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Poland join the Euro 2024 party but what chance do they have in Group D?

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And so it took a terrible penalty at the end of nine excellent ones to supply the final qualifying nation for Euro 2024. Wojciech Szczęsny had got nowhere near four; Danny Ward watched five fly past him. Then Dan James’ weak effort was parried away, the Dragons were slain and Poland were booking tickets to Germany. Michał Probierz’s side will be in Group D with Netherlands, France and Austria and, on the evidence of their route to the tournament, have a lot of work on to ensure they are there for anything more than making up the numbers.

By Karl Matchett

While Poland’s fortunate eventual progression to Germany ‘24 came courtesy of their Nations League adventures, Probierz has at least improved results since taking over. Draws in qualifying with Moldova and Czech Republic can hardly be described as encouraging, but the defeats stopped – Poland and Moldova both beat them before Fernando Santos was finally fired – and the defence has been more resolute.

Employing a back three system, Probierz has seen his team concede three in six games, albeit not against elite nations: Wales are the best outfit they’ve faced, while clean sheets against Latvia and Faroe Islands come with the usual asterisks of expectancy.

It’s perhaps at the other end of the pitch where the new head coach has started to knit matters together a little more notably, giving one or two players the platform to impress.

The switch to 3-5-2 has seen Nicola Zalewski in particular come to the fore, operating as left wing-back. The Roma youngster didn’t have his most productive outing against Wales, in terms of end product, but was constantly an outlet and a ball-carrier for a team which can often look one-paced and lacking real dynamism. While he naturally has a fight on his hands for minutes at club level, he has a good success rate in dribbles for Roma this term – 52% with 13 successes – and his work rate is evident from winning 70% of his tackles and 55% of all duels in Serie A this term. On the international front, 250 minutes in Euros qualifying is not a huge body of work and he’s only won 16 caps all told so far, but averaging more than one shot on target every 90 minutes, 1.81 chances created, and 2.9 successful dribbles all highlight how quickly he has come integral to their build-up play.

On the opposite flank, Przemysław Frankowski was maybe the pick of the bunch against Wales, with seven defensive actions and seven recoveries stacking up as well in one half of the pitch as his six passes into the final third and constant dangerous deliveries from wide did in the other.

Yet there’s work to be done to ensure the wide threat can provide ammunition for those who can take the chances. Robert Lewandowski’s powers are very much on the wane and he was rarely involved against the Welsh, having failed to score from eight shots against Finland in the semi. He’ll still lead the line over summer and is captain of the team, but Probierz must decide on the best way to get the most out of the 35-year-old. Karol Świderski is the current partner of choice for him but isn’t a regular goalscorer himself, with a one-in-three strike rate at international level coming largely courtesy of minnows: Andorra, San Marino and Moldova make up 40% of his international goals.

In the 120 minutes at the Cardiff City Stadium, Poland mustered precisely zero shots on target, tallied an xG of 0.45 and created only one really notable chance. All this against a goalkeeper who isn’t a regular at club level and a back three who, while resilient and well-organised, are individually of a considerably lower level than Virgil van Dijk or Dayot Upamecano, who they’ll be up against in summer.

It’s very difficult to look at this Poland squad and surmise they will have put the pieces together sufficiently by June to get out of Group D. Even a third-place finish will require them to beat Austria, almost certainly, and then snare a reasonable result elsewhere.

It can be argued that qualification for this summer’s Euros is, to an extent, a farce. Norway for example finished third in their group on 11 points – exactly the same as Poland in theirs. The Scandinavians were not handed a play-off path for a second chance; Georgia – who finished behind them in the same group – were, and have sealed their berth at the tournament. Now Poland have become another lucky loser by beating Wales, a nation who won more points than Poland did in qualifying, yet will be left watching on.

Probierz could hardly have walked into a more fortunate situation; now it’s up to him to make the most of that chance and style this team with some promise, but little impact, into a contender to knock out a heavyweight.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow Euro 2024 with xG, deep stats, and players ratings, on FotMob this summer. Download the free app here.

