World Cup predictions: Spain tipped to triumph as Messi and Ronaldo aim for final shots at glory

Friday, December 5 sees the 2026 World Cup draw take place in Washington D.C.

Fans of the qualified nations, and even those of play-off hopefuls, will then be able to start plotting their routes to a possible coronation at MetLife Stadium next July.

Sixteen venues in the United States, Canada and Mexico will play host to the biggest-ever edition of the tournament, with the number of teams increasing from 32 to 48 and the tally of games upped from 64 to 104.

Six of the entrants are still to be decided, with four qualifying via the UEFA play-offs and another two via the inter-confederation playoffs.

But the favourites are set, with Lionel Messi hoping to help Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend the title. However, Lionel Scaloni's team will face fierce competition.

France, runners-up in 2022, will hope to go all the way, as will reigning European champions Spain. England and Brazil are hoping for success under former Champions League-winning coaches Thomas Tuchel and Carlo Ancelotti, too.

Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal cannot be discounted, while Norway could be dark horses after Erling Haaland's goals helped them flatten their opponents in qualifying.

Ahead of this week’s draw, we have taken a deep dive into the Opta supercomputer's initial World Cup predictions.

THE FAVOURITES

Spain (17.0%)

At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente's Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory.

La Roja swept all before them, winning six of their seven matches inside 90 minutes and only requiring extra time to eliminate hosts Germany in the quarter-finals. They scored 15 goals in the tournament – four more than anyone else.

And there has been no downturn from De la Fuente's side since. Spain are now unbeaten in their last 31 competitive games (W25 D6, excluding penalty shoot-outs), bettering the famous 30-match run they enjoyed under Vicente del Bosque between 2010 and 2013 – a streak that saw them win both the World Cup and the Euros.

It is little surprise, then, that Spain are our predictive model's early World Cup favourites, going all the way in 17.0% of tournament predictions.

If Spain are to triumph, it is likely Lamine Yamal will play a key role. Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal's 17th birthday, as he replaced Pele (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or Euros final.

Spain will be closely monitoring the progress of Rodri, with the midfielder playing just 294 minutes in the Premier League for Manchester City since tearing his anterior cruciate ligament last year. Barcelona duo Pedri and Gavi will also look to prove their fitness after injury-disrupted starts to 2025-26.

But if their key players enter the tournament in good health, Spain will be supremely confident of repeating their feat from 2008-12 of holding the Euros and World Cup trophies at the same time.

France (14.1%)

The 2026 World Cup will mark the end of an era in French football, with Didier Deschamps set to stand down from his role as Les Bleus' head coach after 14 years at the helm.

Deschamps' reign has comprised 175 games, so if they reach the first knockout round, he will have overseen 100 games more than France's next-longest serving boss (Raymond Domenech, 79).

After watching his team fall agonisingly short on penalties against Argentina in Qatar, he has another chance to become only the second coach to win multiple World Cups (after Vittorio Pozzo in 1934 and 1938).

Deschamps also lifted the trophy as a player when he was captain in 1998, and this will be Kylian Mbappe's first World Cup as France skipper.

Mbappe is closing in on Olivier Giroud's all-time mark of 57 goals for France, having netted 55 times in his 93 caps.

There is a good chance that record falls before the World Cup, but he is also chasing down Miroslav Klose's tournament high of 16 goals at World Cups, having netted 12 times in just two editions of the tournament (four in 2018, eight in 2022).

Messi (13) is one goal ahead of Mbappe, who will surely take possession of the record eventually. But the prospect of two icons duelling to end the tournament in the lead should provide absorbing viewing.

With a 14.1% chance, France are the supercomputer's second favourites, just behind Spain, who beat them 5-4 in the semi-finals of the UEFA Nations League in June.

England (11.8%)

The only other team assigned more than a one-in-10 chance of becoming world champions is England, who are out to end 60 years of hurt at major tournaments.

The Three Lions enter their first – and potentially only – tournament under Tuchel as third favourites with an 11.8% probability of lifting the trophy, having come up short in two European Championship finals under Gareth Southgate.

