The Numbers Game: Klassiker rivals meet with unbeaten Bundesliga streaks on the line

The top two in the Bundesliga are going head-to-head in the 138th Klassiker on Saturday, with both Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund determined to protect their stellar starts.

Reigning champions Bayern have got their title defence off to a perfect start, winning all six of their matches so far – a run that stretches to 10 if you include all competitions.

Meanwhile, Dortmund are just four points behind the early pacesetters and are the only other unbeaten team left in the Bundesliga, having won four and drawn two of their matches so far.

One record is set to come to an end this weekend, but with Bayern (15 games) and Dortmund (14) currently on the two longest unbeaten streaks in Europe's big five leagues, who will blink first?

Both teams also boast the sternest defences in the competition, but with Harry Kane in fine form and Serhou Guirassy passed fit for the match, a goalfest is expected.

But which of the fierce rivals will come out of the weekend with the bragging rights?

Here, we delve into the Opta data to see who is likely to come out on top at the Allianz Arena.

What's expected?

Given the impressive starts by Bayern and Dortmund, both sides will be keen to continue their respective streaks, but one will have to give in on Saturday.

This is the most-played Bundesliga fixture in German professional football, and Dortmund have won 33 of the previous 137 meetings between the sides.

Against no other opponent have Bayern suffered more defeats, and they are currently on a three-game winless run against Dortmund (D2 L1). It is their longest such streak since a five-match run between 2010 and 2012.

Prior to that run, which saw them draw both meetings last season, Bayern were unbeaten in 10 matches against Dortmund (W9 D1).

Dortmund have won their last two Bundesliga away games against the reigning champions, triumphing 2-0 at Bayern in March 2024 and 4-2 at Bayer Leverkusen in May 2025.

Should they come away from Munich with all three points this weekend, they will equal a league record of three consecutive wins against the title-holders, previously set by BVB themselves (2009-2014) and FC Koln (1968-1969).

However, it is Bayern that are expected to come out on top this time around and make it seven wins from seven at the start of the season, winning 66.5% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Dortmund's chances of extending their unbeaten streak look a lot slimmer. They are given just a 15.6% chance of getting all three points, while the likelihood of a draw sits at 17.9%.

Can Kane keep pushing Bayern on?

Bayern have so far looked unstoppable this season, but even at this early stage, they know dropping any points could prove costly, especially with Dortmund looking to close the gap.

It is the first time that Bayern have won their first six Bundesliga matches of a season since 2015-16, and their opening 10 competitive matches since their promotion to the top-flight in 1965.

And now, they have the chance to equal a Dortmund record. The Black and Yellow (in 2015-16 under Thomas Tuchel) are the only German top-flight side to have won their first 11 competitive matches of a season.

But, back to their Bundesliga form, Bayern have won each of their last eight league matches, their longest streak since 2020 when Hansi Flick led them to 14 consecutive victories.

And Kompany's side look in good shape to extend that. They have netted 25 goals already – the highest tally ever recorded at this stage of a Bundesliga season – and have scored at least three times in each of their last seven league outings.

Kane has led the line in style, making a stellar start to 2025-26. He has already scored 11 goals, including two hat-tricks, setting a new record for a player across six matchdays.

If he does hit the net against Dortmund, he will equal his personal scoring streak record in club football (seven, also between October – November 2023 for Bayern).

He has faced Dortmund four times since moving to Bayern, but has drawn a blank in three of those games. In the other, however, he netted a hat-trick in a 4-0 victory back in November 2023.

Bayern's defence have also played their part in their 100% start, though, only conceding three goals, fewer than any other side. They have also kept five consecutive clean sheets, and a sixth would equal a club record set in 1998-99.

And a shutout is exactly what Manuel Neuer will be craving ahead of a potential landmark victory.

The goalkeeper recently celebrated his 362nd win in his 529th Bundesliga game, equalling Thomas Muller's record for the most wins for a player in the competition. Should Bayern triumph on Saturday, he would secure the sole record.

Kovac has Dortmund flying high

Dortmund will be keen not to let that happen, though, as they look to continue their impressive resurgence under Kovac.

The Croat has breathed new life into Dortmund since taking over at the helm earlier this year, and after muscling them from mid-table to a Champions League place by the end of 2024-25, he looks to have made the Black and Yellow title contenders.

The supercomputer is heavily backing Bayern to go back-to-back, with Kompany's side given an 86.3% chance of clinching the league again, but Dortmund are now second-favourites at 8.3%.

Dortmund have only lost four of their 20 matches under Kovac in the Bundesliga, averaging 2.1 points per game under him. In fact, his 65% win rate is the best of any manager to take charge of more than one game.

And Guirassy, who has been passed fit by Kovac for this match after an injury scare over the international break, could prove to be pivotal.

Only Kylian Mbappe (44) and Kane (39) have scored more goals than Guirassy (32) in 2025 across Europe's top five leagues this season.

In that same span, no player has had chances with a greater cumulative expected goals (xG) value than Guirassy (34.82), while he has a shot conversion rate of 25% and has averaged a goal every 102 minutes.

He has been responsible for a third of Dortmund's Bundesliga goals this term (4/12), with Karim Adeyemi (two) the only other player to score more than once, a figure that will need to improve even if the Guinea international is in the side.

Guirassy has not scored in the league since a 2-0 win over Heidenheim (three games), which was his eighth consecutive Bundesliga game in which he had found the back of the net.

They have had eight different goalscorers, with only Augsburg (10) spreading the goals among more players, but Dortmund have, at times, proved shy in front of goal.

The Black and Yellow have had just 73 shots in six games so far, with only five teams managing fewer. They have a clinical edge that could trouble Bayern, though, as they have a 16.4% shot conversion rate and have hit the target with 32 of their efforts.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Bayern Munich – Luis Diaz

Luis Diaz has been directly involved in nine goals in his first six Bundesliga appearances (five goals, four assists).

Only teammate Harry Kane (11) has registered more direct goal involvements in his first six games for the club in the competition since detailed data collection began in 2004-05 (Erling Haaland also nine).

Diaz has so far registered 0.6 expected assists (xA), and as the highest assister, no player has a better differential than the Colombian (+3.4).

In the Bundesliga this season, only Michael Olise (22) has had more shots than Diaz (21, level with Kane), with eight of those being Opta-defined 'big' chances.

Borussia Dortmund – Julian Brandt

In their last away game against Mainz, Julian Brandt recorded at least two assists in a Bundesliga match for the tenth time.

It is a feat only bettered by Muller (22) and Franck Ribery (15) since detailed data collection began in 2004-05.

Despite playing just 258 minutes this term, Brandt has created five chances, with three of those classed as 'big' opportunities.

Only Daniel Svensson (1.7) has generated a higher expected assists (xA) tally than Brandt (1.6), but nobody on the team betters his two assists this term (level with Julian Ryerson.