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European Hot Shots: Sporting frontman Viktor Gyokeres

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It sounds strange to say now given he’s recognised as a goal machine but there was a time when Viktor Gyökeres was not known for his goalscoring ability.

By Sam McGuire

Gyökeres had caught the eye as a teenager turning out for the Brommapojkarna in the Swedish second tier prior to his move to Brighton but that was about it. While playing in his homeland, Gyökeres scored 13 goals in 29 appearances and it was this form that put him on the radar of the Seagulls. 

They swooped in, bringing the 6ft2 striker to England in January 2018. He eventually went on to make eight appearances across all competitions during the three-and-a-half seasons he was with the club. While at the Amex, he was loaned out to St. Pauli in the German second tier before back-to-back loan spells in the Championship with Swansea City and Coventry City. 

Gyökeres scored a combined 11 goals across these three loans but he did enough while with Coventry to convince them to sign him on a permanent basis. At the time, few people acknowledged the move. After all, Brighton, famed for their nous in the transfer window, rarely make mistakes. 

Yet this is one of them. 

In his first full season, the 2021/22 campaign, with the Sky Blues, he found the back of the net 17 times in the Championship. He followed that up with 21 goals last term to earn himself a €20million move to Sporting CP. 

After his exploits in the Championship, a number of Premier League clubs were reportedly interested in the Sweden international but none of them were confident enough to pull the trigger. It allowed Sporting to swoop in and make him their new No. 9. 

You wouldn’t think there was pressure on the shoulders of Gyökeres heading into this season. A big price tag, a new league to adapt to, and the expectation of spearheading Sporting to a title challenge. 

He’s thrived since the move to the Portuguese capital. 

The 25-year-old has an astonishing 22 goals and 10 assists in just 25 appearances in Liga Portugal. He’s helped fire Rúben Amorim’s men to the top of the league, currently holding a one-point lead over neighbours Benfica with a game in hand. 

His value has almost trebled, with a current market valuation of €57million, while reports suggest Sporting will only listen to offers in excess of €70million for the 20-cap international. The former-Brighton striker is reportedly being courted by both Arsenal and Chelsea with the two Premier League clubs looking to bolster their attacking options. 

You can’t blame the Portuguese club for wanting big money for their main man. 

Gyökeres has proven himself to be an elite finisher and these are hard to come by. A lot of strikers are chance magnets but few have the calmness or the composure in the penalty area to convert at the ridiculous rate he is. 

The ex-Coventry man is averaging a decent number of shots per 90 in the Portuguese top flight (3.4) but by no means is his output unsustainable. So, that is the first box ticked. But when you delve a little deeper and look at his underlying numbers, the picture becomes a little clearer. 

His 22 goals from an Expected Goals total of 15.45 is a little misleading. At a glance, that sort of overperformance is a red flag. At some point, the bubble will burst. Players rarely run that hot for sustained periods. Generally speaking, if you buy now, you are paying for the overperformance and it makes it impossible for the player to live up to the price tag. 

However, this might not be the case with Gyökeres. You see, while his Expected Goals haul is 6.5 shy of his actual return this season, his Expected Goals on Target total is just 1.11 down on his 22 goals. This particular metric assigns a value to where the shots land on target. If a player takes a low-value effort but manages to hit the corner, the value of the shot increases. The Sporting No. 9 is improving the chances of him scoring with his shot placement and this is what makes his return sustainable. 

You can see with his shot map (above), he’s hitting the corners a lot of the time. He also has a knack for hitting shots early, which catches goalkeepers off guard and this, again, increases the likelihood of a goal being scored. 

Yes, he’s running hot, but he’s running hot in a way that appears to be sustainable. He isn’t going to drastically lose his finishing ability. He may go through a barren spell now and then, like all top attackers do, but looking at his data this season he’ll be a permanent goal threat. He’s going to be one of the most sought-after strikers across Europe this summer. 