Tuchel's task is simple – get international football's nearly men over the line.

He could become only the third manager to win both the Champions League and the World Cup, after Marcello Lippi (Juventus, Italy) and Del Bosque (Real Madrid, Spain).

His England reign took some time to get going, but a rampant 5-0 victory in Serbia in September showcased the Three Lions' potential, and the emergence of Elliot Anderson seems to have finally ended their search for a central midfield partner for Declan Rice.

England ultimately finished UEFA qualifying Group K with eight wins – and eight clean sheets – from as many matches, becoming only the second team to win all their games in a UEFA World Cup qualifying campaign without conceding, after Yugoslavia in 1954.

Southgate's England teams were also solid at the back but rarely free-flowing; at Euro 2024, they recorded just 5.4 expected goals (xG) – Turkiye, Austria and Switzerland were among the teams to better that tally.

So, Tuchel is also expected to provide a better standard of entertainment, and he certainly has the tools to do so, with a stunning array of options to choose from, particularly in the attacking midfield positions.

There should be plenty of service for Harry Kane, who is Europe's most in-form striker, netting 24 goals in 20 matches for Bayern Munich so far this season, but there is a competitive race for the positions behind the England skipper after Tuchel suggested Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden could not both start, while Cole Palmer’s season has barely got going due to injuries.

Argentina (8.7%)

In the eyes of Argentina's supporters, Messi struggled to emerge from Diego Maradona's shadow until the 2022 World Cup.

But then, the Barcelona legend produced one of the greatest individual World Cup campaigns, scoring seven goals and assisting three, while becoming the first player to ever net in the group stage, last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final of a single edition.

Messi also led all players in Qatar for shots (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22), becoming the second player to top all three metrics at a single World Cup.

The other? Maradona when he almost single-handedly dragged his nation to the title in 1986 (30 shots, 19 open-play chances created, 53 fouls won).

Now, Messi gets the opportunity to do something even Maradona could not accomplish – win a second World Cup.

Messi has shown no signs of slowing down, helping Inter Miami reach the MLS Cup final while contributing a staggering 35 goals and providing 27 assists (including secondary assists, which are counted in MLS) this year.

The attacker already leads all players for appearances (26) and goal involvements (21, since assists were first recorded in 1966) at World Cups, while Messi’s battle to break Klose's goal record before Mbappe is an enthralling additional storyline.

Argentina dominated the CONMEBOL World Cup qualification group, finishing nine points clear of second-placed Ecuador, and last year they also retained the Copa America for the first time since 1993.

The likes of Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez have also kicked on since Qatar, and any team which has Messi has a chance of going all the way – a creditable 8.7% chance.

Germany (7.1%)

Germany are the supercomputer's fifth favourites with a 7.1% chance of winning a record-equalling fifth World Cup, which would leave them tied with Brazil.

But by the time next year's tournament rolls around, it will have been 12 years since Germany played a knockout game at a World Cup. That was when they beat Argentina in the 2014 final.

Julian Nagelsmann's side were beaten in the quarter-finals on home soil at Euro 2024, marking the first time Germany have appeared at four major tournaments (World Cup/Euros) in a row without reaching a semi-final at any of them.

Their route to this World Cup was not completely smooth, either, as they were left needing a victory over Slovakia in their final Group A game to avoid the play-offs. But they won that match by a 6-0 scoreline, with Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane among the goals.

Germany arguably played some of the best football at Euro 2024, ranking second for average possession share (62.5%) and goals scored (11), but Nagelsmann has plenty of selection dilemmas to consider.

Marc-Andre ter Stegen has lost his place as Barcelona's first-choice goalkeeper after undergoing back surgery, while Nagelsmann has tested multiple midfield pairings since Toni Kroos' retirement – Aleksandar Pavlovic partnered Leon Goretzka in their final two qualifiers.

Portugal (6.6%)

When Ronaldo swapped Manchester United for Al-Nassr after the 2022 World Cup, some may have expected it to be a case of, "out of sight, out of mind".

