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Analysis: Aston Villa’s Champions League Charge led by Unai Emery

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Aston Villa’s win over Arsenal may yet go down as the result that decided the title race, but it was an equally crucial win for their own Champions League hopes. The Villains currently have a three-point buffer to fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur as they seek to return to Europe’s premier club competition after over four decades.

By Neel Shelat

Prior to their Europa Conference League qualification for this season, Aston Villa’s last European tour came back in 2010. It was a very short one too, as Rapid Vienna sent them packing in the qualifying round of the Europa League. The club’s fortunes took a downward turn thereafter, as they became regular relegation-battlers in the Premier League before eventually going down in 2016.

After a disappointing first season back in the Championship, Villa began to rebuild. Their second stab at the play-offs proved successful as they defeated Frank Lampard’s Derby County at Wembley to return to the big time. After surviving by the skin of their teeth in their first season back, they aimed to keep pushing on.

The likes of Dean Smith and Steven Gerrard could not get the team into the top half of the table, so the club decided to make a statement appointment in November 2022. Unai Emery, a man with a great European pedigree as well as a big five league title on his CV was brought in from Villarreal, and he has gone on to transform the club’s fortunes in just a couple of years.

In his very first season, he took the Villains from a relegation-battling position to a seventh-placed finish that earned them a ticket to the Europa Conference League. This term, they are balancing a continental knockout run with a brilliant league campaign that has them in the Champions League places with five games left to play.

If England do earn a fifth Champions League spot for next season, Villa might as well start celebrating now. Such an incredible campaign certainly deserves a closer look, so that is what we will focus on in this week’s analysis column.

Bold Defensive Approach

The first thing that stands out about Unai Emery’s Aston Villa is their commitment to holding an incredibly high defensive line, regardless of the opposition they are facing. Whether they are at the Emirates Stadium or hosting Sheffield United, their back four starts and tends to stay as close as possible to the halfway line for as long as possible.

As a result, Aston Villa have unsurprisingly caught their opponents offside more than any other team in the league. Their tally of 147 translates to almost 4.5 offsides per match, while only one other team in the league has managed to crack 100 so far. By setting up their 4-4-2 block very high and yet quite compact, they are able to keep their opponents far away from their goal for long periods. That is why Villa have had to make the fourth-fewest clearances in the league this season.

Of course, this is a high-risk high-reward approach. So, while Villa might be the fourth-best team in the league as far as preventing shots from being taken is concerned, the average chance quality they concede is by far the highest. All things considered, since Villa don’t press overzealously. these things seem to average out as Emery’s side are perfectly mid-table when it comes to xG conceded.

When adopting such a high defensive line, it is imperative to have a brave goalkeeper who is comfortable at sweeping outside the box and can unsettle opponents one-on-one. In Emiliano Martínez, Villa have just that. The Argentine international has been the league’s best goalkeeper by goals prevented, based on the xGOT model, meaning he has been the difference-maker in taking his team’s defence from being mid-table-level, by the underlying numbers, to top-six in terms of actual goals conceded.

All this effort just to have the league’s sixth-best defence might not seem worth it, but what the overall numbers do not show is the Villains’ ability to compete with the very best teams. Thanks in no small part to their disciplined defending far away from goal, Villa have won three of their four matches against the top two, keeping clean sheets in all of those triumphs.

Tailor-Made Attacking System

Regardless of what one thinks is the “right way to play”, most would agree that a head coach’s job is to make the most of the resources at their disposal. Chief among these resources are the players, so setting up a system that gets the best out of the profiles in the squad has to be paramount in the list of a head coach’s priorities.

Seen this way, Unai Emery’s job at Aston Villa looks absolutely stellar. The squad he inherited was hardly among the best in the league, and even after a fair bit of transfer business, Villa certainly do not have the quality of serious Champions League contenders, on paper at least.

