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AFCON Group Stage Review: Logic-Defying Drama as Giants Crash Out and Minnows Advance

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The group stage of this AFCON was perhaps the most dramatic and entertaining round in the tournament’s history. Every single team managed to get on the scoresheet, every single game until the final day had at least one goal, and the results could not possibly have been predicted by the boldest of fans.

By Neel Shelat

Group A: Emilio Nsue takes over, Ivory Coast survive a scare

Of course, anyone could have predicted that 34-year-old Emilio Nsue – who plies his trade for CF Intercity in Spain’s third tier – would be the top scorer at the end of the group stage ahead of the likes of Victor Osimhen and Mohamed Salah.

His incredibly clinical finishing enabled Equatorial Guinea to surprisingly top Group A, where the big story was the fate of the hosts.

The Ivory Coast’s tournament got off to a good start as they defeated Guinea-Bissau in the opener, but a subsequent loss to Nigeria left them needing at least a point in their final group match to be sure of reaching the knockouts. Instead, they got thrashed 4-0 by the group winners, putting themselves in real jeopardy.

For the next three or so days, everyone had their calculators out as the Elephants needed a specific combination of results to go through as one of the best third-placed teams. It went right down to the wire, but they just about survived. Before that, though, the federation made the decision to sack Jean-Louis Gasset, so Emerse Fae will take interim charge in the knockouts.

Nigeria had some concerns going into the tournament which were not eased by a 1-1 draw against Equatorial Guinea on matchday 1, but José Peseiro’s decision to switch to a back-five thereafter proved to be a masterstroke. The Super Eagles got the better of the hosts and Guinea-Bissau, keeping a clean sheet in both matches.

Guinea-Bissau, for their part, showed some glimpses of quality, but could not string it all together for a full match and ultimately went home not only winless but also pointless.

Group B: Ghana sent packing, Egypt escape

For the third consecutive major tournament, Ghana failed to make it past the group stage. We took a closer look at some of their overarching issues in a special feature, but in summary, they looked quite disjointed on the pitch and had issues both in attack and defence. Even so, they were on course for the knockouts until a stoppage-time collapse against Mozambique which saw them throw away a two-goal lead.

Egypt were far from comfortable as well. They started off with a disappointing draw with Mozambique only thanks to a stoppage-time penalty, before sharing the spoils with Ghana as well. That left them needing something in their final group game, in which they were in trouble for a while. Even after taking the lead in stoppage time, they conceded even later to only manage a draw, but Ghana’s disastrous end saved their blushes.

The big story for the Pharoahs was Mohamed Salah’s injury issues. Some analysts argued they might actually look better without him as the likes of Omar Marmoush, Emam Ashour and Trézéguet enjoy greater freedom and responsibility, but all the drama regarding whether Salah would recover with the national team or back at Liverpool surely could not have helped the squad’s focus.

Cape Verde were the deserved group winners, and indeed the first team to book a knockout berth in this AFCON. The island nation, whose squad contained several diaspora players including a LinkedIn recruit, were tactically sound and collectively well-drilled, so they could stage yet more upsets in the knockouts.

Mozambique did quite well to hold their own against the big hitters in Egypt and Ghana, but their big defeat to Cape Verde in between those matches rather sealed their fate.

Group C: Senegal star, Cameroon scrape through

Defending champions Senegal put out a statement of intent in Group C as they won all three matches with eight goals scored and just one conceded. Aliou Cisse did not make too many changes to the title-winning set-up, but one key addition was 20-year-old midfield starlet Lamine Camara who thoroughly impressed in his two starts.

As we predicted in our tournament preview, Cameroon’s talented squad was massively held back by tactical and off-field issues under the turbulent tenure of Rigobert Song. They failed to win their first two matches and were in serious trouble in their final match against the Gambia, but two very late goals somehow saved the day for them.

Guinea effectively got the job done in their first two matches with a draw and a win respectively against Cameroon and the Gambia. They looked alright – neither too good nor glaringly bad.

The Gambia left as the only other pointless team alongside Guinea-Bissau, but they should be very proud of their performance. Their spirited comeback against Cameroon almost took them through to the knockouts, which would have been an incredible result in the circumstances as the squad suffered a near-death experience en route to the Ivory Coast.