Poland join the Euro 2024 party but what chance do they have in Group D?

And so it took a terrible penalty at the end of nine excellent ones to supply the final qualifying nation for Euro 2024. Wojciech Szczęsny had got nowhere near four; Danny Ward watched five fly past him. Then Dan James’ weak effort was parried away, the Dragons were slain and Poland were booking tickets to Germany. Michał Probierz’s side will be in Group D with Netherlands, France and Austria and, on the evidence of their route to the tournament, have a lot of work on to ensure they are there for anything more than making up the numbers.

By Karl Matchett

While Poland’s fortunate eventual progression to Germany ‘24 came courtesy of their Nations League adventures, Probierz has at least improved results since taking over. Draws in qualifying with Moldova and Czech Republic can hardly be described as encouraging, but the defeats stopped – Poland and Moldova both beat them before Fernando Santos was finally fired – and the defence has been more resolute.

Employing a back three system, Probierz has seen his team concede three in six games, albeit not against elite nations: Wales are the best outfit they’ve faced, while clean sheets against Latvia and Faroe Islands come with the usual asterisks of expectancy.

It’s perhaps at the other end of the pitch where the new head coach has started to knit matters together a little more notably, giving one or two players the platform to impress.

The switch to 3-5-2 has seen Nicola Zalewski in particular come to the fore, operating as left wing-back. The Roma youngster didn’t have his most productive outing against Wales, in terms of end product, but was constantly an outlet and a ball-carrier for a team which can often look one-paced and lacking real dynamism. While he naturally has a fight on his hands for minutes at club level, he has a good success rate in dribbles for Roma this term – 52% with 13 successes – and his work rate is evident from winning 70% of his tackles and 55% of all duels in Serie A this term. On the international front, 250 minutes in Euros qualifying is not a huge body of work and he’s only won 16 caps all told so far, but averaging more than one shot on target every 90 minutes, 1.81 chances created, and 2.9 successful dribbles all highlight how quickly he has come integral to their build-up play.

On the opposite flank, Przemysław Frankowski was maybe the pick of the bunch against Wales, with seven defensive actions and seven recoveries stacking up as well in one half of the pitch as his six passes into the final third and constant dangerous deliveries from wide did in the other.

Yet there’s work to be done to ensure the wide threat can provide ammunition for those who can take the chances. Robert Lewandowski’s powers are very much on the wane and he was rarely involved against the Welsh, having failed to score from eight shots against Finland in the semi. He’ll still lead the line over summer and is captain of the team, but Probierz must decide on the best way to get the most out of the 35-year-old. Karol Świderski is the current partner of choice for him but isn’t a regular goalscorer himself, with a one-in-three strike rate at international level coming largely courtesy of minnows: Andorra, San Marino and Moldova make up 40% of his international goals.

In the 120 minutes at the Cardiff City Stadium, Poland mustered precisely zero shots on target, tallied an xG of 0.45 and created only one really notable chance. All this against a goalkeeper who isn’t a regular at club level and a back three who, while resilient and well-organised, are individually of a considerably lower level than Virgil van Dijk or Dayot Upamecano, who they’ll be up against in summer.

It’s very difficult to look at this Poland squad and surmise they will have put the pieces together sufficiently by June to get out of Group D. Even a third-place finish will require them to beat Austria, almost certainly, and then snare a reasonable result elsewhere.

It can be argued that qualification for this summer’s Euros is, to an extent, a farce. Norway for example finished third in their group on 11 points – exactly the same as Poland in theirs. The Scandinavians were not handed a play-off path for a second chance; Georgia – who finished behind them in the same group – were, and have sealed their berth at the tournament. Now Poland have become another lucky loser by beating Wales, a nation who won more points than Poland did in qualifying, yet will be left watching on.

Probierz could hardly have walked into a more fortunate situation; now it’s up to him to make the most of that chance and style this team with some promise, but little impact, into a contender to knock out a heavyweight.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow Euro 2024 with xG, deep stats, and players ratings, on FotMob this summer. Download the free app here.