Right from day one, the Spanish tactician implemented a relatively unique in-possession system to suit his squad. When building up from goal kicks, Aston Villa’s four defenders and two central midfielders start very deep to help build up and beat any attempted press, while the front four is incredibly narrow in a box-like shape. Two players offer passing options out of the build-up, while striker Ollie Watkins peels to the left where he poses a constant threat in behind and Moussa Diaby/Leon Bailey is on the right with dynamic movement on and off the ball.

This build-up approach is suited to play to the players’ strengths while maintaining a multidimensional threat. The confident ball-players at the back can look to slice through a press and feed the two attackers poised to link play, or they can directly go to the front men in a bid to get in behind.

In settled possession further up the pitch, Villa usually move into a 3-2-4-1 shape created by asymmetric movements of the full-backs and wingers. The right back stays deep to form a back line of three, freeing up the left back to push forward as the left winger tucks inside. Again, this is suited to the player profiles in the squad such as Ezri Konsa (RB), Lucas Digne (LB) and Jacob Ramsey (LW).

It should hardly come as a surprise, then, that many of Villa’s attackers are enjoying their best-ever seasons. Five players are in double digits for goal involvements in the Premier League already, and Watkins is a league-leader by this metric.

Bailey has enjoyed a brilliant campaign too, contributing 9 goals and 8 assists to his team’s tally showing exceptional attacking output despite limited touches due to the positional demands of his role.

Diaby’s five goals and seven assists in the league have also been very handy, with his creation shining the most as he is the squad leader in terms of big chances created.

Perhaps the most surprising name on this list is versatile midfielder John McGinn. The Scottish international has made the most of the more attacking responsibilities he often gets in Emery’s system, racking up 16 goal involvements in all competitions, including a crucial goal and assist in the UECL quarter-final first leg against Lille. In fact, Villa have lost just one game all season when he has managed to get on the scoresheet.

Thanks to these consistent attacking contributors as well as Emery’s well-crafted tactics in and out of possession, Aston Villa are flying on two fronts with just over a month left until the end of the season. They are arguably favourites to lift European silverware and qualify for the Champions League, and if they manage to do that, this will surely go down as one of their greatest seasons.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Aston Villa game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Analysis: Aston Villa’s Champions League Charge led by Unai Emery

Aston Villa’s win over Arsenal may yet go down as the result that decided the title race, but it was an equally crucial win for their own Champions League hopes. The Villains currently have a three-point buffer to fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur as they seek to return to Europe’s premier club competition after over four decades.

By Neel Shelat

Prior to their Europa Conference League qualification for this season, Aston Villa’s last European tour came back in 2010. It was a very short one too, as Rapid Vienna sent them packing in the qualifying round of the Europa League. The club’s fortunes took a downward turn thereafter, as they became regular relegation-battlers in the Premier League before eventually going down in 2016.

After a disappointing first season back in the Championship, Villa began to rebuild. Their second stab at the play-offs proved successful as they defeated Frank Lampard’s Derby County at Wembley to return to the big time. After surviving by the skin of their teeth in their first season back, they aimed to keep pushing on.

The likes of Dean Smith and Steven Gerrard could not get the team into the top half of the table, so the club decided to make a statement appointment in November 2022. Unai Emery, a man with a great European pedigree as well as a big five league title on his CV was brought in from Villarreal, and he has gone on to transform the club’s fortunes in just a couple of years.

In his very first season, he took the Villains from a relegation-battling position to a seventh-placed finish that earned them a ticket to the Europa Conference League. This term, they are balancing a continental knockout run with a brilliant league campaign that has them in the Champions League places with five games left to play.

If England do earn a fifth Champions League spot for next season, Villa might as well start celebrating now. Such an incredible campaign certainly deserves a closer look, so that is what we will focus on in this week’s analysis column.

Bold Defensive Approach

The first thing that stands out about Unai Emery’s Aston Villa is their commitment to holding an incredibly high defensive line, regardless of the opposition they are facing. Whether they are at the Emirates Stadium or hosting Sheffield United, their back four starts and tends to stay as close as possible to the halfway line for as long as possible.

