The Numbers Game: Chelsea aim to pile more pressure on Man Utd boss Amorim

Ruben Amorim needs something to start going his way at Manchester United, and he needs it to happen soon.

Amorim is refusing to stray away from his principles, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how those principles can bring the improvement that United fans crave.

With the 2025-26 season just over a month old, United have lost two of their four Premier League matches and have been dumped out of the EFL Cup by Grimsby Town.

Their only win has come at home against Burnley, and even after a dominant performance, it required a last-gasp Bruno Fernandes penalty to secure a 3-2 victory.

United were no match for Manchester City last time out, going down 3-0 at the Etihad Stadium, and with no EFL Cup or European ties to focus on, Amorim's team have had the week to reflect on where it went wrong.

Next up is a home meeting with Chelsea, who were pegged back to a 2-2 draw by Brentford in their last Premier League outing.

The Blues were in UEFA Champions League action on Wednesday, going down 3-1 to Bayern Munich. However, they still go into Saturday's clash at Old Trafford as favourites.

Here, we delve into the key Opta numbers.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer is making Chelsea out to be the favourites, with the Blues having triumphed in 46.8% of the model's 10,000 data-led simulations.

United are handed a win probability of 28.7%.

However, United are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D7) since a 0-1 defeat in May 2013.

In fact, Chelsea's win rate of 18% at Old Trafford in the Premier League (6/33) is their lowest away to any side they have visited 10+ times in the competition.

After their 1-0 win in May, Chelsea are looking for successive league victories over United for the first time since winning three in a row from November 2009 to March 2011 under Carlo Ancelotti.

The Blues' two wins in their last three league games versus the Red Devils (D1) are as many as their previous 17 beforehand (W2 D9 L6).

And while a draw only comes in at 24.5%, Chelsea vs United is actually the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, finishing level 27 times.

Fourteen of those draws have come at Old Trafford, with Everton against Tottenham at Goodison Park the only fixture at a specific venue to be drawn more often in the competition (17).

Can Amorim relieve the pressure?

Since matchday 12 of last season, which was when Amorim first took charge of United, no ever-present Premier League team have performed worse than the Red Devils (31 points from 31 games, -13 goal difference) in the division.

Indeed, Sunday's loss to Man City saw United's chances of securing Champions League qualification fall to 3.3%, according to Opta's supercomputer. The same model forecasts the probability of United going down at 12.3%.

With just four points from four games (W1 D1 L2), this is United's poorest start to a league season since 1992-93, when they also had four points from their opening four matches.

United, then, have plenty to prove. And they can take solace from the fact that they have won two of their last three home Premier League matches (L1), as many as in their previous 11 at Old Trafford combined (W2 D2 L7).

They are looking for consecutive home league victories within the same season and under the same manager for the first time since December 2023 under Erik ten Hag.

And even though they only have four points from the 12 on offer so far, the underlying metrics do paint a brighter picture.

Despite scoring only five times, United have had 94 shots in their last four home Premier League games, attempting at least 20 in every game. They last had 20+ shots in more consecutive league games at Old Trafford between March and September 2012 (eight in a row).

Only Man City (8.5) have a higher expected goals (xG) total than United (8.3) in the Premier League this season, though that figure does include two penalties.

Defensively, however, it is not a pretty picture. Only Burnley (9.4), Aston Villa (7.4) and Wolves (7.2) have a higher xG against than Amorim's side (6.9) in the Premier League this season. His system continues to be exposed, with United often overrun in midfield.

United's focus in the transfer market was on reshaping their attack, with Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Holjund departing, and Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko coming in.

Mbeumo, who has netted twice across all competitions, has a good record against Chelsea.

The former Brentford forward has been involved in six goals in seven Premier League appearances against the Blues (three goals, three assists), although all of these goal involvements came at Stamford Bridge.

It is the joint-most goals and assists against a single opponent, with none coming on home soil by any player in Premier League history. 

However, Sesko has so far looked somewhat short of the levels required as he aims to adapt following a couple of seasons in the Bundesliga. Cunha, meanwhile, has had more shots on target without scoring than any other player in the Premier League so far this term (five).

Palmer back fit and firing

Chelsea could have, temporarily, gone top of the Premier League had they held on against Brentford, but instead their scorecard stands at two wins and two draws from their opening four outings.

Enzo Maresca's team welcomed back Cole Palmer from injury last week, and he made an instant impact against the Bees. The playmaker swept home just five minutes after coming on from the bench, bringing up his 50th club goal in the process (44 for Chelsea, six for Man City).

That was Palmer's first open-play goal in the league since he scored against Bournemouth in January, though the England international was the driving force in Chelsea's successes in both the Conference League and Club World Cup.

Despite only playing 34 minutes plus stoppage time against Brentford, Palmer had five shots – at least three more than any other Chelsea player in the game.

And he carried that form into the clash with Bayern, too, scoring a fantastic goal in the first half and very nearly doubling up late in the second, only to see an effort disallowed for offside.

Palmer has now made 100 appearances for Chelsea and has been directly involved in 73 goals (45 goals, 28 assists) for the club. Since he made his debut for Chelsea in September 2023, only Mohamed Salah (97) and Erling Haaland (85) have more goals and assists in all competitions among Premier League players.

It will, of course, be a hometown return for Palmer, who in spite of missing two of Chelsea's five games across all competitions this season, ranks fourth in their squad for open-play shot-ending sequences (19), with Pedro Neto (21), Enzo Fernandez (22) and Moises Caicedo (23) ahead of him.

Palmer, though, is not Chelsea's only threat. Liam Delap, a former United target, may be out injured, but Joao Pedro has made a strong start following his £60m switch from Brighton, scoring twice and providing three assists.

The Brazilian has also scored three goals in his five games against United in the competition – against no side has he scored more.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

There is a milestone appearance coming up for Fernandes, who is also on the brink of a landmark goal.

Should he play, then Fernandes will make his 200th Premier League appearance, becoming the 28th player to reach that milestone for United. He has recorded 51 assists for the Red Devils, with only David Beckham making more in his first 200 for the club (62). The 31-year-old needs just one more goal to bring up 100 in a United shirt, too.

The Portugal star is leading the Premier League this season for chances created (14), with a division-topping 10 of those coming from open play. However, he is yet to provide an assist.

Chelsea – Alejandro Garnacho

Part of Amorim's 'bomb squad' throughout pre-season, Garnacho eventually got his desired move away from United late in the transfer window, as he headed to Chelsea in a deal worth a reported £40m.

After capping off the 2023-24 campaign by becoming the third teenager to score an FA Cup final goal for United (after Norman Whiteside and Cristiano Ronaldo), Garnacho started last season by being the youngest player to score in the Community Shield since Cesc Fabregas for Arsenal against Chelsea in 2005.

Yet that was an early high mark in a season that swiftly tailed off. Of the players to have 10+ big chances in the Premier League last term, Garnacho had the second-worst conversion rate of such opportunities (12.5%), ranking above only Southampton's Cameron Archer (9.1%).

All that being said, Garnacho nevertheless ranked third in United's squad for league goal involvements (eight), and he will be relishing the chance to do the damage against his former club.