Group D: Algeria exit winless again

The pressure was on for Algeria and Djamel Belmadi after the disappointment of the group stage exit in 2021 as well as the failure to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. Their first-half performance against Angola was sensational, but they never got anywhere near that level again and ultimately failed to win any of their matches. The head coach made some bold calls but also quite a few questionable decisions, which ended up costing him his job as Algeria crashed out.

Mauritania were the ones who profited the most from the 2019 champions’ struggles. Their final group match-up was billed as a must-win for Algeria, but instead, it was the Amir Abdou’s side who registered their first-ever AFCON win at the ninth attempt and snuck into a knockout spot in the process.

Angola were the surprise group toppers, as they managed to beat both the other qualifiers. They might not have any big-name stars, but just like Cape Verde, they played some very solid and effective football which no opponent will fancy facing.

Burkina Faso have made a habit of overachieving at recent AFCONs, so their second-place finish in this group should not be considered much of a surprise. Their recent knockout pedigree means they too could stage an upset or two.

Group E: Tunisia fail to turn up

After all the matchday 3 drama in the above groups, Group E was quite a let-down as it threw up the first goalless draws of the tournament,

The chief culprits for that have to be Tunisia. They were the Pot 1 team in this group but seemed far from convincing going into the tournament as we highlighted in our preview. Jalel Kadri could be accused of adopting an excessively negative approach as the Carthage Eagles scored just one goal in three games despite possessing some pretty talented attackers, so his departure on the back of this exit seems justified.

Namibia made the most of this by registering their first-ever AFCON win against Tunisia on matchday 1, after which a mutually beneficial goalless draw against Mali on the final day set up their knockout debut. They did get thrashed by South Africa between those two matches but were rather hard done by the scoreline, so the Brave Warriors should not be completely written off in the Round of 16.

South Africa marked their return to AFCON by booking a knockout berth again, although their performances fluctuated a bit. They were rather outplayed after missing an early penalty in the opener against Mali, but then thrashed Namibia before comfortably getting the job done in a draw against Tunisia.

Largely thanks to the lack of threat from the other teams in this group, Mali managed to cruise through even without getting into top gear. They can take a good deal of confidence from an unbeaten record and two clean sheets, so they should aim to kick on in the knockouts.

Group F: Morocco save the hosts

Group F had a somewhat similar dearth of quality, although Morocco gave a decent account of themselves. Their right-sided triangle of Hakim Ziyech, Azzedine Ounahi and Achraf Hakimi looked particularly threatening when they got going. Partly thanks to the threat of that trio as well as their defensive solidity, the Atlas Lions should certainly be placed among the favourites.

DR Congo somewhat flattered to deceive. They looked quite threatening in some spells but rather disjointed in others, while some questionable selection calls such as Sébastien Desabre’s refusal to field Braga striker Simon Banza seemed to hold them back. Three draws were enough for them to advance, and they seem to have the potential to be tricky customers in the knockouts.

Everyone in the Ivory Coast was praying on Zambia’s downfall in the last group stage kick-off as they were the final team standing between the hosts and a knockout berth. A draw – like they managed in their first two games – would have been enough, but they put out a pretty flat performance and fell short against Morocco.

Tanzania were arguably the worst team at this AFCON even though they picked up two points. They created the lowest xG tally and never really looked threatening on the pitch, although their mid-tournament coaching change could not have helped. Adel Amrouche first got an eight-match touchline ban from CAF for his comments after the opener against Morocco, after which the federation decided to suspend him anyway.

Looking Ahead: Round of 16

All the drama in the group stage has produced a brilliant bracket, as we have some incredibly spicy ties lined up in the Round of 16.

Senegal vs Ivory Coast has to be the headline-grabber as the hosts will look to make the most of their second chance against the defending champions and favourites, so that could be a blockbuster. Nigeria vs Cameroon, a West African derby, could be another cracker.

Meanwhile, many of the minnows and knockout debutantes have a golden opportunity to continue their memorable runs. Angola vs Namibia and Cape Verde vs Burkina Faso are the two ties that stand out in this respect, but watch out for Equatorial Guinea as well.

The group stage of this AFCON was perhaps the best we have ever witnessed, so let us hope the knockouts can live up to that billing.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Africa Cup of Nations, with deep stats and players ratings, on FotMob. Download the free app here.

