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Preview: Madrid derby to set the tone on opening day of UCL Round of 16

Preview: Madrid derby to set the tone on opening day of UCL Round of 16

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There are a good few thrilling ties in store in the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League’s Round of 16, but none will likely be as fierce as the battle between Madrid rivals Real and Atlético.

By Neel Shelat

Draws galore in recent derbies

There has been incredibly little to separate the two Madrid giants over the last year or so. Each of the last three meetings between these two teams has ended in a 1-1 draw, while the two cup matches in early 2024 required extra time to settle each tie.

H2H – last five results

Evidently, goals have been flowing in recent Madrid derbies. In fact, neither side has managed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 clashes. Across that period, the goals per game averages out at 3.3.

Atleti out to end rotten UCL record against Real

Atlético Madrid have never won a UEFA Champions League knockout tie against their local rivals. They have come across Los Blancos four times in the competition, with all the meetings coming in a three-year stretch.

The first of these matches was the famous 2014 final when Sergio Ramos’ stoppage-time header took the game to extra time, in which Carlo Ancelotti’s side eventually ran away to register a 4-1 victory. Atléti then lost to a late Chicharito goal – the only strike across two legs – in the 2014/15 quarter-finals, before suffering even more disappointment in a penalty shoot-out defeat in the 2016 final. The record UCL champions would go on to defend their title in 2017, defeating Atlético en route in the semi-final.

Los Colchoneros also fell short in the only Madrid derby tie in the old European Cup. That was all the way back in 1959, when goals from Alfredo Di Stéfano and Ferenc Puskás decided the play-off match after a 2-2 aggregate draw in the semi-final.

Atleti did win the most recent continental meeting between these teams in the 2018 UEFA Super Cup, but they will need something special to break a nine-match winless streak at the Santiago Bernabéu if they are to replicate such a result.

Big misses in Real’s midfield

Injuries and absences have been a big talking point for Real Madrid throughout the season, and this game will be no exception. While Ancelotti’s side seem to have found a way to make do without Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão, the short-term absences of Dani Ceballos and Jude Bellingham due to a hamstring issue and suspension respectively could well prove much tougher to mask.

Following Toni Kroos’ retirement, one of Real’s biggest challenges this season has been replacing his playmaking and connecting qualities in midfield. Ceballos and Bellingham have proven critical in that respect, so the hosts could be in for a frustrating night without them.

Atléti building another head of steam

Atlético do not have any major injury issues to worry about and are only expected to miss César Azpilicueta and Koke for this game. With a near full-strength squad, they have gone unbeaten for 10 matches in their second-best run of the season after the 15-match winning streak from late 2024.

Prediction

With some serious firepower in both attacks, a score draw should be expected. The 1-1 streak could well keep going.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Champions League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, player ratings, and a new super-intuitive knockout stage bracket. Download the free app here.

Preview: Madrid derby to set the tone on opening day of UCL Round of 16

There are a good few thrilling ties in store in the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League’s Round of 16, but none will likely be as fierce as the battle between Madrid rivals Real and Atlético.

By Neel Shelat

Draws galore in recent derbies

There has been incredibly little to separate the two Madrid giants over the last year or so. Each of the last three meetings between these two teams has ended in a 1-1 draw, while the two cup matches in early 2024 required extra time to settle each tie.

H2H – last five results

Evidently, goals have been flowing in recent Madrid derbies. In fact, neither side has managed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 clashes. Across that period, the goals per game averages out at 3.3.

Atleti out to end rotten UCL record against Real

Atlético Madrid have never won a UEFA Champions League knockout tie against their local rivals. They have come across Los Blancos four times in the competition, with all the meetings coming in a three-year stretch.

The first of these matches was the famous 2014 final when Sergio Ramos’ stoppage-time header took the game to extra time, in which Carlo Ancelotti’s side eventually ran away to register a 4-1 victory. Atléti then lost to a late Chicharito goal – the only strike across two legs – in the 2014/15 quarter-finals, before suffering even more disappointment in a penalty shoot-out defeat in the 2016 final. The record UCL champions would go on to defend their title in 2017, defeating Atlético en route in the semi-final.

Los Colchoneros also fell short in the only Madrid derby tie in the old European Cup. That was all the way back in 1959, when goals from Alfredo Di Stéfano and Ferenc Puskás decided the play-off match after a 2-2 aggregate draw in the semi-final.

Atleti did win the most recent continental meeting between these teams in the 2018 UEFA Super Cup, but they will need something special to break a nine-match winless streak at the Santiago Bernabéu if they are to replicate such a result.

Big misses in Real’s midfield

Injuries and absences have been a big talking point for Real Madrid throughout the season, and this game will be no exception. While Ancelotti’s side seem to have found a way to make do without Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão, the short-term absences of Dani Ceballos and Jude Bellingham due to a hamstring issue and suspension respectively could well prove much tougher to mask.

Following Toni Kroos’ retirement, one of Real’s biggest challenges this season has been replacing his playmaking and connecting qualities in midfield. Ceballos and Bellingham have proven critical in that respect, so the hosts could be in for a frustrating night without them.

Atléti building another head of steam

Atlético do not have any major injury issues to worry about and are only expected to miss César Azpilicueta and Koke for this game. With a near full-strength squad, they have gone unbeaten for 10 matches in their second-best run of the season after the 15-match winning streak from late 2024.

Prediction

With some serious firepower in both attacks, a score draw should be expected. The 1-1 streak could well keep going.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Champions League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, player ratings, and a new super-intuitive knockout stage bracket. Download the free app here.