The Numbers Game: All eyes on Slot and Salah ahead of Liverpool's clash with Brighton

After a morale-boosting win over Inter in the Champions League on Tuesday, Liverpool are aiming to transfer that good feeling over to the Premier League.

Dominik Szoboszlai's 88th-minute penalty was enough for victory at San Siro, though the Reds' European triumph was not the talk of the town at full-time.

Liverpool's win was overshadowed by the situation regarding Mohamed Salah, whose explosive outburst after last week's 3-3 draw with Leeds United saw him dropped from the squad for the trip to Milan.

Arne Slot remained tight-lipped, but said conversations would be had about Salah's potential involvement for this weekend's league clash with Brighton at Anfield.

The Reds sit level on points with the Seagulls but two places below them, and know a victory could propel them back into the top-four picture. 

But Brighton have Champions League ambitions of their own and will want to return to winning ways in the top flight, after following up a four-game unbeaten run in the division with a defeat to Aston Villa and a draw with West Ham. 

Here, with the help of Opta data, we have a look at which way this intriguing contest may go. 

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and Liverpool are expected to return to winning ways on Merseyside, having failed to register a home league win since a 2-0 triumph over Aston Villa on November 1.

Slot's team are handed a 51.3% probability of claiming all three points, compared to Brighton's 23.9%. The likelihood of a draw is given a 24.7% chance of happening.

And fortune has often favoured Liverpool in this fixture, especially when welcoming the Seagulls to Anfield in the top flight.

Indeed, Liverpool have lost just one of their eight Premier League home games against Brighton (W5 D2), though it was the only other time they have faced them as the competition's reigning champions (0-1 in February 2021).

Brighton did, however, beat the Reds 3-2 in their last meeting in May, but they have never beaten Liverpool in consecutive league matches before.

Fabian Hurzeler's team will fancy their chances of back-to-back victories against an out-of-sorts Liverpool, though.

The Reds have 23 points (W7 D2 L6) and have conceded 24 goals in the Premier League this season, the worst start by a reigning champion in both metrics after 15 games since Leicester City in 2016-17 (16 points, 26 conceded).

An Anfield farewell for Liverpool legend Salah?

Ahead of facing Inter, Slot conceded he was unsure whether Salah had worn the famous red of Liverpool for the final time, but he did insist there was a way back into his plans for the Egyptian, who departs for the Africa Cup of Nations next week. 

After their late collapse at Elland Road, Salah suggested Liverpool had "thrown him under the bus", having been left to watch the drama unfold from the bench. 

Indeed, the 33-year-old has been an unused substitute in two of Liverpool's last three Premier League matches. He had only been an unused sub in three of the first 303 matchday squads he featured in for the Reds before that.

Salah does, however, have credit in the bank given his successful eight-and-a-half-year stint at Anfield.

Since Salah made the move to Liverpool in June 2017, only Jordan Pickford (308) has played in more Premier League games for any club than the winger has (301), while he also tops the charts for goals (188) in the top flight during that timeframe. 

However, this season marks his lowest tallies per 90 minutes for Liverpool for shots (2.6), shots on target (0.8) and touches in the opposition box (7.3), so one could argue that Slot's decision is justified, given his team have gone unbeaten since dropping him from the starting XI.

But the Liverpool boss may be inclined to reintegrate Salah back into his ranks, especially with Cody Gakpo a doubt after missing their win over Inter through injury. 

Salah has 10 goals in 16 Premier League outings against Brighton, only managing more against West Ham, Southampton (both 11), Tottenham, Bournemouth (both 12) and Manchester United (13).

Slot may also take the initiative that attack is indeed the best form of defence given Liverpool's struggles at the back, despite registering their sixth clean sheet in all competitions this season in midweek. 

The Reds have conceded 48 goals in 35 Premier League games in 2025 – only twice before have they shipped 50 or more goals in a year in the competition, doing so in 2012 (51) and 2014 (52).

A much-needed three points in the Champions League will have alleviated some pressure off Slot's shoulders, but Liverpool's poor start to the campaign is there for all to see, particularly at the start of games. 

Liverpool have also failed to score in the opening 45 minutes in any of their last five Premier League matches, their longest run without a first half goal since between January and March 2021 (eight games).

This season represents their lowest share of first-half goals (25%, six out of 24) in a Premier League campaign.

Salah could be key to ending that particular stretch, but it remains to be seen whether he will be involved in any capacity, thus potentially bringing a stellar stint on Merseyside to an unfortunate ending. 

Hurzeler out to end festive hoodoo

Brighton needed a last-minute leveller from Georginio Rutter to seal a share of the spoils against West Ham last time out, ensuring they did not follow up their 4-3 defeat to Aston Villa with another loss on home soil. 

But the Seagulls have impressed on the road. They have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two away Premier League matches – in their victory over Nottingham Forest and stalemate with rivals Crystal Palace.

Although, the Seagulls have failed to keep three in a row since doing so between March and July 2020.

Similar to Slot's potential game plan, Brighton could fight fire with fire as they look to heap more misery on Liverpool's defensive woes in the top flight in 2025-26. 

Only Manchester United (26), Arsenal (28) and Manchester City (35) have scored more goals in the Premier League this season than the Seagulls (25, level with Chelsea). 

But this weekend's visitors might want to refrain from landing the first blow. Indeed, the team scoring first has not won any of the last four Premier League meetings between Brighton and Liverpool (D1 L3), since a 3-0 victory for the Seagulls in January 2023.

Hurzeler has won 22 of his 53 Premier League matches since replacing Roberto De Zerbi in June 2024 (D18 L13), but the Brighton boss seems to struggle to get into the Christmas spirit. 

That is because Brighton are winless in their last eight Premier League matches in December (D5 L3).

Hurzeler has won a match in each of the other nine months he has taken charge of the Seagulls, with the exception of the festive month, and he will be out to end that run here. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Dominik Szoboszlai

There is no doubt that Dominik Szoboszlai has been Liverpool's standout player in what has been a difficult season for Slot's men. 

Szoboszlai has been directly involved in more goals than any other Liverpool player this season in all competitions (10 – five goals, five assists), with his goal against Inter just the second time he has scored in consecutive appearances for the club (previously in February this year).

The Hungarian has also created the joint-most chances in the Premier League for the Reds (28, level with Salah), and you feel he will have a huge influence on the game. 

Brighton – Jan Paul van Hecke

Jan Paul van Hecke is known for his impressive displays in defence, but he has also proved he can be a threat at the other end of the pitch, having registered three goal contributions (two goals, one assist) in his last two Premier League matches. 

He has also made 217 line-breaking passes in the Premier League this season, more than any other player, with Bournemouth's Marcos Senesi in second with 159.