The Numbers Game: Chelsea's young guns aim for fourth straight win versus struggling Ajax

Less than a month ago, Enzo Maresca looked to be under real pressure at Chelsea, with back-to-back Premier League defeats against Manchester United and Brighton following on the heels of a Champions League loss at Bayern Munich.

But a run of three consecutive victories either side of the international break have brightened the mood at Stamford Bridge, ahead of Wednesday's meeting with Ajax.

Having responded to their defeat in Bavaria by overcoming Benfica on the second matchday of the league phase, Chelsea are looking up in the Champions League standings.

Ajax, meanwhile, are 35th in the 36-team table after back-to-back defeats, with only Kazakh minnows Kairat sitting below John Heitinga's team.

Will Chelsea take advantage of the struggles of the Eredivisie giants to boost their push for a top eight finish? We dive into the Opta data to preview Wednesday's game.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea strong favourites ahead of the game, with 10,000 data-led simulations leading to the Blues being assigned a 72.5% chance of victory.

Ajax's win probability stands at a lowly 11.7%. Only Olympiacos (9.9% at Barcelona) and Club Brugge (10.5% at Bayern Munich) are given a lower probability of a win on matchday three, while 15.8% of simulations finished level.

With a 5% chance of lifting the trophy for a third time, Chelsea are the model's eighth favourites to win the Champions League, making the last 16 in 79% of projections. 

Ajax only get that far in 2.7% of simulations, while they fail to even make the knockout-stage play-offs in 87.5% of our tournament predictions.

This will be the third European meeting between Chelsea and Ajax, who previously faced off twice in the group stage of the 2019-20 Champions League. 

Chelsea – then managed by Frank Lampard – won 1-0 in Amsterdam, before recovering from 4-1 down to earn a 4-4 draw in the reverse fixture in West London, with Ajax seeing Daley Blind and Joel Veltman sent off.

Ajax are winless in their last 11 major European matches against English teams (two draws, nine defeats) since a 1-0 win over Tottenham in April 2019, in a Champions League semi-final tie that they memorably lost due to a Lucas Moura hat-trick in the second leg.

The Eredivisie side have failed to score a single goal in their last five such games, since a Mohammed Kudus strike in a 2-1 loss to Liverpool at Anfield, in September 2022.

Maresca's young side improving, but forward options depleted 

Chelsea earned their third straight victory across all competitions on Saturday, overcoming a slow start to beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 and bring the curtain down on Ange Postecoglou's short-lived reign at the City Ground.

Josh Acheampong, Pedro Neto and Reece James were on target in the second half of that match, with 19-year-old Acheampong becoming the second teenager to score for Chelsea in the Premier League this season, following Estevao's stoppage-time winner against Liverpool.

That made them the first team to have multiple teenage scorers in the Premier League this campaign, and Maresca will hope for further signs of development from his young team here.

Twenty-eight-year-old Tosin Adarabioyo is the oldest player to be registered in Chelsea's Champions League squad, so they are set to become just the third English team to go three or more games in the competition without giving a single minute to a player in their 30s, after Liverpool in 2002-03 and Tottenham in 2016-17 (both six games in a row).

But Chelsea may need something from 18-year-old Estevao, 21-year-old Alejandro Garnacho, 25-year-old Neto or even 19-year-old frontman Marc Guiu after seeing their forward options depleted.

While Cole Palmer is still out injured, Joao Pedro will also miss Wednesday's game, as he serves a one-game European suspension following his sending off against Benfica.

One of Joao Pedro's six previous major European goals was netted against Ajax, for Brighton in the UEFA Europa League in September 2023.

Heitinga seeks to avoid unwanted record

Ajax are another club known for placing an emphasis on youth, and in their last Champions League game, they made Jorthy Mokio their second-youngest debutant in the competition, at the age of 17 years and 214 days. 

Mokio also became the 52nd teenager to appear for Ajax in the Champions League, the most of any club, playing under another man who made his breakthrough for the Amsterdam side at a young age – John Heitinga.

Heitinga, who broke into Ajax's team as a 17-year-old in 2001 before returning as head coach during the off-season, is already under pressure following a poor start both domestically and on the continent. 

Saturday's 2-0 loss to AZ Alkmaar left Ajax fourth in the Eredivisie and already nine points adrift of the summit, while Champions League losses to Inter (0-2) and Marseille (0-4) have put their hopes of reaching the knockout stages under severe threat.

Heitinga could make an unwanted piece of Champions League history on Wednesday, as he could become the first man to lose his first three games in the competition both as a player and a manager with a single club.

He is one of four men to lose his first two games in both roles, alongside Mark van Bommel at PSV, Ivan Leko at Club Brugge and Krunoslav Jurcic at Dinamo Zagreb.

And after losing their last three games in the 2024-25 edition of the Europa League, Ajax are on a five-match losing run in major European competitions. They last lost six in a row between April 1988 and September 1989.

This will be the seventh time that Chelsea have faced a team who are on a five-game losing run in Europe, and the Blues have won on the previous six occasions, by an aggregate score of 14-0.

The only English teams to lose against a side on such a run are Manchester City in 1970, to Linfield in the Cup Winners' Cup, and Manchester United in 2019, against Astana in the Europa League.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Chelsea – Moises Caicedo 

It remains to be seen whether Enzo Fernandez will feature on Wednesday after he missed the win over Forest with a minor injury, but regardless of the Argentine's presence, Caicedo should boss the midfield battle.

Only two players – Eintracht Frankfurt's Nathaniel Brown (11) and Copenhagen's Lukas Lerager (10) – have made more tackles in this season's Champions League than Caicedo (nine).

Caicedo made more tackles than any other player across matchweek two, with seven in the win over Benfica.

Ajax – Wout Weghorst

Weghorst, who missed Ajax's last Champions League game against Marseille, has scored five goals in eight Eredivisie appearances this season.

The towering striker has won 28 of the 42 aerial duels he has contested in the Dutch top flight this term, so he could be primed to take advantage of Chelsea's issues at centre-back, where they are still without long-term absentees Levi Colwill and Benoit Badiashile.