AFCON Group Stage Review: Logic-Defying Drama as Giants Crash Out and Minnows Advance

The group stage of this AFCON was perhaps the most dramatic and entertaining round in the tournament’s history. Every single team managed to get on the scoresheet, every single game until the final day had at least one goal, and the results could not possibly have been predicted by the boldest of fans.

By Neel Shelat

Group A: Emilio Nsue takes over, Ivory Coast survive a scare

Of course, anyone could have predicted that 34-year-old Emilio Nsue – who plies his trade for CF Intercity in Spain’s third tier – would be the top scorer at the end of the group stage ahead of the likes of Victor Osimhen and Mohamed Salah.

His incredibly clinical finishing enabled Equatorial Guinea to surprisingly top Group A, where the big story was the fate of the hosts.

The Ivory Coast’s tournament got off to a good start as they defeated Guinea-Bissau in the opener, but a subsequent loss to Nigeria left them needing at least a point in their final group match to be sure of reaching the knockouts. Instead, they got thrashed 4-0 by the group winners, putting themselves in real jeopardy.

For the next three or so days, everyone had their calculators out as the Elephants needed a specific combination of results to go through as one of the best third-placed teams. It went right down to the wire, but they just about survived. Before that, though, the federation made the decision to sack Jean-Louis Gasset, so Emerse Fae will take interim charge in the knockouts.

Nigeria had some concerns going into the tournament which were not eased by a 1-1 draw against Equatorial Guinea on matchday 1, but José Peseiro’s decision to switch to a back-five thereafter proved to be a masterstroke. The Super Eagles got the better of the hosts and Guinea-Bissau, keeping a clean sheet in both matches.

Guinea-Bissau, for their part, showed some glimpses of quality, but could not string it all together for a full match and ultimately went home not only winless but also pointless.

Group B: Ghana sent packing, Egypt escape

For the third consecutive major tournament, Ghana failed to make it past the group stage. We took a closer look at some of their overarching issues in a special feature, but in summary, they looked quite disjointed on the pitch and had issues both in attack and defence. Even so, they were on course for the knockouts until a stoppage-time collapse against Mozambique which saw them throw away a two-goal lead.

Egypt were far from comfortable as well. They started off with a disappointing draw with Mozambique only thanks to a stoppage-time penalty, before sharing the spoils with Ghana as well. That left them needing something in their final group game, in which they were in trouble for a while. Even after taking the lead in stoppage time, they conceded even later to only manage a draw, but Ghana’s disastrous end saved their blushes.

The big story for the Pharoahs was Mohamed Salah’s injury issues. Some analysts argued they might actually look better without him as the likes of Omar Marmoush, Emam Ashour and Trézéguet enjoy greater freedom and responsibility, but all the drama regarding whether Salah would recover with the national team or back at Liverpool surely could not have helped the squad’s focus.

Cape Verde were the deserved group winners, and indeed the first team to book a knockout berth in this AFCON. The island nation, whose squad contained several diaspora players including a LinkedIn recruit, were tactically sound and collectively well-drilled, so they could stage yet more upsets in the knockouts.

Mozambique did quite well to hold their own against the big hitters in Egypt and Ghana, but their big defeat to Cape Verde in between those matches rather sealed their fate.

Group C: Senegal star, Cameroon scrape through

Defending champions Senegal put out a statement of intent in Group C as they won all three matches with eight goals scored and just one conceded. Aliou Cisse did not make too many changes to the title-winning set-up, but one key addition was 20-year-old midfield starlet Lamine Camara who thoroughly impressed in his two starts.

As we predicted in our tournament preview, Cameroon’s talented squad was massively held back by tactical and off-field issues under the turbulent tenure of Rigobert Song. They failed to win their first two matches and were in serious trouble in their final match against the Gambia, but two very late goals somehow saved the day for them.

Guinea effectively got the job done in their first two matches with a draw and a win respectively against Cameroon and the Gambia. They looked alright – neither too good nor glaringly bad.

The Gambia left as the only other pointless team alongside Guinea-Bissau, but they should be very proud of their performance. Their spirited comeback against Cameroon almost took them through to the knockouts, which would have been an incredible result in the circumstances as the squad suffered a near-death experience en route to the Ivory Coast.

