The Numbers Game: Villa target 10th straight win to prove title credentials

A slow start to Aston Villa's season led some to question boss Unai Emery, but as it turns out, reports of their demise were greatly exaggerated.

Having won nine straight matches in all competitions – including six in the Premier League – Villa enter the festive period within three points of title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City.

The Opta supercomputer currently assigns Unai Emery's men a 5.8% chance of a stunning title success, compared to Arsenal's 65.5% probability and the 26.9% hope assigned to Pep Guardiola's side.

They face Manchester United on Sunday, with the Red Devils coming off the back of a thrilling 4-4 draw with Bournemouth on Monday.

Ruben Amorim's side squandered three separate leads in that game and, if not for Senne Lammens denying David Brooks twice in stoppage time, could even have lost it.

They have seen Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo depart for the Africa Cup of Nations since that thriller, and having tinkered with a more flexible shape against the Cherries, Amorim could opt to deviate from his usual 3-4-3 system entirely.

Ahead of the game, we dive into the Opta data to highlight the key players and storylines to watch.

What's expected? 

Villa are the Opta supercomputer's firm favourites with a 57.2% win probability, compared to just 20.6% for United – the remaining 22.2% of pre-match simulations finished level.

Though United are underdogs on Sunday, they can point to an exceptional record at Villa Park and against the Villans in general.

United have won 41 Premier League games against Villa, with 18 of those victories coming at Villa Park. 

Only the Red Devils themselves – against Everton – have beaten a single opponent more often both overall and away from home in Premier League history (42 wins overall, 19 away).

United have also won their last two away Premier League matches, last winning three in a row in February 2024. 

The Red Devils have netted at least twice in each of their last five matches on the road, last doing so in more consecutively between June and December 2020 (11), under Ole Gunnar Solksjaer.

Villa have won just one of their last 26 Premier League home games against Manchester United (nine draws, 16 defeats), with that triumph coming in Emery's first match at the helm in November 2022 (3-1).

But they have made Villa Park a true fortress under Emery, winning their last nine home matches in all competitions. 

They have already had one run of 10 straight home wins under Emery, from March to September 2023, and the Spaniard could become just the second Villans manager to have two separate runs of 10 home victories in a row, after George Ramsay (five different streaks between 1888 and 1905).

Can sharp-shooting Villa keep overperformance going?

Villa are flying high in the Premier League and are firmly on course to progress in the Europa League, with last week's 3-2 victory at West Ham being their ninth in a row in all competitions. But questions persist about the sustainability of their results.

Indeed, Villa are a lowly 15th in Opta's Premier League expected points table with 17.7 xPTS, barely more than half their actual points tally (33).

They have overperformed their expected goals figures by +7.9, netting 25 times from 17.1 xG in the Premier League this season – that latter figure is only the 15th-best in the division.

Only Tottenham (+9.7) can boast a larger overperformance, while Villa's average xG value per shot is 0.09 – the joint-lowest in the division alongside Sunderland.

Villa have also conceded 4.9 goals fewer than anticipated based on the expected goals against figures they have given up, shipping 17 goals from 21.9 xGA. 

The natural conclusion to draw from the data would be that Villa are earning more points than expected based on their underlying metrics, and it is more likely than not that their results will dip at some stage.

But if Villa continue to defy the statistics, neither Emery nor their fans will care one bit. Villa's overperformance is thanks in large part to the fact they have scored 10 goals from outside the box in the Premier League this season.

As well as being a league-high tally, that is also more than all but four teams managed across the entirety of the 2024-25 campaign – Man City (14), Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea (all 11) were the only sides to break double figures last term.

United gave up five shots from outside their area against Bournemouth, one of which was a Marcus Tavernier free-kick that fizzed beyond Lammens. If the likes of Morgan Rogers, John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Emiliano Buendia can find space to pull the trigger from range on Sunday, the United goalkeeper may have work to do.

Amorim to reconfigure plans without AFCON duo?

While Noussair Mazraoui had already linked up with Morocco's AFCON squad ahead of the Bournemouth game, Amorim was able to call upon Mbeumo and Amad before they departed to participate in the tournament.  

Both players will be sorely missed over the festive period. Mbeumo's six Premier League goals are the most of any United player, while Amad's 12 carries resulting in chances created are second only to Jeremy Doku's 18 this season.

In the build-up to Monday's game, reports suggested Amorim had been drilling his players to play a new system with a four-man backline, having never previously deviated from his favoured three-man defence as United boss.

With Luke Shaw, Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro all starting against the Cherries, United's system appeared to remain the same. Amad pushed far higher than opposite wing-back Diogo Dalot to alter their usual shape.

It remains to be seen whether Amorim will make a more definite change to his system for United's upcoming games, but it is likely Matheus Cunha will take on an even bigger role, with two of their other key ball carriers absent. 

The Brazilian, who scored just his second Premier League goal for United last time out, has fired off 16 shots across his last two appearances.

Cunha leads all players in the Premier League for shot-ending carries this season (18), also tallying six that ended with a chance created. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Aston Villa – Morgan Rogers

Rogers has scored more goals from outside the area than any other player in the Premier League this season, taking his tally to three with his spectacular, dipping winner against West Ham.

Rogers has now been involved in eight goals in his last 11 Premier League games (five goals, three assists). 

However, each of his last six goal involvements have come away from home.

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

Fernandes scored United's third goal against Bournemouth with a stunning free-kick, also laying on an assist.

He has now scored and assisted a goal in back-to-back Premier League matches – the only player to do so in three consecutive games for United is Ryan Giggs in April 2003.

And should Fernandes assist a goal here, he will make a piece of Premier League history. 

No player has ever assisted in six consecutive away games in the competition, with the Portugal star currently on a five-match streak.