The Numbers Game: Man City look to end Tottenham hoodoo at the Etihad

The Premier League got back underway with a bang last weekend, and the second round of fixtures promises just as much intrigue.

One of the standout matches will take place on Saturday as two teams who made a winning start in Manchester City and Tottenham, face off at the Etihad Stadium.

Pep Guardiola's side sit top of the standings after week one, with a 4-0 win at Wolves propelling them above the other strong starters.

Spurs are not far behind, though, after beginning life in the Premier League under Thomas Frank with a 3-0 victory over newly promoted Burnley on home soil.

Tottenham have often proven a tough test for Guardiola during his managerial career, and they will be hoping they can pull off another surprise as they attempt to build some early momentum.

With both teams looking to make it two wins from two this weekend, who will come out on top in Manchester?

Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key insights ahead of Saturday's clash.

What's expected?

Unsurprisingly, City are expected to be in the mix for the title this year, putting last year's struggles behind them, and they are overwhelming favourites to continue their winning start here. 

City came out on top in 61.7% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations and earned a win in their first home match of the campaign.

Spurs, meanwhile, are given just an 18.7% chance of earning a surprise victory, with their hopes of a draw slightly higher at 19.6%.

However, recent history suggests Spurs may be able to overturn the odds.

Spurs have won two of their last four Premier League games at the Etihad (D1 L1), more than they did in their previous 11 visits combined (D2 L8).

And following their 4-0 victory last season, they are looking for consecutive wins away at City for the first time since May 2010.

And City have won just four of their last 12 top-flight matches against Spurs (D2 L6). Though they beat them 1-0 in their last meeting in February, they have not secured consecutive league wins against them since December 2017 and April 2019 (four in a row).

Spurs beat City twice in all competitions last season, also knocking them out of the EFL Cup in the round of 16 with a 2-1 win at home, and the Citizens might not be as confident despite their favourites tag.

Can City overcome Spurs hoodoo?

During Man City's torrid run of form in the middle of the season, one of the lowest moments came back in November with their heavy loss at Spurs' hands.

Ange Postecoglou's side blew the hosts away, with James Maddison scoring an early brace before Pedro Porro and Brennan Johnson piled on the misery.

That match marked the first time Guardiola had lost a home game by four goals in his managerial career, but it is not the only time Spurs have pulled one over the Spaniard.

In all competitions, Guardiola has lost nine games against Tottenham in his managerial career, only losing more against Liverpool (10). They are also one of three teams he has faced 10 or more times and won fewer than half of his games against (11/23, 48%).

The other sides to do similarly are Liverpool (6/24, 6%) and Real Madrid (13/47, 48%).

Away from home against Spurs, City tend to have more luck, but it is at the Etihad where they struggle to contain their opponents. They have not kept a clean sheet against Spurs on home soil since a 3-0 win in February 2021.

In fact, the four Premier League meetings between City and Tottenham at the Etihad since then have produced 21 goals (nine for the hosts, 12 for Spurs), with the away side netting at least twice in all four.

But form is on City's side. Since the start of April, they have picked up more points than any other top-flight side (26) and are the only ever-present side to remain unbeaten in that time (W8 D2). 

They also have the most clean sheets (seven) and have faced the fewest shots per game of any side in the division since April (7.6), something that Spurs will definitely be aiming to test.

City's new signings have started strongly, though, with Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki both getting on the scoresheet on their Premier League debuts for the club.

But Erling Haaland, who scored the other two goals in their Wolves thrashing, will be aiming to steal the headlines.

He has scored 48 goals in 48 home Premier League appearances, and another brace on Saturday would see him hit a landmark. The only player to hit 50 home goals in fewer than 50 appearances is Alan Shearer, who scored his 50th home goal in his 47th game.

Haaland has scored four goals in six previous appearances against Spurs in the league, but only one of those came at home, back in January 2023, which he will be eager to change.

Frank looking to build momentum

Spurs quickly put their UEFA Super Cup disappointment behind them in their opening Premier League game, with Frank getting off to a perfect start.

Prior to that win over Burnley, Spurs had not kept a clean sheet in any of their previous 13 league matches and had lost their last three home games in the top-flight.

But a convincing performance, with the highlight being Richarlison's stunning scissor kick, ensured Frank quickly ended both of those runs and kick-started their season on a high.

Now he faces the challenge of ending a different streak, as Spurs have not won their first two matches of a league campaign since 2021-22. That was also the last time a manager won his first two league games in charge of the club (Nuno Espirito Santo, then).

However, they are winless in their last 11 games against non-newly promoted sides (D2 L9), since a 1-0 win over Manchester United in February.

Spurs only won five games on the road in the Premier League last season (D2 L12), though their first two victories away from home both came in Manchester.

Frank led Brentford to a 2-1 victory at the Etihad in November 2022. Only two managers have beaten Guardiola away in the league with two clubs, and he will be looking to join Jose Mourinho (Real Madrid, Man Utd) and Antonio Conte (Chelsea, Spurs) on that list.

In order to do that, he will once again be relying on his forward players to do their jobs, with Richarlison not the only influential figure against Burnley.

Mohammed Kudus became just the second player to provide two or more assists on his Premier League debut for Tottenham, after Maddison against Brentford in August 2023.

On the opening weekend, only Pedro Neto attempted more crosses (12) than Kudus (10), while his five chances created were the joint-most, along with Burnley's Josh Cullen and Man Utd's Bruno Fernandes.

As proven in the Super Cup, though, Spurs can get goals from anywhere, with Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero responsible for scoring against Paris Saint-Germain.

The Dutchman accumulated the second-highest expected goals (xG) among Spurs players last weekend (0.6), while both he and Djed Spence, who, like Romero, has recently signed a new deal, had two shots each.

But Spurs have been dealt a blow in the pursuit of Crystal Palace star Eberechi Eze, with reports suggesting that north London rivals Arsenal have moved ahead in securing the England international's signature. 

It has been reported that a deal had been agreed between Spurs and Palace for the 27-year-old, though the Gunners have since agreed a £67.5m deal, with the player close to sealing a switch to Mikel Arteta's side. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Tijjani Reijnders

Reijnders both scored and assisted in Manchester City's 4-0 win over Wolves on his Premier League debut – no player has ever achieved this in their first two City appearances in the competition.

Reijnders could be the first player since Emmanuel Adebayor in August 2009 to score in their first two Premier League games for the club.

Against Wolves, only Nico Gonzalez (25) attempted more passes in the final third than Reijnders (22), with the Dutchman completing 90.9% of those. He also attempted the joint-most duels (14), though he completed just four.

Tottenham – Richarlison

Richarlison netted a brace in Spurs' 3-0 win over Burnley on MD1, already hitting 50% of his total for the entirety of the 2024-25 Premier League season (four in 15 games).

The Brazilian has the best minutes per goal ratio of any player who has featured across the last two Premier League seasons (a goal every 95 mins), also enjoying a 27.3% conversion rate.

He accumulated just 0.8 expected goals (xG) against Burnley, having five shots overall. Only three players had more attempts on the opening weekend than Richarlison (six), while he had the joint-most shots on target (three, level with Man Utd's Matheus Cunha).