Group D: Algeria exit winless again

The pressure was on for Algeria and Djamel Belmadi after the disappointment of the group stage exit in 2021 as well as the failure to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. Their first-half performance against Angola was sensational, but they never got anywhere near that level again and ultimately failed to win any of their matches. The head coach made some bold calls but also quite a few questionable decisions, which ended up costing him his job as Algeria crashed out.

Mauritania were the ones who profited the most from the 2019 champions’ struggles. Their final group match-up was billed as a must-win for Algeria, but instead, it was the Amir Abdou’s side who registered their first-ever AFCON win at the ninth attempt and snuck into a knockout spot in the process.

Angola were the surprise group toppers, as they managed to beat both the other qualifiers. They might not have any big-name stars, but just like Cape Verde, they played some very solid and effective football which no opponent will fancy facing.

Burkina Faso have made a habit of overachieving at recent AFCONs, so their second-place finish in this group should not be considered much of a surprise. Their recent knockout pedigree means they too could stage an upset or two.

Group E: Tunisia fail to turn up

After all the matchday 3 drama in the above groups, Group E was quite a let-down as it threw up the first goalless draws of the tournament,

The chief culprits for that have to be Tunisia. They were the Pot 1 team in this group but seemed far from convincing going into the tournament as we highlighted in our preview. Jalel Kadri could be accused of adopting an excessively negative approach as the Carthage Eagles scored just one goal in three games despite possessing some pretty talented attackers, so his departure on the back of this exit seems justified.

Namibia made the most of this by registering their first-ever AFCON win against Tunisia on matchday 1, after which a mutually beneficial goalless draw against Mali on the final day set up their knockout debut. They did get thrashed by South Africa between those two matches but were rather hard done by the scoreline, so the Brave Warriors should not be completely written off in the Round of 16.

South Africa marked their return to AFCON by booking a knockout berth again, although their performances fluctuated a bit. They were rather outplayed after missing an early penalty in the opener against Mali, but then thrashed Namibia before comfortably getting the job done in a draw against Tunisia.

Largely thanks to the lack of threat from the other teams in this group, Mali managed to cruise through even without getting into top gear. They can take a good deal of confidence from an unbeaten record and two clean sheets, so they should aim to kick on in the knockouts.

Group F: Morocco save the hosts

Group F had a somewhat similar dearth of quality, although Morocco gave a decent account of themselves. Their right-sided triangle of Hakim Ziyech, Azzedine Ounahi and Achraf Hakimi looked particularly threatening when they got going. Partly thanks to the threat of that trio as well as their defensive solidity, the Atlas Lions should certainly be placed among the favourites.

DR Congo somewhat flattered to deceive. They looked quite threatening in some spells but rather disjointed in others, while some questionable selection calls such as Sébastien Desabre’s refusal to field Braga striker Simon Banza seemed to hold them back. Three draws were enough for them to advance, and they seem to have the potential to be tricky customers in the knockouts.

Everyone in the Ivory Coast was praying on Zambia’s downfall in the last group stage kick-off as they were the final team standing between the hosts and a knockout berth. A draw – like they managed in their first two games – would have been enough, but they put out a pretty flat performance and fell short against Morocco.

Tanzania were arguably the worst team at this AFCON even though they picked up two points. They created the lowest xG tally and never really looked threatening on the pitch, although their mid-tournament coaching change could not have helped. Adel Amrouche first got an eight-match touchline ban from CAF for his comments after the opener against Morocco, after which the federation decided to suspend him anyway.

Looking Ahead: Round of 16

All the drama in the group stage has produced a brilliant bracket, as we have some incredibly spicy ties lined up in the Round of 16.

Senegal vs Ivory Coast has to be the headline-grabber as the hosts will look to make the most of their second chance against the defending champions and favourites, so that could be a blockbuster. Nigeria vs Cameroon, a West African derby, could be another cracker.

Meanwhile, many of the minnows and knockout debutantes have a golden opportunity to continue their memorable runs. Angola vs Namibia and Cape Verde vs Burkina Faso are the two ties that stand out in this respect, but watch out for Equatorial Guinea as well.

The group stage of this AFCON was perhaps the best we have ever witnessed, so let us hope the knockouts can live up to that billing.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Africa Cup of Nations, with deep stats and players ratings, on FotMob. Download the free app here.