Are Arsenal playing it too safe?
In the quest to become one of the best defensive teams in Europe, Arsenal may have, in fact, become too risk-averse.
By Sam McGuire
The Gunners have kicked off the 2025/26 Premier League campaign with three clean sheets in five matches. The only teams to find a way past David Raya are reigning champions Liverpool and title contenders Manchester City. The 2024/25 runners-up have the joint-best defensive record in the English top-flight with Crystal Palace and their underlying numbers are just as impressive with an xG Against total of just 3.3. Only Newcastle United (2.5) can better that figure this term.
Sir Alex Ferguson once said: “Attacks win you games, defence wins you titles.”
The idea behind that quote is that if you’re too reliant on your attack to win you games, you’ll eventually fall short in your attempts to win the league. Because, like it or not, needing to score three or four goals per game to guarantee maximum points just isn’t sustainable.
Liverpool tried it during the 2013/14 campaign and eventually fell short. The Reds scored 101 goals but conceded 50 on their way to 84 points and a runners-up position.
A clean sheet guarantees you at least one point. By removing the need for three goals for three points, you make life easier. Mikel Arteta has gone about making Arsenal one of the most solid teams in Europe.
David Raya has won back-to-back Golden Gloves following his move to Emirates. He kept 16 clean sheets during his debut campaign with the club and then followed that up with 13 last term. Only four keepers in Premier League history have more Golden Gloves than the 30-year-old shot stopper.
The issue with Arsenal, however, is that Arteta is so determined not to lose, to not give up any goals, he’s essentially nullified his own team.
Of course, the Gunners continue to be a threat from set pieces. In open-play, however, not so much. After five games, Arteta’s side have an Open-Play xG total of 3.27, a figure that sees them rank 12th. And while they have faced off against three tough opponents in Liverpool at Anfield and Manchester City at the Emirates, the Gunners have also played an out-of-sorts Manchester United at Old Trafford while hosting a struggling Nottingham Forest and a newly promoted Leeds United.
They’ve only managed an Open-Play xG of over 1.01 in one game – the 3-0 win against Nottingham Forest in Ange Postecoglou’s debut match in charge.
So while Arsenal deserve a lot of praise for limiting Liverpool to just 0.52 and Manchester City to 0.87, people should not be ignoring the fact the Gunners managed just 0.49 xG (0.3 in Open-Play) and 0.87 (0.57 in Open-Play) in these games themselves.
Yes, Arteta has figured out a way to stop the best attacking teams in the Premier League. But he hasn’t figured out a way to hurt these teams. In fact, he’s not figured out a way, in open play, to hurt many teams in the English top-flight yet.
Why the focus on open-play? Because there are no guarantees with set pieces. You can’t be heavily reliant on them.
And Arsenal didn’t spend over £150million this summer on bolstering their forward line, bringing in Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze, to then be needing set pieces to break teams down.
The fact of the matter is, the 2024/25 runners up simply cannot create anything outside of set pieces right now. It’s why Gyökeres, a goal machine for Sporting, is now averaging fewer shots on a per 90 basis than the likes of Riccardo Calafiori and Martin Ødegaard. It’s why his Non-Penalty xG total across his appearances in the Premier League is 1.34. For context, he had a 0.99 xG per 90 average in the Portuguese top-flight last term.
It’s likely why the players with the second and third highest xG for the Gunners this season are Calafiori and Jurrien Timber, two full-backs. Granted, the sample size isn’t the largest, but the patterns we’re seeing emerge are far from encouraging. The attackers aren’t heavily involved in the final phase actions. Gyökeres is struggling to impact the game, failing to have a single shot in either game against Liverpool and Manchester City. He was supposed to be the final piece of the jigsaw and Arteta seemingly has no idea how to get him firing in these big clashes.
Arsenal could again end up with the best defensive record in the Premier League, but if they can’t create chances in open-play, these clean sheets aren’t going to result in three points. There needs to be some balance to the way they play. Without it, the Gunners are always going to fall short.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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