As a result, Aston Villa have unsurprisingly caught their opponents offside more than any other team in the league. Their tally of 147 translates to almost 4.5 offsides per match, while only one other team in the league has managed to crack 100 so far. By setting up their 4-4-2 block very high and yet quite compact, they are able to keep their opponents far away from their goal for long periods. That is why Villa have had to make the fourth-fewest clearances in the league this season.

Of course, this is a high-risk high-reward approach. So, while Villa might be the fourth-best team in the league as far as preventing shots from being taken is concerned, the average chance quality they concede is by far the highest. All things considered, since Villa don’t press overzealously. these things seem to average out as Emery’s side are perfectly mid-table when it comes to xG conceded.

When adopting such a high defensive line, it is imperative to have a brave goalkeeper who is comfortable at sweeping outside the box and can unsettle opponents one-on-one. In Emiliano Martínez, Villa have just that. The Argentine international has been the league’s best goalkeeper by goals prevented, based on the xGOT model, meaning he has been the difference-maker in taking his team’s defence from being mid-table-level, by the underlying numbers, to top-six in terms of actual goals conceded.

All this effort just to have the league’s sixth-best defence might not seem worth it, but what the overall numbers do not show is the Villains’ ability to compete with the very best teams. Thanks in no small part to their disciplined defending far away from goal, Villa have won three of their four matches against the top two, keeping clean sheets in all of those triumphs.

Tailor-Made Attacking System

Regardless of what one thinks is the “right way to play”, most would agree that a head coach’s job is to make the most of the resources at their disposal. Chief among these resources are the players, so setting up a system that gets the best out of the profiles in the squad has to be paramount in the list of a head coach’s priorities.

Seen this way, Unai Emery’s job at Aston Villa looks absolutely stellar. The squad he inherited was hardly among the best in the league, and even after a fair bit of transfer business, Villa certainly do not have the quality of serious Champions League contenders, on paper at least.

Right from day one, the Spanish tactician implemented a relatively unique in-possession system to suit his squad. When building up from goal kicks, Aston Villa’s four defenders and two central midfielders start very deep to help build up and beat any attempted press, while the front four is incredibly narrow in a box-like shape. Two players offer passing options out of the build-up, while striker Ollie Watkins peels to the left where he poses a constant threat in behind and Moussa Diaby/Leon Bailey is on the right with dynamic movement on and off the ball.

This build-up approach is suited to play to the players’ strengths while maintaining a multidimensional threat. The confident ball-players at the back can look to slice through a press and feed the two attackers poised to link play, or they can directly go to the front men in a bid to get in behind.

In settled possession further up the pitch, Villa usually move into a 3-2-4-1 shape created by asymmetric movements of the full-backs and wingers. The right back stays deep to form a back line of three, freeing up the left back to push forward as the left winger tucks inside. Again, this is suited to the player profiles in the squad such as Ezri Konsa (RB), Lucas Digne (LB) and Jacob Ramsey (LW).

It should hardly come as a surprise, then, that many of Villa’s attackers are enjoying their best-ever seasons. Five players are in double digits for goal involvements in the Premier League already, and Watkins is a league-leader by this metric.

Bailey has enjoyed a brilliant campaign too, contributing 9 goals and 8 assists to his team’s tally showing exceptional attacking output despite limited touches due to the positional demands of his role.

Diaby’s five goals and seven assists in the league have also been very handy, with his creation shining the most as he is the squad leader in terms of big chances created.

Perhaps the most surprising name on this list is versatile midfielder John McGinn. The Scottish international has made the most of the more attacking responsibilities he often gets in Emery’s system, racking up 16 goal involvements in all competitions, including a crucial goal and assist in the UECL quarter-final first leg against Lille. In fact, Villa have lost just one game all season when he has managed to get on the scoresheet.

Thanks to these consistent attacking contributors as well as Emery’s well-crafted tactics in and out of possession, Aston Villa are flying on two fronts with just over a month left until the end of the season. They are arguably favourites to lift European silverware and qualify for the Champions League, and if they manage to do that, this will surely go down as one of their greatest seasons.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Aston Villa game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.