But the five-time Ballon d'Or winner simply cannot stop making headlines, with FIFA recently announcing Ronaldo would not serve the typical three-match ban following his red card in Portugal's defeat to the Republic of Ireland, freeing him up to play their World Cup opener.

And after Messi finally ended his wait for a World Cup win in Qatar, Portugal are assigned a 6.6% chance of giving Ronaldo his own crowning moment.

Portugal boast one of the most talented squads at the tournament. Vitinha, Joao Neves and Nuno Mendes all enjoyed spectacular 2024-25 campaigns with PSG, while Manchester-based stars Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes make up a technically gifted and highly experienced spine.

But when the tournament begins, the likelihood is that Ronaldo will hog the headlines, just as he did in Qatar in 2022 and at Euro 2024. At the former tournament, Ronaldo was dropped for a last-16 tie against Switzerland after a series of ineffective displays, and his replacement Goncalo Ramos scored a hat-trick in a 6-1 win.

Then, in Germany, Ronaldo broke down in tears after seeing a penalty saved in Portugal’s last-16 tie against Slovenia, which they eventually won on spot-kicks. Portugal went out to France at the next stage, as Ronaldo ended the tournament without a goal from 23 shots and 3.6 xG.

Like Messi, Ronaldo will appear at a record-breaking sixth edition of the World Cup, but of his eight goals in 22 games at the tournament, three have been penalties and none have come in the knockout stages.

However, this year's Nations League triumph offers hope that Roberto Martínez can get the balance right even while accommodating the 40-year-old, who is still full of confidence after scoring 84 goals in 86 Saudi Pro League games.

Fans have learned to never write Ronaldo off, and however Portugal's campaign goes, it is unlikely to be dull.

Brazil (5.6%)

Brazil are the only side to qualify for every edition of the World Cup, though the Selecao cut things a little too fine this time around, finishing fifth in CONMEBOL's qualifiers.

Ancelotti was only in charge for the final five games of their campaign, but less than eight months into his reign, he has already overseen surprise defeats to Bolivia and Japan, as well as underwhelming draws with Ecuador and Tunisia.

Next year, it will have been 24 years since Brazil last lifted the World Cup. They have only endured one previous drought of that length since first winning the tournament in 1958, between 1970 and 1994. That spell ended, of course, in the United States, and Brazil are assigned a 5.6% chance of another stateside triumph.

If Brazil are to go all the way, Ancelotti must find a way to get more out of Vinicius Junior.

Vinicius has played under five different head coaches since joining Real Madrid, and 149 of his 192 goal involvements for the club came during Ancelotti’s second spell in charge of Los Blancos.

Estevao's flying start to life with Chelsea gives Brazil another electric option out wide, though it remains to be seen whether Ancelotti will bow to pressure to recall Neymar – if he proves his fitness – for his first Selecao appearance since 2023, amid the forward’s persistent injury issues.

Brazil have disappointed in recent years, failing to get past the last eight at the two most recent World Cups and the 2024 Copa America, but if any manager can get them to perform on the big stage in a knockout tournament, it's Ancelotti.

World Cup dark horses

The Netherlands are the team to reach the most World Cup finals without ever lifting the trophy (three), and they are the eighth and final team assigned more than a 5% chance of triumphing next year, at 5.2%.

The Oranje’s run to the semi-finals of Euro 2024 – losing late on to England – was their best at any tournament since finishing third at the 2014 World Cup.

Their current side has a distinctly English influence, with four Premier League players scoring in their final World Cup qualifier versus Lithuania (4-0, Tijjani Reijnders, Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons and Donyell Malen) – the first time that has occurred for the Netherlands.

The Netherlands may lack the star power of the other main favourites and are slipping under the radar with many, but the supercomputer thinks they are worthy of consideration.

But for many, the dark horses tag is expected to fall on Norway, who stormed through a qualifying group that included Italy.

Norway will be the team nobody wishes to draw from Pot 3, having steamrolled their way through the qualifiers with a perfect eight wins and 37 goals – the most of any team. 

