th in their first campaign back in the top flight, conceding a mere 41 goals in 34 games. Only champions Bayern Munich (32) conceded fewer.

"We'll have a tough nut to crack there," Kovac said. "They go forward with a very direct style of football. 

"We'll have to be careful there too, in terms of our own positioning. We have to try to keep the opposition as far from goal as possible."

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

St. Pauli – Mathias Pereira Lage

Pereira Lage is set to make his Bundesliga debut after arriving from French club Brest, having scored 16 goals and provided 16 assists in 160 appearances in Ligue 1. 

Last season, he achieved a personal best with seven assists in league action, averaging 0.4 assists per 90 minutes. Only Bradley Barcola (0.41) and Rayan Cherki (0.48, at least 1,000 minutes of play) surpassed that figure in the French top flight.

Borussia Dortmund – Serhou Guirassy 

Guirassy scored 21 goals last Bundesliga season, second only to Bayern's Harry Kane (26). His 15 Bundesliga goals since the turn of the year are the most of any player, and he ended last season on a five-match scoring spree.

If he makes it six successive games with a goal here, that will equal his personal record, having achieved that feat with Stuttgart in March and April 2024.

MATCH PREDICTION – BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN 

St. Pauli and Dortmund will meet for the 19th time in the Bundesliga, with BVB winning 11 of their last 12 Bundesliga encounters, and one of those finishing level.

This is Dortmund's longest ongoing unbeaten streak against any current Bundesliga club. 

Only against Energie Cottbus have BVB collected more points per game (2.4) than they have against St. Pauli (2.3), of all clubs they have faced at least 10 times in their top-flight history.

The hosts are approaching a second successive Bundesliga campaign for the first time since 1995-96 and 1996-97. 

On the first matchday of last season, they lost 0-2 at home to Heidenheim, but they have never started two consecutive Bundesliga seasons with a defeat.

St. Pauli had the weakest attack in the Bundesliga last season, scoring 28 goals. That made them just the second team to score fewer than 30 goals and avoid automatic relegation, after Arminia Bielefeld in 2020-21 (26), and they may struggle to threaten the visitors.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

St. Pauli – 22.9%

Borussia Dortmund – 52.7%

Draw – 24.4%