News

Can Tammy Abraham fill the boots of Romelu Lukaku after finally returning from injury?

Share

A grand total of 307 days passed between Serie A appearances for Tammy Abraham, almost a full year on the sidelines after an ACL tear on the final day of last season saw him miss almost the entirety of 2023/24. His reappearance off the bench against Lazio, and another last week against AC Milan in the Europa League, bring him to 20 minutes of action: a slow, careful return with only half an eye on the remainder of this year, perhaps. The bigger picture for AS Roma is of whether he can fill a rather large void next term.

By Karl Matchett

That’s due to the impending departure of Romelu Lukaku, of course. The team’s first-choice striker this season, his loan from Chelsea will end in summer, and the Belgian is tipped for a transfer to the Saudi league to join the likes of Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Huge wages and still a big transfer fee to be paid if anyone wants him permanently means much of the Italian top flight have no chance of landing him for more than one campaign, while any hint of a return to Stamford Bridge has surely long since been burned.

As such it presents both a problem and an opportunity for the Giallorossi: Lukaku’s 17 goals across Serie A and the Europa League have been a big contribution naturally, but he hasn’t been the main man since Daniele De Rossi took over. That award goes to Paulo Dybala, who has seven goals and two assists in league play since the former midfield legend was appointed as Roma boss in mid-January. By contrast, it’s two goasl in his last 11 for Lukaku. Even so, he’s a big presence, constantly available and often involved in the final pass or shot, though not perhaps as much as could be expected: 10 efforts at goal and eight key passes over his last six league games.

Roma share chances around and there’s scope for runners from behind the No. 9 to try their luck with some regularity – meaning the focal point of the attack must be a good link-up player, as well as capable of taking chances themselves. Which brings us back to Abraham.

The English striker had a fragmented 22/23 season, in and out the starting lineup but still playing almost 2,200 league minutes. Across that time he averaged 1.35 chances created per 90 minutes, along with 2.54 shots per 90 which tallied an xG/90 of 0.44. In all three cases, they top Lukaku’s numbers this year: 0.89 chances, 2.09 shots and 0.33 xG, all per 90.

And that was in a hit-and-miss campaign where Abraham scored eight times in Serie A. Prior to that he scored 17 in 3,000 minutes in 21/22 – still creating more than one chance per game on average, and taking close to three shots. His xG/90 that season ranked him above 91% of similar strikers, while he was also above 79% of them for duels won and aerials won. Last term was even better in that regard.

While direct comparisons in metrics are not necessarily helpful given the change in manager, it’s notable that Lukaku ranks above just 43% of Serie A strikers for shots on target this season, 52% for touches in the box, 46% for successful passes, 35% for chances created and a lowly 32% for duels won. On a wider lens view outside just Italy, while Lukaku ranks above 93% of forwards for goals, he’s above just 22% for touches and 6% for defensive actions. Even aerials won, where he is often utilised in-game as an out-ball and for attempted chance creation, he’s only above 53%.

All in all, there’s scope for quite significant improvement on what Lukaku has offered Roma this term – and more than a little reason to suspect that Abraham, once fully fit, is capable of giving it to them.

There is, of course, a journey to still travel down that particular path to ensure he’s ready and firing for 2024/25. Come summer, he’ll have two years remaining on his contract and, aged 26, should be heading into his prime years. It’s clear that Roma have put themselves back on a positive path with De Rossi’s appointment and Abraham offers a stylistic fit – but he’ll also have the returning Andrea Belotti to contend with, himself hoping for far better fortunes next season after a disappointing loan spell with Fiorentina.

The job for Abraham between now and summer is to maintain steady improvements to his fitness and, when the chance arises, show De Rossi that he can be the long-term answer up front. Then, perhaps, he can start to also consider whether adding to his 11 England caps could yet be on the agenda.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Roma game with xG, deep stats, and players ratings, on FotMob this season. Download the free app here.