Haaland struck 16 of those goals, matching Robert Lewandowski's 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign. Lewandowski scored his tally in 10 games, two more than Haaland.

Norway's chances are ranked at 2.3%, which is just marginally higher than next-best Colombia (2.0%).

Colombia deserve their lofty status in our projections, as they come into the tournament off the back of a run to the final of the 2024 Copa America, having outscored all other teams at that edition with 12 goals.

Those teams round out the top 10 favourites, with Belgium next with a 1.9% probability. Many members of the Red Devils' 'Golden Generation' remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them.

Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, now team-mates at Napoli, and Thibaut Courtois will all feature at a fourth edition of the World Cup – no player has ever represented Belgium at more (Enzo Scifo also four).

Croatia are another team whose best days may be behind them but can never be ruled out. Semi-finalists in 2018 and 2022, they are assigned a 1.1% chance of glory – lower than Mexico (1.3%) and Uruguay (1.7%).

Inspirational captain Luka Modric is hoping to appear at his fifth World Cup at the age of 40, and no team will want to see Croatia drawn into their group from Pot 2.

Semi-finalists in 2022, Morocco (1.1%) also have more than a 1% chance of glory, with Ecuador triumphing one in a hundred times. 

The co-hosts

France became the sixth team to win the World Cup as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then.

Even the most ardent supporters of the United States, Mexico or Canada would struggle to make the case for a home triumph in 2026, but with a little luck in the draw, you never know.

Eleven of the tournament's venues are in the United States, and Mauricio Pochettino's side are assigned a 0.9% chance of going all the way. They will be placed in Group D, with two of their first-round games taking place in Los Angeles and the other in Seattle.

The USMNT appointed Pochettino after a humiliating group-stage exit as Copa America hosts last year, and things did not immediately improve as the Argentine lost five of his first 10 matches at the helm.

Pochettino's side did reach the final of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, despite star names including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Folarin Balogun and Antonee Robinson missing the tournament.

Along with the Gold Cup run, a 5-1 win over Uruguay last time out put Pochettino's critics on notice, and the USA should feel good about their chances of being competitive in the knockout stages.

Mexico, the team that defeated the USA in the Gold Cup final, are the host nation viewed as most likely to shock the world and lift the trophy, with a 1.3% probability.  

It remains to be seen how the introduction of a round of 32 will affect El Tri, who lost in the round of 16 at seven consecutive World Cups before suffering a group-stage exit in Qatar.

Javier Aguirre's team will play in the tournament's opening match, in Mexico City on June 11, but they failed to win any of their final six games in 2025 (D3 L3) – all of them friendlies – with five of those coming against teams lower than them in the FIFA World Rankings.

Forty-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is hoping to earn a historic call-up. He is the third player – alongside Messi and Ronaldo – able to appear at an unprecedented sixth edition of the World Cup and was selected for the Gold Cup, so watch this space.

Canada are deemed the least likely of the host nations to go all the way, winning the competition in just 0.4% of our simulations, though they are only a year removed from a historic tournament run.

Mere weeks into Jesse Marsch's reign, Canada reached the semi-finals on their Copa America debut, losing 2-0 to eventual winners Argentina. Only a penalty shoot-out denied them a bronze medal, too, as they lost to Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay in the third-place play-off.

Play-off hopefuls

There are also six teams still to be decided in March's play-offs. There is currently a combined 3.7% chance of any of those sides going all the way, with Italy surely the most likely candidates if they can end their World Cup exile.

When the tournament begins, it will have been 20 years since the Azzurri played a knockout match at the World Cup – with their most recent such game being the 2006 final.

They must get past Northern Ireland and potentially Wales to make it, with both of those sides hoping to join fellow home nations England and Scotland.

Sweden (in 1958) and Czechia (in 1934 and 1962) have both been World Cup finalists previously (the latter as Czechoslovakia) but could still miss the tournament, as could former European champions Denmark.

If previous World Cups are anything to go by, shocks and surprises should be a given, so all those teams will still be dreaming of a deep run.