Women's Super League predictions: Can Chelsea start their title defence on a high?

The Women's Super League is back with a bang for the new campaign, and with big changes in the off-season, it promises more intrigue than ever.

Sonia Bompastor made the ideal start to life at Chelsea by winning the title in her first season, but can she follow that up in her second?

Manchester City, under new management, and Champions League winners Arsenal will hope to have something to say about that.

Chelsea and City face off in a blockbuster opening match of the season on Friday, with Andree Jeglertz dealt a tough test for his first match in charge, while Arsenal host newly promoted London City Lionesses, who have made big signings in the hopes of staying in the top flight.

Manchester United will be keen to start strong against Leicester City to keep those at the top under pressure, while Gareth Taylor is also back in the WSL with Liverpool, with a Merseyside derby up first for him.

But who does the Opta supercomputer expect to start 2025-26 with three points?

CHELSEA V MANCHESTER CITY

The 2025-26 season will begin with a standout clash between two expected title contenders as Chelsea host Man City at Stamford Bridge on Friday.

Last season, City recorded their worst points-per-game rate in a WSL season (2.0 – 43 from 22) since their first campaign in the competition back in 2014 (1.4).

However, they are now under the new management of Jeglertz, and they will be hoping to deal Chelsea – who went unbeaten in 2024-25 – an early blow, though it will be no easy feat.

The sides became the first two WSL teams to meet five times in a single campaign across all competitions last term, with Chelsea winning four of those (L1). The Blues have also won six of their last seven home matches against City (L1).

Indeed, the Citizens have won just one of their four WSL games against Chelsea across the last two seasons (D1 L2), though that victory did come away from home in February last year (1-0).

That is Chelsea's only home loss across their last 48 home league games (W45 D2), with Bompastor still yet to suffer a defeat on home soil in the WSL.

And she is not expected to end that run on Friday, with Chelsea firm favourites for a win with the Opta supercomputer at 61.3%. City's hopes of an upset sit at 18.3%, while they only have a further 20.4% chance of taking a point.

ARSENAL V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

Saturday will be a historic day for the London City Lionesses as they become the 20th different side to compete in the WSL, starting with a derby at last season's runners-up Arsenal.

Each of the last nine debuting teams have failed to win their first game in the competition, and London City are not expected to put an end to that run, with the live predictive model giving them just a 3.9% win likelihood.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are overwhelming favourites for victory at 88.9%, which should be no surprise given they are unbeaten in their last 27 WSL games against newly promoted opposition (W24 D3), conceding just once across their last 13 such matches.

And only Man Utd (six games – 67%) have a better win-rate in their opening game of a WSL season than Arsenal, who have won nine of their 15 MD1 fixtures (60% - D4 L2).

Though London City have lost all five of their meetings with Arsenal since their independent breakaway, there is still some hope, as Arsenal have not won their opener in either of the last two campaigns (a 1-0 loss to Liverpool in 2023-24 and a 2-2 draw v Man City in 2024-25).

TOTTENHAM V WEST HAM

Tottenham are looking to put a disappointing 2024-25, in which they finished 11th, behind them with a fast start to the new season. They begin with a London derby against West Ham on Sunday.

After failing to win any of their last 10 matches last term, Martin Ho will be keen to make a winning start, and history could be on his side as Spurs have won their season opener in three of the last four WSL campaigns (L1), including a 4-0 home win over Crystal Palace last season.

West Ham, though, are looking to win back-to-back WSL games against Spurs for the first time after a 2-0 win in March this year, and they are given a 26.7% chance of doing so.

Spurs won 46.9% of the simulations, which perhaps is not a surprise given that the Hammers earned just five points on the road in the WSL in 2024-25, though four of those came in their final three such matches (W1 D1 L1).

And Shekiera Martinez will be keen to pick up where she left off last term. Only joint-Golden Boot winners Alessia Russo and Khadija Shaw (both 12) netted more goals than the German's 10, a haul she managed in just 12 matches.

MANCHESTER UNITED V LEICESTER CITY

After a third-place finish last season, United are given an outside chance of lifting the trophy this season and are expected to kick off their season with a win over managerless Leicester City.

United's chances of a win on Sunday sit at 80.1% with the supercomputer, with Leicester's hopes of a strong start a lowly 7.7%. A draw is only slightly more likely at 12.2%.

The Red Devils have never lost to Leicester, going unbeaten in eight WSL meetings (W7 D1), while they have also won their opening fixture in each of the last four league campaigns under Marc Skinner.

For Leicester, the problems are mounting already. Amandine Miquel departed at the end of August, with no replacement named as yet. They are winless in 16 WSL away games (D5 L11) and have lost their last three meetings with United in the league without scoring.

A bad omen when considering that United boasted one of the best defences in the WSL last season, conceding just 16 goals, while Phallon Tullis-Joyce kept the joint-most clean sheets in the competition (13 – level with Hannah Hampton).

LIVERPOOL V EVERTON

Sunday's action will also include a Merseyside derby, with Taylor preparing to take charge of Liverpool for the first time against Everton.

Taylor has won eight of his nine previous WSL meetings with Everton (L1), and is expected to add to that run, with the Reds winning 50.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

But Liverpool are winless in their last seven top-flight meetings with Everton (D2 L5) and are looking to avoid three straight losses to their derby rivals for just the second time (after July 2011-August 2012).

Everton's chances of a win, meanwhile, are 24.6%. They have won just two of their 12 opening fixtures (D2 L8), suffering more defeats on MD1 than any other side in the competition.

One thing is for sure: the Toffees will have to keep Marie-Therese Hobinger quiet if they want to get a result. Only Katie McCabe (51) created more chances than the Austrian's 47 last season, which is a record by a Liverpool player in a single WSL campaign.

BRIGHTON V ASTON VILLA

Brighton, who were the surprise package at the start of last season, kick off against Aston Villa, following their best WSL season. They won their most matches in a single campaign in 2024-25 (eight) and recorded their highest finish (fifth), but they won just one of their final six WSL home matches (D3 L2).

However, even though they have won just one of their five home meetings with Villa in the competition (L4), Brighton are the favourites with a 43.1% likelihood of a win on Sunday.

Villa should not be written off, though – after a tough start to 2024-25, they finished strongly, ending the campaign on a five-match winning streak, their longest ever run in the competition.

The Villans have also won each of their last three top-flight away games. Though they won just 30.1% of the pre-match simulations, they will look to overturn the odds after winning four of their last five games against Brighton (L1).

And they have Rachel Daly on their side; she netted more goals against the Seagulls than any other opponent in the league last term (three).