Can Tammy Abraham fill the boots of Romelu Lukaku after finally returning from injury?

A grand total of 307 days passed between Serie A appearances for Tammy Abraham, almost a full year on the sidelines after an ACL tear on the final day of last season saw him miss almost the entirety of 2023/24. His reappearance off the bench against Lazio, and another last week against AC Milan in the Europa League, bring him to 20 minutes of action: a slow, careful return with only half an eye on the remainder of this year, perhaps. The bigger picture for AS Roma is of whether he can fill a rather large void next term.

By Karl Matchett

That’s due to the impending departure of Romelu Lukaku, of course. The team’s first-choice striker this season, his loan from Chelsea will end in summer, and the Belgian is tipped for a transfer to the Saudi league to join the likes of Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Huge wages and still a big transfer fee to be paid if anyone wants him permanently means much of the Italian top flight have no chance of landing him for more than one campaign, while any hint of a return to Stamford Bridge has surely long since been burned.

As such it presents both a problem and an opportunity for the Giallorossi: Lukaku’s 17 goals across Serie A and the Europa League have been a big contribution naturally, but he hasn’t been the main man since Daniele De Rossi took over. That award goes to Paulo Dybala, who has seven goals and two assists in league play since the former midfield legend was appointed as Roma boss in mid-January. By contrast, it’s two goasl in his last 11 for Lukaku. Even so, he’s a big presence, constantly available and often involved in the final pass or shot, though not perhaps as much as could be expected: 10 efforts at goal and eight key passes over his last six league games.

Roma share chances around and there’s scope for runners from behind the No. 9 to try their luck with some regularity – meaning the focal point of the attack must be a good link-up player, as well as capable of taking chances themselves. Which brings us back to Abraham.

The English striker had a fragmented 22/23 season, in and out the starting lineup but still playing almost 2,200 league minutes. Across that time he averaged 1.35 chances created per 90 minutes, along with 2.54 shots per 90 which tallied an xG/90 of 0.44. In all three cases, they top Lukaku’s numbers this year: 0.89 chances, 2.09 shots and 0.33 xG, all per 90.

And that was in a hit-and-miss campaign where Abraham scored eight times in Serie A. Prior to that he scored 17 in 3,000 minutes in 21/22 – still creating more than one chance per game on average, and taking close to three shots. His xG/90 that season ranked him above 91% of similar strikers, while he was also above 79% of them for duels won and aerials won. Last term was even better in that regard.

While direct comparisons in metrics are not necessarily helpful given the change in manager, it’s notable that Lukaku ranks above just 43% of Serie A strikers for shots on target this season, 52% for touches in the box, 46% for successful passes, 35% for chances created and a lowly 32% for duels won. On a wider lens view outside just Italy, while Lukaku ranks above 93% of forwards for goals, he’s above just 22% for touches and 6% for defensive actions. Even aerials won, where he is often utilised in-game as an out-ball and for attempted chance creation, he’s only above 53%.

All in all, there’s scope for quite significant improvement on what Lukaku has offered Roma this term – and more than a little reason to suspect that Abraham, once fully fit, is capable of giving it to them.

There is, of course, a journey to still travel down that particular path to ensure he’s ready and firing for 2024/25. Come summer, he’ll have two years remaining on his contract and, aged 26, should be heading into his prime years. It’s clear that Roma have put themselves back on a positive path with De Rossi’s appointment and Abraham offers a stylistic fit – but he’ll also have the returning Andrea Belotti to contend with, himself hoping for far better fortunes next season after a disappointing loan spell with Fiorentina.

The job for Abraham between now and summer is to maintain steady improvements to his fitness and, when the chance arises, show De Rossi that he can be the long-term answer up front. Then, perhaps, he can start to also consider whether adding to his 11 England caps could yet be on the agenda.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Roma game with xG, deep stats, and players ratings, on FotMob this season. Download the free app here.