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Sporting game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

European Hot Shots: Sporting frontman Viktor Gyokeres

It sounds strange to say now given he’s recognised as a goal machine but there was a time when Viktor Gyökeres was not known for his goalscoring ability.

By Sam McGuire

Gyökeres had caught the eye as a teenager turning out for the Brommapojkarna in the Swedish second tier prior to his move to Brighton but that was about it. While playing in his homeland, Gyökeres scored 13 goals in 29 appearances and it was this form that put him on the radar of the Seagulls. 

They swooped in, bringing the 6ft2 striker to England in January 2018. He eventually went on to make eight appearances across all competitions during the three-and-a-half seasons he was with the club. While at the Amex, he was loaned out to St. Pauli in the German second tier before back-to-back loan spells in the Championship with Swansea City and Coventry City. 

Gyökeres scored a combined 11 goals across these three loans but he did enough while with Coventry to convince them to sign him on a permanent basis. At the time, few people acknowledged the move. After all, Brighton, famed for their nous in the transfer window, rarely make mistakes. 

Yet this is one of them. 

In his first full season, the 2021/22 campaign, with the Sky Blues, he found the back of the net 17 times in the Championship. He followed that up with 21 goals last term to earn himself a €20million move to Sporting CP. 

After his exploits in the Championship, a number of Premier League clubs were reportedly interested in the Sweden international but none of them were confident enough to pull the trigger. It allowed Sporting to swoop in and make him their new No. 9. 

You wouldn’t think there was pressure on the shoulders of Gyökeres heading into this season. A big price tag, a new league to adapt to, and the expectation of spearheading Sporting to a title challenge. 

He’s thrived since the move to the Portuguese capital. 

The 25-year-old has an astonishing 22 goals and 10 assists in just 25 appearances in Liga Portugal. He’s helped fire Rúben Amorim’s men to the top of the league, currently holding a one-point lead over neighbours Benfica with a game in hand. 

His value has almost trebled, with a current market valuation of €57million, while reports suggest Sporting will only listen to offers in excess of €70million for the 20-cap international. The former-Brighton striker is reportedly being courted by both Arsenal and Chelsea with the two Premier League clubs looking to bolster their attacking options. 

You can’t blame the Portuguese club for wanting big money for their main man. 

Gyökeres has proven himself to be an elite finisher and these are hard to come by. A lot of strikers are chance magnets but few have the calmness or the composure in the penalty area to convert at the ridiculous rate he is. 

The ex-Coventry man is averaging a decent number of shots per 90 in the Portuguese top flight (3.4) but by no means is his output unsustainable. So, that is the first box ticked. But when you delve a little deeper and look at his underlying numbers, the picture becomes a little clearer. 

His 22 goals from an Expected Goals total of 15.45 is a little misleading. At a glance, that sort of overperformance is a red flag. At some point, the bubble will burst. Players rarely run that hot for sustained periods. Generally speaking, if you buy now, you are paying for the overperformance and it makes it impossible for the player to live up to the price tag. 

However, this might not be the case with Gyökeres. You see, while his Expected Goals haul is 6.5 shy of his actual return this season, his Expected Goals on Target total is just 1.11 down on his 22 goals. This particular metric assigns a value to where the shots land on target. If a player takes a low-value effort but manages to hit the corner, the value of the shot increases. The Sporting No. 9 is improving the chances of him scoring with his shot placement and this is what makes his return sustainable. 

You can see with his shot map (above), he’s hitting the corners a lot of the time. He also has a knack for hitting shots early, which catches goalkeepers off guard and this, again, increases the likelihood of a goal being scored. 

Yes, he’s running hot, but he’s running hot in a way that appears to be sustainable. He isn’t going to drastically lose his finishing ability. He may go through a barren spell now and then, like all top attackers do, but looking at his data this season he’ll be a permanent goal threat. He’s going to be one of the most sought-after strikers across Europe this summer. 

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Sporting game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.