Women's Super League predictions: Can Arsenal derail Chelsea's fast start?

Tensions will be high in the capital this weekend as the Women's Super League fixtures include two crucial London derbies.

The first sees Champions League holders Arsenal host reigning WSL champions Chelsea in a massive clash at the Emirates Stadium.

That will be one of two games taking place on Saturday as Manchester United look to continue their unbeaten start in the league against Aston Villa.

The other London derby sees Tottenham take on London City Lionesses at the Copperjax Community Stadium.

Both West Ham and Liverpool will be hoping to register their first points of the season when they host Leicester City and Brighton, respectively, while the final game of MD8 sees Manchester City travel to Everton.

Here is how the Opta supercomputer predicts this weekend's action will unfold.

ARSENAL V CHELSEA

Arsenal (10 wins) vs Chelsea (13 wins) is the most played fixture in WSL history (29 meetings) and is one of just two to see both sides win 10+ times (also Arsenal vs Man City).

Meanwhile, only Arsenal vs Liverpool (88) has seen more goals scored than the Gunners (43) vs the Blues (44 – 87 total).

Following their win against the Lionesses last time out, Chelsea remain unbeaten in each of their last 32 WSL games (W28 D4) and could equal the longest unbeaten run in the competition's history, set by the Blues themselves between February 2019 and January 2021 (W26 D7) this weekend.

But Arsenal's home form has been imperious. The Gunners have lost just one of their last 24 home matches in the WSL (W20 D3), though that defeat did come against Chelsea (2-1 loss) in October last year.

But the supercomputer predicts a Chelsea win at the Emirates, giving the Blues a 48.2% chance of victory.

Arsenal won 27.7% of the pre-match simulations, while they clinched a draw in 24.1% of them.

It could also be a special outing for Mille Bright. She is set to equal Jordan Nobbs (210) for the most appearances made in WSL history. The Blues captain already holds the record for most starts (197) and most wins (142) in the competition.  

MANCHESTER UNITED V ASTON VILLA

United could finish MD8 as the league leaders if both Chelsea and Man City drop points in their fixtures.

The Red Devils are the leading goalscorers so far in the 2025-26 WSL campaign (19) and boast the best conversion rate of any side (19.6%) – that is currently the most efficient rate by a side in a single campaign in the top-flight (Arsenal in 2018-19 – 19.0%).  

United are unbeaten in each of their seven matches in the league this season (W5 D2) and could avoid defeat across their opening eight games of a campaign for just the second time, after also doing so in 2020-21 (unbeaten in first 10).

However, Villa have avoided defeat in their last four WSL matches, though three of these have been draws.

The visitors will have to watch out for Ella Toone and Jess Park, who have combined for three goals in the WSL this season, the most of any pair of team-mates.

The supercomputer has United as overwhelming favourites in this match, giving them a 74% chance of success. Villa, by contrast, have been given a 10.8% probability of winning, while the likelihood of a draw sits at 15.2%.

LONDON CITY LIONESSES V TOTTENHAM

Unlike the derby at the Emirates, the supercomputer predicts a close contest between London City and Spurs.

The hosts have been given a 39.4% chance of victory to Spurs' 34%, while a draw was the outcome in 26.6% of the pre-match simulations.

Spurs have won eight of their last 10 league games against newly promoted opposition (L2), winning four in a row since a 2-1 away defeat at Liverpool in March 2023.

They have also won two of their three WSL away games under manager Martin Ho (L1), as many victories as across their previous 16 league matches on the road (D8 L6). 

Only Villa (one) have conceded fewer goals than Spurs (two) away from home this season, so it will take a lot to breach their defence.

This will be the third meeting between London City and Spurs in all competitions, with the Lionesses losing the previous two by an aggregate score of 0-9, most recently losing 0-5 in the fourth round of the 2022-23 FA Cup.

Nikita Parris, who could become the fifth player to make 200+ appearances in the WSL and the first forward to do so, will be hoping to use her experience to the Lionesses' advantage and extend their home winning streak to three games.

WEST HAM V LEICESTER CITY

West Ham have lost their last nine WSL games and could record just the fifth streak of 10+ consecutive defeats by a side in the competition (Yeovil Town x2, Doncaster Rovers Belles and Leicester City).

They have also both conceded the most goals (18) and netted the fewest strikes in the WSL this season (two). Indeed, it is the worst goal difference of any side after seven games across each of the last three campaigns (-16).

However, they will take some comfort in knowing Leicester have failed to win each of their last 19 away matches in the WSL (D6 L13) and could equal the longest ever winless run away from home by any side in the competition (Yeovil - 20).

The Foxes are winless in their last five WSL games, including a 4-1 loss at home to Arsenal last time out.

So, the supercomputer has backed West Ham to register their first points of the season, giving them a 43.7% chance of victory.

Leicester, meanwhile, were the victors in 29.5% of the pre-match simulations and salvaged a draw in 26.8% of them.

LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON

Like West Ham, the supercomputer also predicts that Liverpool will get their first win of the season when they face Brighton.

The Reds' win probability comes in at 47.1% to the Seagulls' 26.6%, while the likelihood of a draw is 26.3%.

Liverpool have a good history against Brighton, and have won each of their last five WSL games against them. A victory on Sunday would set a new club record for their longest winning streak against an opponent in the competition.

Brighton won on their first trip to face Liverpool in the WSL in January 2019, but are one of two sides to lose on each of their visits to face the Reds in the competition since they were promoted back in 2022 (L3, also West Ham).

Gareth Taylor has lost all six of his games in charge of Liverpool in the WSL, and only three managers in WSL history have had a longer losing start to a managerial tenure with a club: Emma Coates with Doncaster in 2016 (12), Jonathan Morgan with Leicester in 2021 (eight) and Jamie Sherwood with Yeovil in 2017 (seven).

EVERTON V MANCHESTER CITY

Man City have won six of their opening seven WSL matches this season (lost to Chelsea on the opening day), with the Citizens only recording more victories in one of their 12 previous campaigns in the competition (seven in 2017-18).

And Andree Jeglertz is just the fourth manager to pick up 18+ points from their first seven matches in the competition after Sonia Bompastor (P7 W7), Jonas Eidevall and Renee Slegers (both P7 W6).  

As a WSL club, City have won 26 of their 28 matches against Everton in all competitions, more than against any other opponent in that time (D1 L1).   

So, the Toffees will be desperate for Martina Fernandez to continue her good form on Sunday.

After failing to manage a single goal contribution in her first 18 WSL appearances, Fernandez provided two assists last time out against Villa. In doing so, she became the youngest Spaniard to provide an assist in the competition (21y 32d),

The supercomputer, however, predicts a routine win for City, giving them a 70.7% chance of victory; Everton have been handed a 13% chance of winning all three points and 16.3% of clinching a draw.